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Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
CHA

CHA Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares · NASDAQ
Market Closed
12.24
▼ ⁦-0.89%⁩ (-0.11)
Market Cap$2.4B
Beta1.65
52w Low52w High
8.9820.57
Last Week
⁦+5.43%⁩
Last Month
⁦+19.88%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-7.20%⁩
Last Year
⁦-44.36%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall94
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 5/8Better than 94% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
87
12.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
31
-3.4%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
78
11.1%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
91
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
91
7.77%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
40
-54.0%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
72
4▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$12
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$15
⁦+19%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$10–$16⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$13.70
⁦+11.9%⁩
Current Price $12.24·Median $14.55
Low
$10.00
High
$15.70
Current price
$12.24
Average target
$13.70
Street summary

Consensus target rises with clear divergence among analysts

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target rose from 13.03 to 13.70 over the last 30 days, an increase of 5.14%, alongside an expansion in the number of analysts from one to three. Over the last seven days, however, the consensus remained unchanged, and it also stayed stable over the last day; this indicates that the recent improvement was driven mainly by broader coverage rather than a new revision in recent days. The current price of 12.24 is below the consensus and the median of 14.55, while the range is between 10 and 15.70.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+5.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.83
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦12 (+2)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
67%
High
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
47%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time12 analysts rating
2
6
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 3.83
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-28
    Macquarie
    NeutralOutperform
  • = Reiterate2026-06-21
    Goldman Sachs
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-05-31
    CLSA
    Hold· $10.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    11.99x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.43x
    2.75x22.03x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.6%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -3.4%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -35.2%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    41.2%
    12.0%66.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    11.1%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    7.8%
    0.1%5.9%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    91.0%
    8.9%99.8%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-28 data

Company Overview

Chagee operates a global network of tea cafés focused on fresh milk tea beverages made from tea leaves, with expansion into categories such as lemon milk tea, matcha milk tea, specialty beverages, and gelato. In Q2 fiscal 2026, the café count reached 7,639, including 7,240 in Greater China and 399 in overseas markets, split between 6,756 franchised cafés and 883 company-owned cafés. The revenue model relies primarily on franchised cafés, which generated 2.474 billion yuan, equivalent to 72.5% of quarterly net revenue, while company-owned cafés generated 940.6 million yuan.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, net revenue increased 2.5% year over year to 3.415 billion yuan but declined 3.7% from the previous quarter, while gross merchandise value reached 7.663 billion yuan, down 3.3% sequentially. Gross profit was 1.843 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 54%, unchanged year over year, while GAAP net income increased to 464.8 million yuan, with a margin of 13.6%, compared with 2.3% in the corresponding period. Adjusted net income was 488.7 million yuan, with a margin of 14.3%, while the company reported basic and diluted earnings per ordinary share of 2.44 and 2.42 yuan, respectively.

The business mix showed a clear divergence between Greater China and overseas markets in Q2 fiscal 2026. Gross merchandise value in Greater China reached 7.156 billion yuan and declined 4.5% sequentially, while overseas gross merchandise value increased 114.3% year over year and 18.2% sequentially to 504 million yuan. On an annual basis, EDGAR data for fiscal 2025 showed revenue of 12.9 billion dollars, net income of 1.2 billion dollars, and earnings per share of 6.18, according to the units provided in the data.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Overseas markets became the clearest growth driver in Q2 fiscal 2026, as gross merchandise value increased 114.3% year over year to 504 million yuan, and the overseas network reached 399 cafés across eight markets.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Chagee launched a record 17 products in Q2 fiscal 2026; Melon Oolong Tea averaged 110 cups per café per day in its first week, while the launch of Longjing Tea Latte increased gross merchandise value by about 25% over a 14-day period.
  • The new categories demonstrated an ability to drive visits and customer acquisition; specialty beverages averaged 124 cups per café per day during the first three days, Lemon Tea Latte increased first-time new member acquisition by 45% during its launch, and the gelato trial increased gross merchandise value through the non-digital channel by more than 20% at pilot stores.
  • Operating efficiency improved in Q2 fiscal 2026, as the adjusted general and administrative expense ratio declined to 9.1% from 13.2% a year earlier, and the adjusted selling and marketing expense ratio declined to 8.8% from 10.6%. This helped raise the operating income margin to 15.4% from 3.2% in the corresponding period.
  • The start of Q3 fiscal 2026 provided early indications of improvement in same-store sales; July 2026 recorded a low-single-digit decline, and management said it expected same-store sales to turn to positive year-over-year growth in August 2026. Management attributed this to the launch of Guava Peach Iced Tea and Lemon Tea Latte, the return of Lychee Black Milk Tea and Tieguanyin Milk Tea, and improved in-café service.
  • Capital allocation supports the stock, as Chagee had executed approximately 30 million dollars in repurchases under a program of up to 150 million dollars as of August 24, 2026. The company ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with liquidity comprising cash, restricted cash, and time deposits of 6.796 billion yuan.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +Overseas expansion provides a tangible path to diversify growth away from Greater China; overseas gross merchandise value grew 114.3% year over year in Q2 fiscal 2026, and three cafés in South Korea sold more than 16 thousand cups during their first three days.
    • +Product data demonstrates Chagee's ability to stimulate demand through innovation; Longjing Tea Latte increased gross merchandise value by about 25% over 14 days, while Lemon Tea Latte increased first-time new member acquisition by 45% during its launch.
    • +The company maintained a gross margin of 54% and achieved net profitability for the fourteenth consecutive quarter in Q2 fiscal 2026, while the operating income margin increased to 15.4% from 3.2% year over year.
    • +Chagee had a large loyalty base of 257 million registered members at the end of June 2026, with a repurchase rate exceeding 43% among active members, while members who made two or more purchases accounted for more than 78% of total orders.
    • +The company combines liquidity of 6.796 billion yuan at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026 with a repurchase program of up to 150 million dollars, of which approximately 30 million dollars had been executed as of August 24, 2026.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Performance remains heavily dependent on Greater China, which accounted for 7.156 billion yuan of total gross merchandise value of 7.663 billion yuan in Q2 fiscal 2026, while average monthly gross merchandise value per café in the region declined to 338,259 yuan from 356,080 yuan in the previous quarter.
    • −Management acknowledged that the fresh milk tea market has become crowded and that competition has shifted from shared growth to competition for a fixed demand base, alongside fragmented consumer access channels and behavioral changes driven by competition among delivery platforms.
    • −Net revenue growth slowed to 2.5% year over year in Q2 fiscal 2026, with revenue declining 3.7% sequentially and gross merchandise value declining 3.3% sequentially; the news also showed a 16.1% year-over-year decline in same-store sales in Greater China.
    • −Despite improved GAAP profitability, the adjusted operating income margin declined to 16.1% in Q2 fiscal 2026 from 17.1% in the previous quarter, while the adjusted net income margin declined to 14.3% from 18.9% a year earlier.
    • −Management described fiscal 2026 as a year of adjustment and stabilization and emphasized that rapid scale expansion is not the priority; this makes the growth trajectory dependent on the success of new products and improved same-store sales amid an uncertain economic and competitive environment.
    • −Analyst targets range from 10 dollars to 15.7 dollars, a divergence that reflects materially different assessments of the pace of recovery and overseas growth, while the highest target approaches but does not exceed the upper end of the 52-week range of 19 dollars.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of 13.7 dollars and a wide range between 10 dollars and 15.7 dollars; both the average and highest targets remain below the 52-week high of 19 dollars. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the valuation assessment is based on the target range and the 52-week range of 8.98–19 dollars, balancing overseas market growth and margin improvement against weakness in Greater China and slowing revenue.

    BuyAnalyst target: $13.7(+11.9%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove CHA's earnings in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    GAAP net income increased to 464.8 million yuan, with a margin of 13.6% compared with 2.3% a year earlier. The gross margin remained at 54%, while the operating income margin increased to 15.4% from 3.2%. The decline in the adjusted general and administrative expense ratio to 9.1% and the adjusted selling and marketing expense ratio to 8.8% helped offset limited revenue growth of 2.5%.

    Can overseas markets offset Chagee's weakness in Greater China?

    Overseas gross merchandise value reached 504 million yuan in Q2 fiscal 2026, an increase of 114.3% year over year and 18.2% sequentially. By comparison, gross merchandise value in Greater China reached 7.156 billion yuan and declined 4.5% from the previous quarter. Overseas markets therefore represent the fastest growth driver, but they remained a much smaller portion of total gross merchandise value of 7.663 billion yuan.

    What impact did new products have on Chagee's performance?

    The company launched 17 products in Q2 fiscal 2026, the highest quarterly number in its history. Melon Oolong Tea averaged 110 cups per café per day in its first week, and Longjing Tea Latte increased gross merchandise value by about 25% over 14 days. Lemon Tea Latte also increased first-time new member acquisition by 45%, and gelato reached more than 190 cafés by August 2026.

    Have Chagee's same-store sales begun to recover?

    Management said same-store sales recorded a low-single-digit decline in July 2026, an improvement from the first half of fiscal 2026. Management expected them to turn to positive year-over-year growth in August 2026 but acknowledged continued uncertainty in the external environment. It attributed the improvement to products such as Guava Peach Iced Tea and Lemon Tea Latte, the return of Lychee Black Milk Tea and Tieguanyin Milk Tea, and improved in-café service.

    How does Chagee allocate capital between expansion and shareholder returns?

    The company ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with cash, restricted cash, and time deposits of 6.796 billion yuan. As of August 24, 2026, it had executed approximately 30 million dollars under a repurchase program of up to 150 million dollars. Management also noted a special dividend of 177 million dollars in Q4 fiscal 2025, while any additional recurring dividends remained under evaluation and subject to board review and approval.

    What are the main investment risks for CHA stock?

    The majority of gross merchandise value is concentrated in Greater China, where it reached 7.156 billion yuan out of 7.663 billion yuan in Q2 fiscal 2026. During the same period, net revenue grew only 2.5% year over year and declined 3.7% sequentially amid intensifying competition in the fresh milk tea category. The adjusted operating income margin also declined to 16.1% from 17.1% sequentially, making continued cost control and a recovery in same-store sales critical factors.