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Stocks
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall67
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 7/9Better than 67% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
50
15.4x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
47
7.4%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
84
——Top tier
▸
Safety
13
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
47
2.47%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
89
24.9%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
67
11▲3Top tier
CFR

CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
162.92
▲ ⁦+0.16%⁩ (+0.26)
Market Cap$10.1B
Beta0.52
52w Low52w High
119.00170.80
Last Week
⁦+0.78%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.96%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+20.22%⁩
Last Year
⁦+23.48%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$163
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$160
⁦-2%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$149–$200⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$94
⁦-42%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$94–$160⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$167.29
⁦+2.7%⁩
Current Price $162.92·Median $160.00
Low
$149.00
High
$200.00
Current price
$162.92
Average target
$167.29
Street summary

Consensus Improves with Clear Divergence Among Analysts

The consensus price target rose from 158.86 to 167.29 over the last 7 days, an increase of 8.43 or 5.31%, and remained unchanged over the last day. The number of analysts stayed at 3, while the current range is between 149 and 200, with a median of 160 versus a current price of 161.88; reflecting notable dispersion and no clear consensus outperformance relative to the current price.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+5.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.20
Hold
Analyst coverage
15
Buy conviction
33%
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
31%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
2
3
7
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.33 → 3.20
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-08
    Morgan Stanley
    UnderweightOverweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    TD Cowen
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
    Stephens & Co.
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    15.36x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.94x
    2.76x22.06x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.4%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    14.1%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    2.5%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    37.7%
    9.8%97.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc., listed under the ticker CFR on NYSE, operates in banking services within Texas through commercial and consumer lending, deposit gathering, wealth management, and insurance brokerage. Income generation relies on net interest income from loans and the securities portfolio, alongside fees associated with accounts, cards, merchant services, asset management, and insurance. In fiscal Q2 2026, average loans totaled $22.6 billion and average deposits totaled $42.6 billion, while period-end consumer loans exceeded $4.5 billion.

According to EDGAR data, the company recorded revenue of $576.0 million, net income of $172.1 million, and earnings per share of $2.70 in fiscal Q2 2026. Management stated on the July 30, 2026 call that earnings were approximately $170 million, up 9.7% year over year, and that earnings per share rose 13% from $2.39, while return on average assets was 1.31% and return on average common equity was 15.41%. The data does not report a gross profit margin, but the net interest margin, the bank's most important operating metric, improved to 3.75% from 3.74% in the previous quarter.

The growth mix came from commercial and consumer activities, with a clear contribution from expansion branches. Consumer loans grew 20% annually, the number of consumer checking account households increased 5.7%, and expansion branches reached $3.0 billion in loans, $3.7 billion in deposits, and more than 100 thousand new households. These branches also contributed 53% of average loan growth and 72% of average deposit growth, and added $0.16, or 5.8%, to fiscal Q2 2026 earnings per share.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 30, 2026, management raised its fiscal 2026 net interest income growth forecast to a range of 4.75%–5.25% from 3.5%–5.0%, and raised its average loan growth forecast to 7%–8% from 6%–7%. It also raised its non-interest income growth forecast to 7.5%–8.5% from 4%–5%, reflecting a broader contribution from fees alongside lending income.
  • The 90-day weighted loan pipeline reached a record $2.17 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, up 11% from the previous quarter, with a roughly even split between C&I loans and CRE loans. Booked new commitments increased 23%, while new commercial relationships exceeded 1,000 for the fifth consecutive quarter.
  • Consumer loan growth exceeded 20% annually, supported by a $533 million increase in mortgage loans and $198 million in second-lien home equity products. Management reported that 45% of mortgage customers were new to the bank, and that approximately 4,000 of them added a checking account or another account with average balances of approximately $22,500.
  • Asset repricing supports the interest margin outlook; management expected more than $500 million of fixed-rate loans to reprice at a spread exceeding 120–125 basis points, and approximately $1 billion of portfolio maturities to be reinvested at an expected yield of 5.25%–5.40% versus 3.60%–3.65% for the maturing assets. A $250 million Treasury security yielding less than 1% also matures in August 2026, providing an opportunity to reinvest at a higher yield.
  • The bank planned to open five additional branches during the remainder of fiscal 2026 after opening five locations since the previous call. Expansion branches had achieved annual growth of 38% in average loans and 20% in average deposits, supporting management's assessment that the organic expansion strategy is sustainable and scalable.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Fiscal Q2 2026 showed simultaneous growth in earnings, loans, and customers; earnings presented by management rose 9.7%, earnings per share increased 13%, and average loans grew to $22.6 billion from $21.1 billion a year earlier.
  • +The fiscal 2026 outlook improved across three important areas, as guidance for net interest income, loans, and non-interest income increased, while the expense growth range declined from 5%–6% to 4.5%–5.0%. Positive operating leverage was approximately 140 basis points in fiscal Q2 2026 and from the beginning of the fiscal year through the end of that quarter.
  • +Organic expansion demonstrated a direct financial contribution, adding $0.30, or 5.9%, to earnings per share from the beginning of fiscal 2026 through the end of the second quarter. It also captured 22% of new commercial relationships, with its contribution reaching 39% of new relationships in Dallas, 33% in Houston, and 24% in Austin.
  • +Overall credit quality remains good according to management's description, as loans classified as credit problems declined to $917 million from $989 million in the previous quarter and a year earlier. Annualized net charge-offs were also 17 basis points of average loans, within fiscal 2026 guidance of 15–20 basis points.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $158.86, with a wide range from $141 to $183 and a neutral consensus, reflecting a divergence between the strength of organic growth and the risks from credit, competition, and deposit costs. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $170.8, while the highest target exceeds that high and the lowest target remains above the range low of $119; the data does not provide a valid earnings multiple for constructing an additional comparison.

HoldAnalyst target: $158.86(-2.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove CFR's results in fiscal Q2 2026?

According to EDGAR, Cullen/Frost recorded revenue of $576.0 million, net income of $172.1 million, and earnings per share of $2.70 in fiscal Q2 2026. Management stated on the July 30, 2026 call that earnings increased 9.7% and earnings per share rose 13% year over year. Support came from growth in net interest income, fees, and loans, with the net interest margin rising to 3.75%.

How large was the impact of Frost's branch expansion on growth?

By the end of fiscal Q2 2026, expansion branches had reached $3.0 billion in loans, $3.7 billion in deposits, and more than 100 thousand new households. Average loans at these branches grew 38% annually and their deposits grew 20%, contributing 53% of loan growth and 72% of deposit growth. The expansion added $0.16 to quarterly earnings per share and $0.30 from the beginning of fiscal 2026 through the end of the second quarter.

What is Cullen/Frost's outlook for fiscal 2026?

Management expects net interest income growth of between 4.75% and 5.25% and average loan growth of between 7% and 8% in fiscal 2026. It also expects average deposit growth of 2%–3% and non-interest income growth of 7.5%–8.5%, compared with non-interest expense growth of 4.5%–5.0%. The outlook includes an assumption of a 25 basis point federal interest rate increase in September 2026, with an impact estimated by management at approximately $2 million per month on net interest income.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Nonperforming assets at the end of fiscal Q2 2026 increased to $114 million from $73 million in the previous quarter and $64 million a year earlier, reaching 49 basis points of period-end loans. The increase was primarily associated with a multifamily commercial real estate loan in Austin of approximately $54–55 million originating from 2022 underwriting, for which the bank established a reserve of approximately $1.5 million.
  • −Credit quality faces additional risks in specific parts of the portfolio; management indicated that approximately three other loans from the 2022 or early 2023 vintages could have their risk ratings raised while a sale or private financing is pursued. It also described conditions for independent homebuilders in the mid-tier and entry-level segments as under pressure due to mortgage rates of 6.25%.
  • −Competition in Texas for loans and deposits intensified during fiscal Q2 2026, particularly in CRE loan structures and large-deposit pricing. Management acknowledged losing deals because competitors offered more lenient structural terms and the need to offer more competitive rates to retain certain deposits, which could pressure risk-adjusted returns and funding costs.
  • −The net interest margin remained at 3.75% in fiscal Q2 2026, but the cost of interest-bearing deposits increased to 1.61% from 1.55% in the previous quarter and reached 1.66% in June 2026. Management narrowed its fiscal 2026 margin improvement forecast to 10–13 basis points above the fiscal 2025 level of 3.66%, instead of the previous range of 10–15 basis points, with the margin expected to remain approximately stable in the third quarter.
  • −One mortgage growth driver could slow after the refinancing share declined from 46% in the first quarter to 36% in fiscal Q2 2026. Management said that a rise in the ten-year bond yield could limit refinancing activity and that the growth rate of mortgage originations is likely to slow despite continued demand associated with home purchases.
  • −The neutral analyst consensus and the decline in the lowest price target to $141 reflect differing assessments of potential returns, while the average target of $158.86 is below the 52-week range high of $170.8. Insider activity also recorded one sale and no purchases during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 12, 2026, with net selling of approximately $124,120, although such sales may be prearranged and are not sufficient on their own to assess the company's prospects.
Did CFR's credit quality deteriorate in fiscal Q2 2026?

Loans classified as credit problems declined to $917 million from $989 million in the previous quarter, but nonperforming assets increased to $114 million from $73 million. The increase came primarily from a multifamily real estate loan in Austin of approximately $54–55 million, with a specific reserve of approximately $1.5 million. Net charge-offs were $9.5 million, or an annualized 17 basis points of average loans, compared with 11 basis points in the previous quarter.

How does mortgage growth support Frost's customer base?

Consumer loans at the end of fiscal Q2 2026 increased to more than $4.5 billion, representing annual growth of $751 million, or 20%. Mortgages alone contributed an increase of $533 million, and management reported that 45% of its customers were new to the bank. Approximately 4,000 of these customers were converted to a checking account or another product, with average balances of approximately $22,500, but the refinancing share declined from 46% in the first quarter to 36% in the second quarter.

How sensitive are CFR's earnings to interest rates and deposit costs?

The net interest margin was 3.75% in fiscal Q2 2026, and management expects it to improve during the fiscal year by approximately 10–13 basis points compared with 3.66% in fiscal 2025. Assets benefit from the repricing of more than $500 million in fixed-rate loans and the August 2026 maturity of a $250 million Treasury security yielding less than 1%. Conversely, the cost of interest-bearing deposits increased to 1.61% in the quarter and to 1.66% in June 2026, making competition for deposits an important factor in the margin trajectory.