| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 89 | 9.8x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 59 | 20.0% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 81 | 28.4% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 85 | 0.3x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 53 | 1.59% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 92 | 32.4% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 77 | 7 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
CF Industries Holdings produces nitrogen products and sells them to retail, wholesale, and cooperative customers serving farmers in North America, while also exporting its products to global markets. Its portfolio includes ammonia, urea, UAN, DEF, and ammonium nitrate solution, and profitability benefits from the flexibility to shift production toward higher-margin products; in the first half of fiscal 2026, the company prioritized urea over UAN and recorded its second-highest first-half DEF volumes, its highest-margin product. Its economic advantage also relies on low-cost North American assets, natural gas availability, and a distribution network using rail, trucks, barges, vessels, and pipelines.
The latest available EDGAR financial statements for Q1 fiscal 2026 showed revenue of $2.0 billion, gross profit of $746 million, net income of $676 million, and earnings per share of $3.98. This equates to a gross margin of approximately 37.3% and a net income margin of approximately 33.8%, compared with revenue of $7.1 billion and net income of $1.8 billion in fiscal 2025. For the twelve months ended in fiscal 2026, revenue was $7.4 billion, gross profit was $2.9 billion, net income was $2.1 billion, and earnings per share were approximately $13.74.
In Q2 fiscal 2026, management reported net income attributable to common stockholders of $727 million, diluted earnings per share of $4.73, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion. Net income for the first half of fiscal 2026 was approximately $1.3 billion, or $8.71 per diluted share, while adjusted EBITDA reached $2.2 billion. Operationally, the company utilized approximately 98% of available ammonia capacity, while low-carbon ammonia represented approximately 10% of ammonia sales volumes during the first half at an average premium exceeding $20 per ton.
The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $128.4 and a range of $115 to $145; the average is approximately 9.6% below the 52-week range high of $141.96, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 2.1%. The breadth of the range indicates a material difference in estimates of the sustainability of nitrogen prices and cash flows, particularly as the stock fluctuated within a 52-week range of $75.42 to $141.96 amid Yazoo City cost pressures and accelerating spending on Blue Point.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Earnings benefit from operating approximately 98% of available ammonia capacity and from the tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance. In Q2 fiscal 2026, net income was $727 million and diluted earnings per share were $4.73, while adjusted EBITDA reached $1.2 billion. Management also raised its base mid-cycle EBITDA estimate to approximately $2.9 billion and free cash flow estimate to $1.7 billion because of the higher cost of building new capacity.
Blue Point is a low-carbon ammonia growth project that has received the necessary permits, with nearly all long-lead equipment ordered and construction scheduled to begin in August 2026. Management expects the project to add approximately $300 million to mid-cycle EBITDA by 2030, as part of a total $400 million increase from strategic initiatives. Approximately 50% of capital spending has been fixed, and contracts with JERA and Mitsui linked to the project's output cover one million tons of additional demand.
Management expects Yazoo City to resume operations in the first half of 2027 after the schedule was extended because of electrical equipment lead times. The company recorded a $25 million impairment charge in Q4 fiscal 2025 and an additional $23 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, while weaker fixed-cost absorption at the site also contributed to higher cost of sales. Insurance recoveries collected through Q2 fiscal 2026 totaled approximately $75 million, including $25 million for property damage and $50 million for business interruption.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
During the twelve months ended in Q2 fiscal 2026, the company returned approximately $1.3 billion to stockholders. This included repurchasing 10.6 million shares for $958 million and paying dividends of $314 million, while shares outstanding declined 29% since the beginning of 2021. In July 2026, the Board of Directors increased the quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.60 per share, while continuing a $2 billion share repurchase program, of which $500 million had been executed according to the call.
DEF consumption in North America reached approximately 2.2 million urea-equivalent tons after being close to zero 15 years ago, and management expects it to exceed 3 million tons in 2030 or 2031. In the first half of fiscal 2026, the company recorded its second-highest DEF volumes and describes it as its highest-margin product. It is evaluating an upgrading unit at Courtright to serve the East Coast, but as of August 6, 2026, the project had not received a final investment decision and is not included in the announced strategic EBITDA target for 2030.
Q2 fiscal 2026 showed that higher prices may prompt customers to defer purchases, as occurred in South America, Australia, and Southeast Asia, while North American purchasing slowed in June 2026. Supply could increase if the Gulf Coast and Woodside plants reach full operation or China raises exports above the 4 to 6 million ton range. Natural gas, shipping, and insurance costs, as well as disruptions in the Middle East, also remain factors affecting prices and margins, while fixed costs adjusted for volumes and natural gas increased by approximately $75 million in Q2 fiscal 2026.
