EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
Central Puerto S.A.
CEPU

CEPU Central Puerto S.A.

Central Puerto S.A. · NYSE
Market Closed
14.13
▼ ⁦-2.42%⁩ (-0.35)
Market Cap$2.2B
Beta-0.19
52w Low52w High
7.4318.50
Last Week
⁦-1.33%⁩
Last Month
⁦+1.07%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-8.19%⁩
Last Year
⁦+36.92%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall87
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 7/9Better than 87% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
85
6.4x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
84
108.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
54
9.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
73
1.3x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
—
—2.12%N/A
▸
Momentum
49
25.4%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
47
2▼3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$14
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$12
⁦-15%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$12–$12⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$1.45
⁦-90%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦5⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$1.45–$12⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$12.00
⁦-15.1%⁩
Current Price $14.13·Median $12.00
Low
$12.00
High
$12.00
Street summary

Analyst Forecast Analysis for Central Puerto (CEPU)

Bearish tilt

Central Puerto stock shows a state of stagnation in analytical forecasts, as the target price settled at 12 dollars without any change during the past periods (7 and 30 days). The most notable observation is the negative gap between the current market price (13.91 dollars) and the consensus target price, indicating that the stock is currently trading at a premium exceeding analyst estimates by approximately 14%, reflecting a cautious or pessimistic outlook from research institutions.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.20
Buy
Analyst coverage
5
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time5 analysts rating
1
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.25 → 4.20
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2025-10-29
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2024-11-11
    Bank of America Securities
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2024-09-11
    Bank of America Securities
    —· $12.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    6.37x
    4.50x36.01x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    5.30x
    3.07x24.54x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    2.0%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    108.8%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    257.4%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    34.2%
    9.8%69.4%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    9.0%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.26x
    1.28x10.25x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-12 data

Company Overview

Central Puerto S.A. is one of Argentina's largest electricity producers, having generated 5.25 thousand GWh during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, equivalent to approximately 15% of total generation on the Argentine grid, or 15.9% including the FONINVEMEM plants based on its economic interest. The company combines thermal, hydroelectric, and renewable assets and generates revenue from spot sales, power purchase agreements, and the MAT and MATER forward contract markets; contracted sales represented 55% of sales volumes and 48% of revenue in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, serving more than 120 large industrial customers and 16 distribution and sub-distribution companies.

Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached approximately $453.3 million, up 165.8% from $170.5 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 and 82.3% from $248.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $145 million, up 136.2% year over year and 20.1% quarter over quarter, representing a calculated margin of approximately 32.0%. Revenue included $176.4 million related to spot generation using fuel purchased directly by the company, while profitability benefited from the liquid fuel margin, seasonal spot prices, and newly contracted thermal power.

EDGAR statements for fiscal year 2024 show revenue of $738.2 billion and gross profit of $291.6 billion, representing a calculated gross margin of approximately 39.5%, as well as net income of $61.3 billion and earnings per share of 33.01. Revenue increased from $682.8 billion in fiscal year 2023, but net income declined from $317.8 billion and earnings per share from 214.55, illustrating that annual revenue growth did not translate into comparable growth in net income.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 rose 165.8% year over year to $453.3 million, driven by a full quarter of revenue from the Brigadier Lopez plant under a power purchase agreement and increased contracted energy and capacity sales from Central Puerto, Central Costanera, Piedra del Águila, and Luján de Cuyo.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Central Puerto's share of the Resolution 400 forward market exceeded 35% during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, while contracts accounted for 55% of sales volumes and 48% of revenue, strengthening the stable revenue base outside the seasonal spot market.
  • Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $145 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, compared with $61.4 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, benefiting from the margin on self-procured fuel, winter spot prices, and new thermal power in the MAT market.
  • The battery energy storage projects were 69% complete at Nuevo Puerto and 54% complete at Central Costanera as of August 12, 2026, with commercial operation targeted for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. Management expects the two projects to add between $25 million and $27 million to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization during 2027.
  • Piedra del Águila's output increased 112.9% quarter over quarter due to improved hydrological conditions, helping offset part of the decline in output from older steam turbines and renewable energy during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The 136.2% year-over-year growth in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to $145 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 reflects Central Puerto's direct benefit from the combination of self-procured fuel, seasonal prices, and new thermal contracts.
    • +A share exceeding 35% of the Resolution 400 forward market, along with more than 120 industrial customers and 16 distribution and sub-distribution companies, gives the company a broad commercial platform for optimizing the mix between contracted revenue and selective exposure to the spot market.
    • +The two battery projects provide a quantified growth path, with 81% of their total capital budget deployed and management expecting an annual contribution of $25 million to $27 million to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization during 2027.
    • +Net financial debt stood at $493.4 million as of June 30, 2026, compared with trailing twelve-month adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $403.8 million, keeping net leverage at 1.2 times despite intensive investment in concessions, batteries, and oil and gas assets.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Management expects self-procured fuel purchases to decline in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, after self-procured fuel and winter spot prices contributed to the sharp increase in earnings in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026; therefore, a significant portion of seasonal revenue and margins may not persist at the same level.
    • −Total generation declined 3.1% quarter over quarter to 5.25 thousand GWh in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, with output from older steam turbines down 17% and renewable energy output down 17%, while the gas turbine unit at Luján de Cuyo remained out of service following the generator failure that occurred in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025.
    • −Capital expenditures reached $421.9 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026, including $245 million for the Piedra del Águila concession, $106 million for the battery projects, and $50 million for the acquisition of oil and gas blocks; this level of execution increases the risk of budget overruns or delayed returns if the specified schedules are disrupted.
    • −Total financial debt stood at $671.9 million as of June 30, 2026, with maturities of $176.4 million during the remainder of fiscal year 2026, while cash and current financial assets totaled $178.4 million, making liquidity and refinancing management important despite net leverage remaining at 1.2 times.
    • −The outstanding balance owed to the company by CAMMESA under FONINVEMEM was approximately $104.8 million after collecting only $16 million during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, representing material exposure to counterparty collection timing risk.
    • −Analyst consensus is limited to a Neutral rating and a uniform target of $12, approximately 35% below the 52-week range high of $18.503; the absence of an available price-to-earnings ratio also reduces the ability to assess valuation against reported earnings.

    Valuation

    Analyst consensus rates CEPU as Neutral, with an average target of $12 and both the highest and lowest targets identical at $12, so the target range provides no meaningful variation in analyst estimates. This target lies within the 52-week range of $7.43 to $18.503, approximately 61% above the low and approximately 35% below the high. No price-to-earnings ratio is available for use as an additional valuation anchor, while operating earnings growth supports the valuation on one hand and the seasonality of fuel margins and capital expenditure intensity constrain it on the other.

    HoldAnalyst target: $12(-15.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove the surge in CEPU's results during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026?

    Revenue increased to $453.3 million, up 165.8% from the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $145 million. Revenue included $176.4 million related to spot generation using fuel procured directly by Central Puerto. Results also benefited from a full quarter of the Brigadier Lopez plant under a power purchase agreement and from additional contracts for the Central Costanera, Piedra del Águila, and Luján de Cuyo plants.

    Does Central Puerto expect the impact of self-procured fuel to continue?

    Management stated during the August 12, 2026 call that July 2026 levels were similar to June 2026 levels, but it expected a lower contribution during August 2026. The company does not expect significant volumes of liquid fuel during August 2026 and also anticipates lower self-procured fuel purchases in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. Throughout 2027, management expects purchases of liquid fuel and liquefied natural gas to continue, while increasing direct purchases of domestic natural gas to approximately 4 or 5 million cubic meters per day under the scenario it presented.

    How much will the battery projects contribute to CEPU's growth?

    Construction progress as of August 12, 2026 was approximately 69% at Nuevo Puerto and 54% at Central Costanera, with the main equipment either delivered or in transit. The two projects had used 81% of their capital budget, with $106 million spent on them in the first half of fiscal year 2026. The company is targeting commercial operation in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 and expects a contribution of $25 million to $27 million to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization during 2027.

    What does CEPU's financial position look like after its recent investments?

    Total financial debt stood at $671.9 million as of June 30, 2026, compared with $178.4 million in cash and current financial assets, resulting in net debt of $493.4 million. Relative to $403.8 million in trailing twelve-month adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, net leverage was 1.2 times. The company issued $130.1 million of Class D notes bearing 6% interest in April 2026, followed by $94.3 million of Class E notes bearing 5.5% interest in July 2026, primarily to finance working capital and fuel procurement needs.

    How does Central Puerto balance contracts and the spot market?

    Power purchase agreements, the MAT and MATER markets, and hydroelectric sales under concession terms represented 55% of sales volume and 48% of revenue in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. The company's share of the Resolution 400 forward market exceeded 35%, with more than 120 large industrial customers and 16 distribution and sub-distribution companies. Management explained on August 12, 2026 that it does not necessarily aim to contract 100% of its power, but instead retains some exposure to winter spot prices while securing stable prices for the remainder of the fiscal year.

    What are the main operational risks facing CEPU?

    Total generation declined 3.1% compared with the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, despite increasing 20.1% from the second quarter of fiscal year 2025. Output from older steam turbines and renewable energy each declined 17% quarter over quarter, while the gas turbine unit at Luján de Cuyo remained out of service following a generator failure in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. Capital expenditures of $421.9 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026 also make adherence to schedules and budgets essential to achieving the expected returns.