| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 91 | 13.1x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 90 | 22.2% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 66 | 46.6% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 84 | 0.2x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 71 | — | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 47 | 104.7% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 24 | 1 | 3 | Bottom tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Century Aluminum Company is a primary aluminum producer whose business is based on operating smelters and the Jamalco refinery and selling metal in the U.S. and European markets. Revenue is directly affected by London Metal Exchange aluminum prices, regional premiums, and shipment volumes, while profitability is also determined by energy and raw material costs and operating efficiency. The production base includes Mt. Holly and Sebree in the United States and Grundartangi in Iceland, in addition to the company’s stake in Jamalco. Century’s assets had reached full or near-full capacity by the end of July 2026 following the completion of the Mt. Holly expansion and the restart of Grundartangi’s second potline.
In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, shipments were approximately 131 thousand tons, up 6% from the previous quarter, while net sales rose to $752 million, a sequential increase of $103 million. The company reported net income of $249 million, or $2.39 per share, and adjusted net income of $257 million, or $2.46 per share, while adjusted EBITDA reached $327 million, equivalent to approximately 43.5% of sales. Higher London Metal Exchange prices and regional premiums contributed approximately $95 million more than in the previous quarter, while improved volume and sales mix added $8 million.
The financial position improved alongside operating earnings, as Century ended June 2026 with $388 million in cash after repaying $66 million of debt, while net debt declined to $98 million with no outstanding borrowings under its credit facilities. In July 2026, the company received $94 million in 45X tax credits and $19 million in Grundartangi insurance proceeds, leaving cash above total debt by the end of the month. The completion of growth capital spending at Mt. Holly and Grundartangi also shifts most capital expenditures in the second half of fiscal year 2026 to maintenance spending, supporting the conversion of earnings into cash flow.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus for CENX is Neutral, with an average price target of $70.67 and a target range of $60 to $77. The average target is only slightly above the top of the 52-week range of $70.43, versus a low of $20.91, reflecting a substantial re-rating associated with strong aluminum prices, production capacity expansion, and an improved balance sheet, while risks remain from earnings sensitivity to the commodity cycle and execution of the Oklahoma project. The available data do not provide a valid comparable price-to-earnings multiple, so the assessment is based primarily on the target range, operating earnings, and expected cash flows.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Net sales reached $752 million, a sequential increase of $103 million, with shipments of approximately 131 thousand tons, up 6%. Higher London Metal Exchange prices and regional premiums added $95 million compared with the previous quarter, while volume and sales mix added $8 million. As a result, Century reported net income of $249 million and adjusted EBITDA of $327 million.
The restart of the final 90 cells at Mt. Holly was completed by the end of June 2026, returning the plant to full capacity. Q2 of fiscal year 2026 included only part of the expanded production rate, so management expects the full quarterly impact to appear in Q3 of fiscal year 2026. The company expects a $15 million to $25 million improvement in volume and sales mix during that quarter, despite including the impact of temporary post-restart instability in its outlook.
Bechtel is continuing detailed engineering work, while Century and Emirates Global Aluminum are working on the final power contract and financing, targeting a final investment decision and the start of construction by the end of 2026 and first metal by the end of 2029. The project has a secured $500 million Department of Energy grant that is disbursed against investments as required milestones are achieved. Financing sources may also include internal liquidity, the potential benefit of importing 300 thousand tons annually at a 25% tariff beginning in 2027, and the potential value of the 6.8% Hawesville stake.
The company ended June 2026 with $388 million in cash after repaying $66 million of debt, reducing net debt to $98 million and leaving no outstanding borrowings under its credit facilities. In July 2026, it received $94 million in 45X tax credits and $19 million in insurance proceeds, causing cash to exceed total debt. Liquidity also reached $785 million by the end of July, and management expects further improvement in cash conversion following the completion of growth capital spending at Mt. Holly and Grundartangi.
TG 4 entered service in early August 2026, enabling Jamalco to generate all of its energy needs within the facility. This allows it to stop purchasing electricity from the Jamaican grid while retaining the connection for stability purposes and improves the refinery’s ability to continue operating during grid disruptions. Management estimated approximate savings of about $20 per ton and included the impact in its Q3 fiscal year 2026 outlook, but lower bauxite quality will remain a modest pressure on cost and volume for two additional quarters.
The main risks are earnings sensitivity to aluminum prices and premiums, after prices and premiums contributed approximately $95 million more in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. Operating risks include temporary instability at Mt. Holly, Grundartangi operating at reduced amperage until transformer installation in Q4 of fiscal year 2026, and weaker bauxite quality at Jamalco. The Oklahoma project also depends on completing the power contract, engineering, and financing and obtaining regulatory approval details for the reduced-tariff benefit before reaching its end-of-2026 targets.
