| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 27 | 24.3x | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 78 | 34.4% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 87 | 25.9% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 91 | — | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 74 | — | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 100 | 307.0% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 39 | 3 | 3 | Bottom tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
CareDx is a molecular diagnostics company for precision medicine focused on organ transplantation, specialty oncology, and cell therapy. Its model relies on recurring molecular tests throughout the patient journey, supported by clinical evidence, electronic integration with treatment centers, and patient follow-up services; its portfolio includes AlloSure and AlloMap for monitoring transplant patients, NavDx for molecular residual disease detection, and programs under development such as AlloHeme and HistoMap Kidney.
In Q2 fiscal 2026, total revenue increased 52% to $131.9 million according to EDGAR filings, versus approximately $132 million on the earnings call. Testing services revenue reached $100 million, or about 76% of the total, up 61% as testing volume grew 17% to 58 thousand tests; patient and digital solutions revenue was $19 million, and lab products revenue was $13 million. Testing revenue also included $15.6 million related to prior periods, and average revenue was $1,720 per test.
Non-GAAP gross margin was 74%, and adjusted EBITDA rose to $25 million, equivalent to 19% of revenue. The company reported net income of $110.6 million and diluted earnings per share of $2.07, but the result included a $113 million gain from the sale of the lab products business; therefore, reported accounting earnings alone do not represent recurring operating profitability. The company ended the quarter with $374 million in liquidity and no debt, with operating cash flow of $31 million during the quarter.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The average analyst price target is $56.67, within a wide range of $46 to $64, with a consensus rating of "Buy"; the average is approximately 5.6% above the 52-week range high of $53.671. The 52-week range extends from $12.37 to $53.671, reflecting the extent of the repricing, while no valid price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data despite trailing twelve-month earnings turning positive, because Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings included a nonrecurring gain of $113 million. Analyst targets should therefore be weighed against earnings quality, the normalization of prior-period revenue, and the risks and lower margins associated with the NavDx integration.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Total revenue increased 52% to approximately $132 million, driven primarily by testing services, which grew 61% to $100 million. Testing volume increased 17% to 58 thousand tests, and average revenue was $1,720 per test. Revenue related to prior periods also contributed $15.6 million, so revenue growth was much faster than volume growth. Patient and digital solutions revenue was $19 million, compared with $13 million for lab products.
The company reported net income of $110.6 million and diluted earnings per share of $2.07. This result included an accounting gain of $113 million from the sale of the lab products business on June 30, 2026, and the gain was excluded from non-GAAP operating measures. The recurring operating profit measure more suitable for monitoring, represented by adjusted EBITDA, was $25 million, or 19% of revenue. Therefore, reported net income should not be treated as a repeatable quarterly earnings rate.
The NavDx acquisition closed on July 1, 2026 and added to CareDx a test for molecular residual disease detection in HPV-associated cancers. Fiscal 2026 guidance assumes specialty oncology revenue of $24 million in the second half, with 14,600 tests in Q3 and 16,300 tests in Q4. Management aims to integrate billing and the revenue cycle and connect the test to the Epic ecosystem, while retaining and expanding a dedicated NavDx sales team. The company assumes an average price of $770 in Q3 fiscal 2026 and $795 in Q4 fiscal 2026, compared with a longer-term target of between $1,000 and $1,100.
AlloSure Kidney is central to recurring molecular monitoring after kidney transplantation, and management says its use is growing in routine surveillance and cases of clinical suspicion. In an analysis of more than 1,100 patients, approximately 35% of those whose levels remained elevated experienced rejection and faced a ninefold higher risk of graft loss. In a published analysis involving more than 1,250 patients across 56 centers, elevated levels were associated with an approximately fourfold to sixfold higher risk of graft loss. The Medicare decision issued on July 16, 2026 also confirmed coverage of molecular monitoring after kidney, heart, and lung transplantation.
CareDx aims to complete CLIA readiness for the AlloHeme test before the end of 2026 and launch it commercially in 2027. The ACROBAT study showed that the test predicted relapse by a median of 41 days before clinical diagnosis in AML and MDS patients undergoing cell therapy. The company intends to launch HistoMap Kidney as part of a clinical study during 2026 and then make it commercially available more broadly in 2027. A study involving 138 biopsy samples supported HistoMap's ability to distinguish a group that recorded more than three times the rate of graft loss over six years compared with the low-risk group.
The company expects revenue between $490 million and $500 million, equivalent to annual growth of 30% at the $495 million midpoint. It expects adjusted EBITDA between $66 million and $78 million and a non-GAAP gross margin between 71% and 73%. The guidance assumes between 258 thousand and 266 thousand tests, testing services revenue of $400 million, patient and digital solutions revenue of $72 million, and product revenue of $23 million. It also includes $24 million in specialty oncology revenue in the second half of fiscal 2026 following the NavDx integration.
