| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 16 | 34.1x | 17.3x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 79 | 34.4% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 87 | 25.9% | 4.4% | Top tier | |
Safety | 92 | — | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 50 | 0.00% | 0.06% | Around median | |
Momentum | 100 | 333.2% | -1.7% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 40 | 3 | 3 | Bottom tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
71% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 5.00% as of 2026-10-23. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
CareDx operates in precision molecular diagnostics, generating revenue from tests that monitor organ transplant patients, patient solutions and digital services, while expanding into oncology and cell therapy. Its model relies on repeated testing over time to support clinical decisions; its products include AlloSure for monitoring transplant patients and AlloMap for monitoring heart transplants, as well as NavDx for monitoring HPV-related cancers. In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, testing services revenue totaled 100 million dollars, patient solutions and digital services revenue totaled 19 million dollars, and laboratory products revenue totaled 13 million dollars; the sale of the laboratory products business closed on 2026-06-30, while the NavDx acquisition closed on 2026-07-01.
CareDx reported revenue of 131.9 million dollars in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, up 52.2% from the same quarter of the previous year, with net income of 110.6 million dollars, diluted earnings per share of 2.07 dollars, and an operating margin of 85.8% for the same period. However, this profitability included a gain of 113 million dollars from the sale of the laboratory products business during that quarter, so the operating margin does not represent a recurring level that can be assumed to continue. Test volume totaled 58000 tests in the same quarter, up 17% from the same quarter of the previous year, while testing services revenue included 15.6 million dollars attributable to prior periods.
The results reflect a combination of business expansion, improved collections, and the impact of selling an existing business, making cash important in assessing the sustainability of the improvement. According to EL7 data, operating cash flow totaled 30.6 million dollars in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, and cash and short-term investments totaled 373.6 million dollars versus total debt of 19.2 million dollars at the end of the same period. For the last 12 months through 2026-06-30, revenue totaled 458.1 million dollars and net income totaled 111.0 million dollars, compared with operating cash flow of 93.7 million dollars according to EL7 data, equivalent to 84% of net income.
Q2 FY2026
Last 12 months to 2026-06-30
When: 2026-10-29
Organ transplant test volume at the threshold of 58000 tests in quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026
Specialty oncology test volume at the threshold of 14600 tests in quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026
Fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance within a range of 490 million dollars to 500 million dollars
Analyst targets indicate a reference median of 65 dollars, within a range of 46 dollars to 74 dollars, based on two analysts and with low confidence, pricing in expected growth; meanwhile, the reference value based on the industry multiple is 25 dollars, within a range of 20 dollars to 39 dollars, valuing next year's earnings at a median multiple of 26.4 across 22 comparable companies. The no-growth value is 20 dollars, resulting from holding current after-tax operating profit constant in perpetuity at a discount rate of 14.1%, while the discounted cash flow model gives a low-confidence reference value of 17 dollars, within a range of 16 dollars to 18 dollars and using the same discount rate, to assess expected cash generation. The cash flow value and no-growth value are closer to each other than to analyst targets, and the industry-multiple value lies between them and those targets; the difference reflects the pricing of growth expectations versus comparable-company profitability, cash generation, and the continuation of earnings without growth, with analyst targets tending toward optimism and the cash flow model toward conservatism. BTIG raised its target to 74 dollars on 2026-09-24, after raising it to 60 dollars from 45 dollars on 2026-08-06, but the limited number of analysts and low confidence in several methods keep these values as multiple indicators rather than a single definitive value.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-10-19; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
CareDx's model relies on repeated molecular testing to monitor patients over time, using AlloSure and AlloMap to support clinical decisions after transplantation. In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, the company performed 58000 tests, up 17% from the same quarter of the previous year, and testing services revenue totaled 100 million dollars. Management said on the 2026-07-30 call that improvements in sample collection, ordering, and results review increase the average number of surveillance tests per patient, and that slightly more than 50% of kidney tests involve testing cases that warrant clinical evaluation.
Net income totaled 110.6 million dollars and the operating margin was 85.8% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30. That quarter's results included a gain of 113 million dollars from the sale of the laboratory products business, leaving the sustainability of accounting profit at this level unproven. According to EL7 data, operating cash flow totaled 30.6 million dollars in the same quarter, providing an additional measure for assessing cash generation alongside profit affected by the transaction.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The NavDx acquisition closed on 2026-07-01, adding a test for monitoring HPV-related cancers to CareDx's portfolio. Guidance for the second half of fiscal year 2026 assumes revenue of 24 million dollars from specialty oncology, with 14600 tests in quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 and 16300 tests in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026. The company is working on billing integration, connectivity with Epic, and expansion of its specialized sales team, but the success of these steps in increasing collections and adoption remains part of the required execution.
The policy announced on 2026-07-16 confirmed coverage for molecular surveillance tests for kidney, heart, and lung transplantation, supporting the role of AlloSure and AlloMap. Management removed a negative impact of 7.5 million dollars from fiscal year 2026 guidance, but clarified on the 2026-07-30 call that the payment policy is not expected to directly increase test volume. The policy also establishes a potential coverage pathway for HistoMap when conventional biopsy results are inconclusive, while the 2026-09-23 news report pointed to favorable pricing updates for CareDx tests for 2027 without specifying a company-specific financial impact.
AlloHeme focuses on monitoring relapse in cell therapy patients, and the ACROBAT study showed that it preceded clinical diagnosis of relapse by a median of 41 days, as discussed on the 2026-07-30 call. The company aims to complete CLIA readiness by the end of 2026 in preparation for planned commercial availability in 2027, while continuing work on evidence and the coverage pathway. HistoMap Kidney adds molecular analysis of kidney biopsies, and a study involving 138 samples showed that the high-risk group had more than three times the rate of graft loss over six years compared with the low-risk group. The company intends to make it available within a clinical study in 2026 and then commercially on a broader scale in 2027.