| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 86 | 11.7x | 17.3x | Top tier | |
Growth | 48 | 5.2% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 67 | 10.9% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 48 | 3.4x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 92 | 1.68% | 0.06% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 46 | -27.4% | -1.6% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 85 | 17 | 3 | Top tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
86% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Carnival Corporation & plc, listed under ticker CCL on NYSE, operates a cruise business through a portfolio of 8 brands, generating revenue from tickets, onboard spending, and experiences associated with the voyage. This business is supported by private destinations such as Celebration Key and RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay, alongside integrated land and sea experiences in Alaska that include hotels, lodges, and 20 glass-domed railcars. Its strategy focuses on increasing revenue and yield from the existing fleet, while redeploying ships toward destinations with stronger demand, rather than relying on rapid capacity expansion.
In quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-08-31, revenue reached $8.4 billion, up 3.5% from the same quarter a year earlier, while net income reached $1.9 billion and diluted earnings per share were $1.4. The operating margin was 26.3%, versus 27.9% in quarter 3 of fiscal year 2025, showing that revenue growth was not accompanied by a margin improvement compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Operating cash flow for quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 was approximately $1.4 billion, according to EL7 data.
Revenue for the last 12 months through 2026-08-31 was approximately $27.6 billion and net income was $3.1 billion, with operating cash flow of $6.8 billion, according to EL7 data. In terms of operational deployment, management expects Europe and the Caribbean each to represent 34% of the deployment mix in fiscal year 2027; these are operational deployment percentages, not revenue shares. The company links this shift to strong demand for Northern Europe, while keeping its private Caribbean destinations a core differentiator for its cruises.
Q3 FY2026
Last 12 months to 2026-08-31
When: 2026-12-18
Achieving earnings-per-share guidance of $2.24 for fiscal year 2026
Net yield growth of 1.7% in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026 compared with the same quarter a year earlier
When:
The industry-multiple valuation is $37, within a range of $26 to $77, valuing next year's earnings at a median multiple of 14.4 across 13 comparable companies. The median target of 10 analysts is $33, within a range of $29 to $42, and reflects growth expectations, with this method tending toward optimism. The discounted cash flow model produces a value of $14, within a range of $9.71 to $19 and at a discount rate of 14.1%, measuring expected cash generation with a tendency toward conservatism. The no-growth value is $3.59 at a discount rate of 14.1%, representing the value of current after-tax operating profit continuing unchanged forever. Analyst targets and the industry-multiple valuation are relatively close, while the cash flow valuation is lower and the no-growth value is the lowest, because the first prices in growth expectations and the second reflects peer comparisons, while the other two methods test cash generation and what remains when growth stops.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-10-19; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Carnival generates revenue from cruise tickets, onboard spending, and associated experiences across 8 brands. In quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-08-31, revenue reached $8.4 billion, up 3.5% from the same quarter a year earlier. Celebration Key targets approximately 3.5 million guests in fiscal year 2027, and the company uses it alongside RelaxAway to differentiate its Caribbean itineraries.
Net income was $3.1 billion for the last 12 months through 2026-08-31, compared with operating cash flow of $6.8 billion, according to EL7 data. Operating cash flow equaled 217% of net income for the same period. Free cash flow calculated by EL7 (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure) for the last 12 months was approximately $3.2 billion through 2026-08-31, supporting the business's ability to generate cash after capital investment.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Celebration Key visits reaching 3.5 million guests
According to EL7 data, total debt was approximately $24.6 billion at the end of quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026, dated 2026-08-31, compared with cash and short-term investments of $1.2 billion. This comparison excludes long-term marketable securities and therefore does not measure total liquidity. On the 2026-09-29 call, management explained that S&P's upgrade made it the second agency to assign the company an investment-grade rating, and that the release of collateral left the company with no secured debt. The size of the debt remains an important factor when assessing cash allocation among investment, debt reduction, and returns to shareholders.
Carnival Rewards launched on 2026-09-01, and management expects it to be cash-flow positive from launch. However, the program defers recognition of a portion of revenue until benefits are redeemed, creating accounting pressure of 0.6 percentage points on net yield growth in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026. Management expects an additional impact of 0.4 percentage points in fiscal year 2027, before the impact turns positive in fiscal year 2028. The effect of revenue recognition timing should therefore be distinguished from developments in actual cruise demand.
The designated earnings announcement date is 2026-12-18, which is an expected date. An important test is whether the company achieves earnings-per-share guidance of $2.24 for fiscal year 2026, alongside expected net yield growth of 1.7% in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026 compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Booking details for fiscal year 2027 will also clarify whether the strong pricing and occupancy presented by management on 2026-09-29 are continuing, and to what extent the effects of booking disruption persist in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027.