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Home
Stocks
Carnival Corporation & plc
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall80
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 7/9DistressBetter than 80% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
91
10.2x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
61
5.2%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
69
11.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
46
3.4x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
90
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
27
-12.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
72
17▲3Top tier
CCL

CCL Carnival Corporation & plc

Carnival Corporation & plc · NYSE
Market Closed
22.75
▲ ⁦+1.25%⁩ (+0.28)
Market Cap$31.2B
Beta2.34
52w Low52w High
22.2834.03
Last Week
⁦-4.17%⁩
Last Month
⁦-17.96%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-12.47%⁩
Last Year
⁦-27.94%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$23
Analyst target · 10 analysts
$36
⁦+58%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$30–$42⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$4.60
⁦-80%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$4.60–$36⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 10 analysts setting price target
$35.80
⁦+57.4%⁩
Current Price $22.75·Median $36.00
Low
$30.00
High
$42.00
Current price
$22.75
Average target
$35.80
Street summary

Carnival (CCL) Price Target Review Analysis

The average price target for Carnival stock saw a slight decline of 1.22% over the past seven days, reaching $35.64, compared to $36.08 at the beginning of July 2026. This adjustment reflects a state of slight caution despite the number of analysts remaining stable at 10, with a price dispersion between a low of $30 and a high of $42, indicating a divergence in the estimation of future cash flow growth speed.

As of 2026-07-14
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.93
Buy
Analyst coverage
30
Buy conviction
77%
High
Target dispersion
53%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time30 analysts rating
5
18
7
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.90 → 3.93
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-07
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    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-06-30
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    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-06-25
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    Overweight
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.20x
    4.56x36.49x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.94x
    3.79x30.29x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.61x
    2.75x22.03x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    10.3%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.2%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    17.4%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    26.9%
    12.0%66.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    11.2%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.36x
    0.65x5.48x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.21
    -2.656.14
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-06-23 data

Company Overview

Carnival Corporation & plc operates a global portfolio of cruise lines and generates revenue from cruise tickets and onboard spending. The portfolio includes brands such as Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and AIDA, supported by private destination assets and a land-and-sea ecosystem in Alaska that includes eight lodges, trains, and buses. The company aims to increase pricing and onboard spending through revenue management, personalization, and marketing, alongside measured fleet growth and upgrades to existing ships; its order book reached ten ships, including five for Carnival Cruise Line, three Princess Cruises ships scheduled for delivery in 2035, 2038, and 2039, and two for AIDA.

In Q2 of fiscal 2026, Carnival reported revenue of $6.7 billion, EDGAR net income of $537 million, and earnings per share of $0.39. Management reported adjusted net income of $569 million, up more than 20% year over year, and said that revenue, yields, EBITDA, net income, and customer deposits reached record levels; customer deposits totaled $9 billion. The data did not provide gross profit or gross margin, but cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day remained nearly flat, outperforming March guidance by approximately 250 basis points, while yields increased 2.2% despite an approximately 30% increase in fuel prices.

The operating business mix relies more on the broad reach of its brands and destinations than on any single line: the company operates in Alaska through five brands, 19 ships, and four homeports, while Paradise Collection destinations are expected to receive more than 9 million visits in 2027. Approximately 85% of Caribbean itineraries include at least one exclusive destination, and nearly half visit two or more exclusive destinations. Revenue for the twelve months ended in 2026 was approximately $27.3 billion, with net income of $3.1 billion and earnings per share of approximately $2.21.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company raised its fiscal 2026 earnings per share guidance to $2.22, an increase of $0.01 from its previous guidance due to the impact of share repurchases, and expects EBITDA to exceed $7 billion. Q2 fiscal 2026 results also exceeded March guidance by $100 million, or $0.07 per share, comprising $0.05 from cost control, $0.01 from revenue, and $0.01 from depreciation and fuel-consumption efficiency.
  • Yield growth reached 2.2% in Q2 fiscal 2026, marking the twelfth consecutive record quarter, supported by close-in booking demand and strong onboard spending. At the beginning of Q3 fiscal 2026, 93% of the business was booked, at record prices for each remaining quarter of fiscal 2026 and with less inventory available for sale compared with the prior year.
  • Management lowered its normalized yield growth guidance for fiscal 2026 to approximately 2.25%, about one percentage point below its previous guidance, due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on European cruises, particularly the Mediterranean. This revision represents a negative operating impact of $0.14 per share, but a one-percentage-point improvement in cruise costs excluding fuel offset its impact on guidance.
  • Bookings for 2027 support the longer-term outlook; European cruise bookings increased by mid-teens percentages at higher prices, while overall bookings and prices for 2027 reached record-high levels. In contrast, management explicitly declined to provide yield or cost guidance for 2027 because many decisions and variables remain unresolved.
  • Destination assets expand capacity and commercial differentiation: the extended pier at Celebration Key allows it to accommodate up to four ships and more than 13,000 guests per day, with 3.5 million visitors expected in 2027. The new pier at RelaxAway Half Moon Cay also allows two large ships to dock simultaneously and increases the destination's capacity to more than 12,000 guests per day.
  • The capital policy combines deleveraging with returning capital to shareholders; net debt to adjusted EBITDA declined from 3.4 times at the end of 2025 to 3.1 times at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026. Under a $2.5 billion repurchase authorization, the company bought more than 17 million shares for over $450 million, but clarified that extrapolating a pace of $450 million per quarter would exceed its expectations.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +Q2 fiscal 2026 results demonstrate clear operating strength: adjusted net income increased by more than 20% despite an approximately 30% rise in fuel prices, earnings exceeded guidance by $100 million, and fuel efficiency improved by more than 5% after improving by more than 6% in the prior year.
  • +The booking position provides strong revenue visibility; 93% of fiscal 2026 business was booked at the beginning of Q3, with record prices for the remaining quarters, while 2027 bookings were at record-high levels in terms of price and occupancy.
  • +Exclusive destinations represent a Carnival-specific competitive barrier; approximately 85% of Caribbean itineraries visit at least one exclusive destination, and nearly half visit two or more, while visits to the Paradise Collection are expected to exceed nine million in 2027.
  • +Fleet upgrades can increase returns on capital without excessive reliance on new ships; management targets returns of at least the high-teens range for guest-experience renovation projects and says that added cabins can recoup their cost in approximately two years.
  • +Financial flexibility improved alongside investment; net debt to adjusted EBITDA declined to 3.1 times by the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, while the company continued to invest in ships and destinations and executed more than $450 million in share repurchases.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $35.8, within a wide range of $30 to $42, and the average is approximately 5.2% above the 52-week range high of $34.03, while the range low is $23.45. The "Buy" consensus supports the positive outlook, but the wide dispersion of targets reflects uncertainty related to the reduction in fiscal 2026 yield guidance, geopolitical exposure, and competition in the Caribbean; no published price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data for an additional comparison.

BuyAnalyst target: $35.8(+57.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were Carnival's key results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Carnival reported revenue of $6.7 billion, EDGAR net income of $537 million, and earnings per share of $0.39. On the adjusted basis presented by management, net income was $569 million, up more than 20% year over year and $100 million above previous guidance. Yields increased 2.2%, while cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day remained nearly flat despite an approximately 30% increase in fuel prices. Customer deposits also reached a record $9 billion.

Why did Carnival lower its yield outlook for fiscal 2026?

Management lowered normalized yield growth guidance by approximately one percentage point to around 2.25% due to the conflict in the Middle East, which continued for more than three months. The impact was concentrated in European cruises, particularly the Mediterranean, and was compounded by higher airfares and lower international flight capacity for guests traveling from North America. The company lowered its Europe occupancy forecast for Q3 fiscal 2026 by approximately two points and estimated the operating impact on earnings per share at approximately $0.14. A one-percentage-point improvement in cruise costs excluding fuel offset this pressure in overall guidance.

What is the status of Carnival's bookings for fiscal 2026 and 2027?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −European demand remains exposed to geopolitical tensions and air travel costs; Carnival lowered its Europe occupancy forecast for Q3 fiscal 2026 by approximately two points and reduced its annual yield growth guidance by about one percentage point, representing a negative impact of $0.14 per share. Weakness was concentrated in the Mediterranean and was compounded by high airfares and reduced international flight capacity for guests traveling from North America.
  • −The Caribbean business faces competitive pressure from competitors' capacity growth; management cited a 27% increase in capacity outside Carnival over two years. Although Carnival's Caribbean booking trajectory did not change significantly during the conflict, this substantial increase could pressure pricing or occupancy if exclusive destinations do not continue to support differentiation.
  • −Yield growth slowed to 2.2% in Q2 fiscal 2026 after growth of more than 6% in the comparable quarter of the prior year, while normalized growth guidance for fiscal 2026 is now approximately 2.25%. This means that achieving new record levels does not eliminate the clear slowdown in the pace of growth.
  • −Costs remain sensitive to fuel and logistical disruptions; fuel prices increased by approximately 30% in Q2 fiscal 2026, while crew travel and freight costs also increased due to disruptions in the Middle East. The company expects cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day to rise by approximately 1.3% on a normalized basis in fiscal 2026.
  • −The fleet and destination program entails long-term capital commitments; the order book includes ten ships, including three Princess Cruises ships scheduled for delivery through 2039, alongside upgrades to seven AIDA ships and six Holland America Line ships. These investments may generate high returns, but they increase the exposure of future results to execution risks and extended demand cycles.
  • −Insider activity recorded net sales of $1.2 million over the three months through the May 28, 2026 transaction, with one sale and no purchases. This remains a weak standalone signal because insider sales may have been prearranged, and the data provided no evidence to the contrary.

At the beginning of Q3 fiscal 2026, 93% of the business was booked, with less inventory available for sale than in the prior year and record prices in every remaining quarter of fiscal 2026. Management expects record yields to continue in the second half of fiscal 2026. Bookings for 2027 reached record-high levels in terms of price and occupancy, while European bookings increased by mid-teens percentages at higher prices. Nevertheless, management did not provide formal yield or cost guidance for 2027.

How do Celebration Key and RelaxAway Half Moon Cay support Carnival's growth?

Carnival completed the extension of the Celebration Key pier in May 2026, providing flexibility to accommodate up to four ships and more than 13,000 guests per day. The company expects the destination to receive 3.5 million visitors in 2027. The RelaxAway Half Moon Cay pier also opened in June 2026 and can now accommodate two large ships while tender service continues for midsized ships, increasing capacity to more than 12,000 guests per day. Carnival can combine both destinations in a single itinerary, adding two distinct beach experiences to the same cruise.

What is Carnival's plan for its fleet and ship upgrades?

Carnival ordered three new ships for Princess Cruises, scheduled for delivery in 2035, 2038, and 2039, bringing its order book to ten ships. It intends to maintain a pace of adding one to two ships annually while directing more investment toward upgrading the existing fleet. AIDA Bella became the third of seven ships in the AIDA Evolution program, while Holland America Evolution will include six ships beginning with Oosterdam in fall 2027. Management targets returns of at least the high-teens range for guest-experience renovations and says added cabins can recoup their cost in approximately two years.

How is Carnival managing debt and returning capital to shareholders?

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA declined from 3.4 times at the end of 2025 to 3.3 times at the end of Q1 fiscal 2026 and then to 3.1 times at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026. The board approved an initial $2.5 billion share repurchase program in March 2026. As of the June 23, 2026 call, the company had repurchased more than 17 million shares for over $450 million. Management expects EBITDA to exceed $7 billion in fiscal 2026, but clarified that a repurchase pace equivalent to $450 million per quarter would exceed its current expectations.