EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
Caterpillar Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall63
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 6/9Better than 63% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
23
35.1x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
55
18.4%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
78
15.8%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
60
2.5x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
38
0.73%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
72
98.1%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
68
18▲3Top tier
CAT

CAT Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
818.57
▲ ⁦+1.69%⁩ (+13.57)
Market Cap$377.1B
Beta1.60
52w Low52w High
419.501,073.46
Last Week
⁦+3.32%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.94%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-4.39%⁩
Last Year
⁦+95.79%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$819
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$975
⁦+19%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$882–$1155⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$208
⁦-75%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦11.5⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$208–$975⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$985.58
⁦+20.4%⁩
Current Price $818.57·Median $975.00
Low
$882.00
High
$1155.00
Current price
$818.57
Average target
$985.58
Street summary

Caterpillar (CAT) Price Target Review

Bullish tilt

Caterpillar stock has seen an upward revision in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus rising by 4.7% to reach 958.23 compared to 915.2 in July 2026. This increase in expectations comes despite the number of analysts covering the stock remaining steady at 4, indicating improved conviction among current analysts regarding the stock's fair value, especially with the current price trading at 855.6, which is approximately 12% below the consensus average.

As of 2026-08-12
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.43
Hold
Analyst coverage
28
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Target dispersion
33%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time28 analysts rating
1
13
12
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.41 → 3.43
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-05
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-05
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-05
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    35.13x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    30.88x
    4.57x36.58x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    26.32x
    3.43x27.47x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.3%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    18.4%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    18.3%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    34.3%
    8.6%54.6%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    15.8%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.47x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    0.7%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    25.5%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-04 data

Company Overview

Caterpillar operates through three main industrial pillars: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and Energy & Transportation, which management referred to as Power & Energy during the Q2 FY2026 earnings call. The company generates revenue from selling construction and mining equipment, engines, generators, and turbines used in data centers and oil and gas, as well as parts and services, while Cat Financial adds equipment-related financing and insurance revenue.

In Q2 FY2026, Caterpillar reported record sales and revenues of $20.5 billion, up 24% year over year, surpassing $20 billion in a single quarter for the first time in its history. Operating profit rose 50% to $4.3 billion, while adjusted operating profit reached $4.5 billion at a margin of 21.9%, up 430 basis points. Earnings per share were $7.77, and adjusted earnings per share were $8.17, up 73%.

Growth was broad-based in Q2 FY2026: Power & Energy sales rose 17% to $8.2 billion with a segment margin of 24.6%, Construction Industries sales jumped 35% to $8.3 billion with a margin of 23.3%, and Resource Industries sales increased 20% to $4.6 billion with a margin of 14.9%. Financial Products revenues also rose 10% to $1.1 billion, while EDGAR data for the twelve months ended in 2026 show revenue of $70.8 billion, gross profit of $23.7 billion, and net income of $9.4 billion.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The order backlog reached $72 billion in Q2 FY2026 after a quarterly increase of $9 billion, representing growth of 92%, or approximately $35 billion, year over year. The company expects to deliver 59% of it during the twelve months following that quarter, with some Power & Energy orders extending into 2029 and 2030.
  • Power & Energy sales to users rose 33% in Q2 FY2026, while power generation jumped 72% due to demand for large generators and turbines for data centers. Oil and gas sales also grew 6%, and the backlog for this business at the end of the quarter was nearly double its level a year earlier.
  • Caterpillar is resuming production of its 10-megawatt medium-speed reciprocating gas engine platform after receiving its first orders, targeting the restoration of approximately 1.5 gigawatts of production capacity and the start of shipments in Q4 FY2026. Management says the restart requires limited investment because it relies on the existing supply base and internal capabilities, with production expected to reach the targeted level within 18 months.
  • Management raised its FY2026 sales and revenues outlook to growth in the mid-to-high teens, supported by increased sales to users across all three segments and higher production capacity during the second half of FY2026. It also raised its Machinery, Energy & Transportation free cash flow outlook to the upper half of the annual range of $6 billion to $15 billion.
  • Construction Industries sales to users rose 22% in Q2 FY2026, driven by strong rental fleet loading and spending on nonresidential construction, infrastructure, and data centers in North America. The company delivered its first units to Major Projects, a joint rental venture wholly owned by Cat dealers to serve multibillion-dollar projects.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The $72 billion order backlog provides extended demand visibility, and its growth is not limited to data centers. All three main segments contributed to the increase, with major gas engine orders extending into the second half of 2028 and into 2029, while turbine orders extended beyond that.
  • +The power boom combines equipment growth with a long-term services opportunity. Expanding the installed base of engines and turbines creates demand for maintenance, repairs, and parts, and management expects most of this opportunity to emerge after 2030.
  • +Q2 FY2026 demonstrated clear operating strength, with adjusted operating profit growing 54% to $4.5 billion and the adjusted margin rising to 21.9%, alongside sales growth across all three main segments.
  • +The Machinery, Energy & Transportation business generated record free cash flow of $5.1 billion in Q2 FY2026, and the company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders, including approximately $1.5 billion through share repurchases. In June 2026, it also announced an 8% dividend increase, its sixth consecutive annual increase at a high-single-digit rate.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $958.23, within a wide range from $785 to $1155, while the consensus rates the stock a “Buy.” The average target is below the top of the 52-week range of $1073.46, while the highest target exceeds that level, reflecting optimism that growth in power and construction will continue, alongside clear divergence over how much growth justifies the valuation. Conversely, the lowest target of $785 and reports on August 11, 2026 pointing to an elevated valuation highlight the risk of repricing if backlog execution slows or tariff and cost pressures on margins persist.

BuyAnalyst target: $958.23(+17.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove CAT stock results in Q2 FY2026?

Caterpillar generated sales and revenues of $20.5 billion, up 24% year over year, and exceeded $20 billion in a single quarter for the first time. Adjusted operating profit was $4.5 billion at a margin of 21.9%, and adjusted earnings per share reached $8.17. Growth came from higher volume and pricing, with Construction Industries sales increasing 35%, Resource Industries sales rising 20%, and Power & Energy sales growing 17%.

How much is Caterpillar benefiting from the construction of AI data centers?

Power generation sales to users rose 72% in Q2 FY2026, driven by strong demand for large generators and turbines used in data centers. The company restarted a 10-megawatt gas engine platform and is targeting approximately 1.5 gigawatts of production capacity from it, with shipments beginning in Q4 FY2026. It also converted a 250,000-square-foot facility in Wamego, Kansas, in less than 12 months to assemble and ship the PGM130 used in data center power generation.

Does Caterpillar's order backlog depend solely on data centers?

The order backlog reached $72 billion in Q2 FY2026, up 92% year over year, with all three main segments contributing to its growth. Within Power & Energy, most of the growth came from power generation and oil and gas, while the oil and gas backlog was nearly double its level a year earlier. Construction Industries is also supported by infrastructure and rental projects, while Resource Industries benefits from demand for copper and gold, heavy construction, quarrying, and aggregates.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Tariffs remain a material pressure on profitability. Caterpillar incurred approximately $400 million in tariff costs in Q2 FY2026 and expects approximately $2.2 billion for FY2026, excluding IEEPA refunds. Without approximately $400 million in IEEPA refunds, management expects the FY2026 adjusted operating margin to be near the lower end of its targeted range despite raising its revenue outlook.
  • −Converting record demand into revenue requires precise execution of production capacity increases, and management acknowledged that Power & Energy growth is constrained by the pace of the production ramp rather than weak demand. Higher depreciation, freight, and manufacturing costs, along with increased selling, general and administrative and research and development expenses, will partially offset the impact of volume growth and pricing.
  • −Caterpillar expects Construction Industries dealer inventory to decline by more than $1 billion in Q4 FY2026, making changes in dealer inventory a headwind to segment sales volume in the second half of FY2026. This follows a $400 million increase in dealer inventory in Q2 FY2026, meaning part of the quarter's shipment strength was related to inventory rebuilding.
  • −Construction strength is not uniform geographically or by end use. In Q2 FY2026, management cited weakness in the Middle East, softer economic conditions in Asia-Pacific outside China, and a lack of strength in residential construction and some parts of Construction Industries. A broadening of this weakness could reduce the momentum currently driven by infrastructure, nonresidential construction, and rental fleets.
  • −Valuation represents a risk following the substantial rise within the 52-week range of $410.52 to $1073.46, particularly as reports on August 11, 2026 explicitly noted the stock's elevated valuation. The lowest analyst target of $785 is also well below the average target of $958.23, reflecting meaningful divergence in estimates of the value of future growth.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ended August 28, 2026 showed net selling of $26.2 million, with zero purchases and 14 sales, and the signal was classified as a strong sell. However, this remains a weaker signal than the operating and valuation risks because insider sales may be prearranged unless the context proves otherwise.
What is Caterpillar's outlook for the remainder of FY2026?

Management raised its FY2026 sales and revenues growth outlook to the mid-to-high teens and expects strong growth across all three main segments. It also raised its Machinery, Energy & Transportation free cash flow outlook to the upper half of the annual range of $6 billion to $15 billion. Conversely, it expects tariff costs of approximately $2.2 billion and the adjusted operating margin to be near the lower end of the targeted range when IEEPA refunds are excluded.

What are the main risks of investing in CAT based on FY2026 data?

The main operating risks are tariffs and higher depreciation, freight, production capacity spending, and research and development expenses, which could limit margin expansion. Construction Industries expects dealer inventory to decline by more than $1 billion in Q4 FY2026, alongside weakness in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific outside China, and some residential construction markets. Additional risks include the wide range of analyst targets between $785 and $1155 and insider net selling of $26.2 million during the three months ended August 28, 2026, while recognizing that those sales may have been prearranged.