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Stocks
Calix, Inc.
CALX

CALX Calix, Inc.

Calix, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
35.24
▲ ⁦+0.89%⁩ (+0.31)
Market Cap$2.2B
Beta1.24
52w Low52w High
33.9571.22
Last Week
⁦-6.53%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.98%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-14.01%⁩
Last Year
⁦-40.08%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall64
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 7/9SafeBetter than 64% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
37
47.0x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
87
27.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
70
5.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
85
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
43
0.00%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
6
-34.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
83
5▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$35
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$57
⁦+62%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$52–$62⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$22
⁦-39%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$22–$57⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$57.00
⁦+61.7%⁩
Current Price $35.24·Median $57.00
Low
$52.00
High
$62.00
Current price
$35.24
Average target
$57.00
Street summary

Analysis of Calix (CALX) stock price revisions

Bullish tilt

Calix stock saw a 4.92% decline in the average price target over the past thirty days, as the consensus dropped from $61 to $58, with this valuation remaining unchanged over the last week. Despite this slight reduction, the analysts' outlook remains generally positive, as the lowest observed price target ($52) significantly exceeds the current market price of $37.1, indicating expectations for the stock to rise despite the downward revision of valuations.

As of 2026-07-28
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.14
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
86%
High
Target dispersion
28%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
2
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.14
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    Roth MKM
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-04-23
    Roth MKM
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-04-23
    Needham
    —· $62.00
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    46.99x
    6.87x54.92x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    16.80x
    5.19x41.53x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    27.35x
    4.52x36.15x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    3.8%
    -54.8%10.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    27.8%
    -18.1%66.5%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    287.5%
    -155.3%193.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    56.6%
    12.9%79.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    5.3%
    -63.6%26.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    0.0%
    0.0%3.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    6.80
    -10.9113.66
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-21 data

Company Overview

Calix serves broadband service providers through the Calix One platform, which combines operations, marketing, support, and subscriber experience functions, while expanding its capabilities through Calix Agent Workforce Cloud. The revenue model relies on the sale of equipment for subscriber premises and access networks, alongside platform-related software and services revenue; management believes that subscriber additions by its customers increase the use of both equipment and cloud services.

In fiscal Q2 2026, Calix reported GAAP revenue of $293.3 million and gross profit of $160.1 million, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of approximately 54.6%. Net income was $17.1 million and earnings per share were $0.26, compared with revenue of $280.0 million and net income of $11.2 million in fiscal Q1 2026.

According to the non-GAAP figures presented by management, equipment revenue reached a record $243 million, or approximately 83% of total revenue, while software and services reached a record $50 million, or approximately 17%. Equipment revenue grew 23% year over year, and software and services grew 16%, but equipment margin declined to 52.9% due to higher memory costs, while software and services margin improved by 810 basis points sequentially after customers were moved onto a single cloud infrastructure.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue rose 21% year over year and 5% sequentially to $293 million according to management's presentation, exceeding the company's guidance range, with broad-based growth across equipment, software, and services.
  • Remaining performance obligations RPO reached a record $386 million, up 11% year over year, while current obligations totaled $162 million and grew 21%; management expects growth to accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2026 with the launch of additional agent-powered workflows.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The number of customers contracted for Calix Agent Workforce Cloud tripled during fiscal Q2 2026, with adoption spanning customers in the early adopter and late majority categories. Software and services revenue also returned to growth and reached $50 million, up 7% sequentially and 16% year over year.
  • Calix expects revenue of between $301 million and $307 million in fiscal Q3 2026, representing growth of approximately 4% at the midpoint compared with the previous quarter. The company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to the high end of the 15% to 20% growth range, supported by demand for subscriber additions, accelerating software growth, and some BEAD program revenue in fiscal Q3 and Q4 2026.
  • Calix ended fiscal Q2 2026 with $194 million in cash and investments and generated approximately $12 million in free cash flow, after spending $69 million to repurchase 1.6 million shares. Non-GAAP operating expenses also declined to 42% of revenue, compared with 45% in the previous quarter.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The launch of the AI-native version of Calix One provides a tangible path for expanding recurring revenue; the platform's first full quarter coincided with a tripling of Agent Workforce Cloud contracts and record levels for software and services revenue and RPO.
    • +The economics of the software and services mix are clearly improving, as its non-GAAP gross margin increased by 810 basis points sequentially. Management expects a new record in fiscal Q3 2026 and sees a path to exceeding 70% in the future.
    • +Underlying demand remains strong based on fiscal Q2 2026 indicators: revenue rose 21% year over year, equipment revenue grew 23%, and current performance obligations reached $162 million, up 21%. Management also confirms that the 15% revenue growth target for fiscal 2027 and 2028 remains on track, while treating it as forward-looking guidance rather than an achieved result.
    • +Liquidity of $194 million and free cash flow of $12 million in fiscal Q2 2026 give the company flexibility to fund platform growth and manage its inventory, while repurchasing $69 million of shares during the period.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Calix remains heavily dependent on equipment, which represented approximately 83% of fiscal Q2 2026 revenue; its non-GAAP gross margin fell by 460 basis points sequentially and 170 basis points year over year to 52.9% due to higher memory costs.
    • −The company expects a non-GAAP gross margin of 52% at the midpoint in fiscal Q3 2026 and also anticipates that equipment margin will bottom in that quarter. The surcharge program is designed to recover memory costs without generating additional profit, so it may be neutral to gross profit over the long term but will continue to pressure the margin percentage.
    • −Memory, fiber, labor, construction, and fuel costs could reduce customers' capital spending on access equipment; management acknowledged the possibility of weaker demand in this segment, with customers indicating that they are managing inventory more tightly. The company also cannot determine the trajectory of an equipment margin recovery in fiscal 2027 because it depends on the direction of memory prices.
    • −Customer concentration emerged in fiscal Q2 2026, as one customer represented 12% of revenue. Management expects this customer not to represent 10% of full-year fiscal revenue and does not expect the quarterly level to recur, but the figure still demonstrates that the timing of a large customer's orders can affect quarterly results.
    • −Calix's customer base faces competition from other fiber providers and satellite services such as Starlink and Amazon, and management acknowledges that the intensity of competition varies by market and city. The company links its customers' ability to address this competition to execution quality and the delivery of services such as SmartTown, outdoor Wi-Fi, and virus and intrusion protection, making the solution's success partly dependent on customers adopting these tools and implementing them effectively.
    • −Returns from Agent Workforce Cloud workflows are still being measured; on the July 21, 2026 call, management said it had begun seeing productivity indicators but had not yet completed return-on-investment measurements after 90 days. Therefore, accelerating contracts and RPO demonstrate commercial interest, but do not yet demonstrate to the same extent the amount of cost reduction or improvement in customer revenue and subscriber retention.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $57, within a range of $52 to $62, and the stock carries a consensus “Buy” rating; the average target is approximately 20% below the 52-week range high of $71.22, while the range low is $34.26. No price-to-earnings multiple is available in the data, so the stock's valuation rests on the realization of Calix One growth, RPO, and improved software margins, balanced against pressure from memory costs and an expected gross margin of 52% in fiscal Q3 2026.

    BuyAnalyst target: $57(+61.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove CALX's fiscal Q2 2026 results?

    GAAP revenue was $293.3 million, gross profit was $160.1 million, and net income was $17.1 million. According to management's non-GAAP presentation, revenue grew 21% year over year, with equipment reaching $243 million and software and services reaching $50 million. The results coincided with the first full quarter of Calix One operations and a tripling of Calix Agent Workforce Cloud contracts.

    How could Calix One change the company's business model?

    Calix One combines operations, marketing, support, and subscriber experience functions and adds agent-powered workflows through Agent Workforce Cloud. In fiscal Q2 2026, software and services generated $50 million and grew 16% year over year, while their margin improved by 810 basis points sequentially. Calix aims to increase the platform's value when its customers add subscribers, increase revenue per subscriber, or reduce churn and costs, but customer return-on-investment measurements were still in progress as of July 21, 2026.

    Why are remaining performance obligations RPO important for CALX stock?

    Total RPO reached a record $386 million in fiscal Q2 2026, up 3% sequentially and 11% year over year. The current portion totaled $162 million, up 3% sequentially and 21% year over year, which management said isolates the effect of shrinking tails from older contracts. Management expects RPO to accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2026 as contracts renew early and more customers transition to Calix One, although this remains forward-looking guidance.

    Why are Calix's margins under pressure despite revenue growth?

    Non-GAAP equipment margin declined to 52.9% in fiscal Q2 2026 due to higher memory costs, despite the application of partial surcharges. The company expects a gross margin of 52% at the midpoint in fiscal Q3 2026, with equipment margin bottoming in that quarter according to management's estimate. Calix did not raise surcharges a second time on some backlog orders in order to preserve pricing certainty for customers, but it moved to adjusting surcharges on new orders monthly with the goal of approaching full cost recovery.

    What is Calix's growth guidance after fiscal Q2 2026?

    The company expects revenue of between $301 million and $307 million in fiscal Q3 2026, an increase of approximately 4% at the midpoint from the previous quarter. It also expects fiscal 2026 revenue growth at the high end of the 15% to 20% range. Management reaffirmed its target of 15% growth in fiscal 2027 and 2028, based on accelerating software growth, subscriber additions, and the impact of the BEAD program, while acknowledging that BEAD timing has extended in some regions.

    What are the main risks to monitor for CALX?

    Equipment represented approximately 83% of fiscal Q2 2026 revenue, so rising memory costs remain a direct risk to the mix and margin. One customer also contributed 12% of quarterly revenue, although management expects it not to remain a 10% customer for the full fiscal year. Additional risks include a potential decline in customer spending on access equipment due to construction cost inflation, competition from other fiber networks and services such as Starlink and Amazon, and the fact that measurement of the actual returns from Agent Workforce Cloud workflows had not been completed as of July 21, 2026.