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Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
CALM

CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
73.98
▲ ⁦+0.37%⁩ (+0.27)
Market Cap$3.5B
Beta0.23
52w Low52w High
71.92111.76
Last Week
⁦-2.70%⁩
Last Month
⁦-10.01%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-7.37%⁩
Last Year
⁦-32.44%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall62
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 5/9SafeBetter than 62% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
82
11.2x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
6
-31.7%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
55
9.9%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
91
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
84
6.46%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
17
-24.0%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
64
33Around median
Fair Value
Current price$74
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$100
⁦+35%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$100–$100⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$117
⁦+58%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$100–$117⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$100.00
⁦+35.2%⁩
Current Price $73.98·Median $100.00
Low
$100.00
High
$100.00
Street summary

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) Forecast Analysis

Bullish tilt

The stock has seen a positive revision in its average price target over the last thirty days, rising from $90 to $100, an increase of 11.11%. This change reflects a state of complete consensus among analysts, as the price dispersion has vanished, with expectations settling at $100 as both the floor and ceiling, indicating high certainty regarding the stock's fair value in the near term.

As of 2026-07-20
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.25
Hold
Analyst coverage
4
Buy conviction
25%
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
1
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.25 → 3.25
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-13
    Benchmark
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-26
    Benchmark
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-26
    RBC Capital
    —· $100.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    11.16x
    4.61x36.85x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    19.15x
    3.86x30.86x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.10x
    2.86x22.90x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    9.5%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -31.7%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Weak
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -73.4%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    23.1%
    9.2%67.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    9.9%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    6.5%
    0.9%8.3%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    73.1%
    15.9%176.6%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    7.54
    -4.825.90
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-22 data

Company Overview

Cal-Maine Foods is the largest producer and distributor of shell eggs in the United States, according to management's description, and operates through a vertically integrated model encompassing production, grading, packaging, marketing, and distribution. Since Q4 fiscal 2026, the company has reported its business in three segments: conventional shell eggs, specialty shell eggs, and prepared foods; its portfolio includes the Sunups, Sunny Meadow, Farmhouse Eggs, 4Grain, Eggland's Best, Land O'Lakes, Van's, and Crepini brands. The company generates prepared foods revenue from products such as egg patties, omelets, hard-boiled and scrambled eggs, pancakes, waffles, and specialty wraps.

In fiscal 2026, revenue was $2.912 billion, down 31.7%, and gross profit was $672 million, with a gross margin of 23.1%. The company recorded operating income of $350.2 million, with a 12% margin, net income of $316.7 million, and diluted EPS of $6.63. The conventional egg segment generated $1.348 billion in revenue and operating profit of $216.6 million, compared with $1.070 billion and $181.5 million for specialty eggs, and $244.8 million and $33.9 million for prepared foods.

In Q4 fiscal 2026, revenue fell 49.9% to $552.6 million, and gross profit contracted to $34.1 million, with a 6.2% margin. The operating loss was $58.8 million, with a negative 10.6% margin, while the net loss was $35.9 million and diluted loss per share was $0.76. Specialty eggs and prepared foods together represented 53% of sales, but conventional eggs recorded an operating loss of $40.6 million and a negative 19.3% margin due to excess supply and historically low prices after adjusting for inflation.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The trajectory of conventional egg prices is the strongest driver of results; the average Urner Barry index was approximately $1.08 in Q4 fiscal 2026, then declined to $0.72 during the first five weeks of Q1 fiscal 2027, before management indicated on the July 22, 2026 call that prices had risen by more than 90% within a few weeks.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Cal-Maine is making progress in diversifying its mix away from conventional eggs; the combined contribution of specialty eggs and prepared foods rose to 53% of Q4 fiscal 2026 sales, compared with 44.4% of total fiscal 2026 sales. In that quarter, the prepared foods segment generated revenue of $60.4 million and operating profit of $8.8 million, with a 14.6% margin.
  • The company is investing $54 million to add approximately 30% to prepared foods capacity beginning in the first half of fiscal 2028. Together with the previously announced 30% organic expansion and the 6% capacity added through the Van's acquisition, management expects to increase the segment's total capacity by more than 60% between the end of fiscal 2026 and the first half of fiscal 2028.
  • Demand indicators support sales volumes despite weak pricing; the company's retail volumes had risen by approximately 6% since the beginning of the period discussed by management on July 22, 2026, and egg purchasing penetration exceeded 97% of households, with an average of nearly 19 purchases annually. Management also stated that approximately 22% of U.S. households include a GLP-1 medication user and linked this to demand for protein-rich foods.
  • Liquidity supports investment and resilience through the pricing cycle; the company ended Q4 fiscal 2026 with $924.1 million in cash and temporary cash investments and virtually no debt. It also repurchased 396,083 shares for $30.1 million, with $320.7 million remaining available under a repurchase authorization of up to $500 million.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The vertically integrated model and Cal-Maine's scale provide the ability to manage procurement, logistics, and customer service during periods of pricing pressure, while market-based, grain-based, and hybrid pricing arrangements provide partial protection compared with full exposure to the spot market; the mix is divided approximately equally between market-based pricing on one side and grain-based and hybrid pricing on the other.
    • +Prepared foods demonstrated an ability to generate a higher margin during Q4 fiscal 2026, with an operating margin of 14.6% compared with a negative 19.3% margin for conventional eggs. Capacity investments target products including pancakes, scrambled eggs, and Crepini products, within an addressable market that management estimated at between $9 billion and $10 billion.
    • +Specialty eggs generated annual revenue of $1.070 billion and operating profit of $181.5 million in fiscal 2026, with volumes growing 2.4% despite pricing relationships returning to more customary levels. After the end of fiscal 2026, the company also added new Eggland's Best franchise territories in the northeastern United States with the aim of expanding specialty category penetration.
    • +The $924.1 million in liquidity and virtually no debt give the company flexibility to fund prepared foods expansions, additional acquisitions, and share repurchases without heavy reliance on borrowing. Management has limited its acquisition approach to small bolt-on transactions related to eggs, prepared products, ingredients, and brands.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Earnings remain highly sensitive to the conventional egg price cycle; excess supply in Q4 fiscal 2026 caused segment revenue to decline 70% to $210.8 million and resulted in an operating loss of $40.6 million. The average Urner Barry index was also approximately $0.72 in the first five weeks of Q1 fiscal 2027, 54% below the previous quarter's average, and management said pricing in that quarter would not be considered normal or mid-cycle.
    • −The company faces material concentration in shell eggs despite its diversification strategy; conventional eggs generated $1.348 billion and specialty eggs generated $1.070 billion of the $2.912 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, while prepared foods contributed only approximately $244.8 million. Therefore, prepared foods growth will not eliminate the effect of egg market volatility on results in the near term.
    • −Growth contracted sharply in fiscal 2026, as annual revenue declined 31.7% to $2.912 billion, followed by a 49.9% decline in Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue. The decline was more severe in conventional eggs, where fiscal 2026 revenue fell 51.1%, illustrating the magnitude of the difficult comparison following the previous elevated-price cycle.
    • −Market pressure extended to specialty eggs, which are expected to be more stable; revenue declined 21.4% in Q4 fiscal 2026 to $239.7 million, and the operating margin fell to 7.3%. Management explained that approximately 10% to 12% of pricing in this segment is tied to the market, including the California market, which remained at extremely low levels during the quarter.
    • −Highly pathogenic avian influenza remains an unpredictable factor in supply and pricing; management cited infections in U.S. chicken flocks, the virus's continued presence in dairy cattle herds, and outbreaks in Australia and South Korea on July 22, 2026. Supply disruption could lead to sharp volatility rather than a stable earnings trajectory, even if it temporarily raises prices.

    Valuation

    Analyst consensus on CALM is "Neutral," and the average, highest, and lowest targets are all $100, indicating no reported dispersion among estimates. This target is approximately 14% below the 52-week range high of $116.58 and approximately 39% above its low of $71.92; the wide range reflects earnings volatility between the elevated egg price cycle and the Q4 fiscal 2026 loss. No P/E ratio is available in the data, so the valuation framework here relies on the neutral target, the 52-week range, and improving diversification versus the results' continued sensitivity to egg prices.

    HoldAnalyst target: $100(+35.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Why did Cal-Maine record a loss in Q4 fiscal 2026?

    Conventional egg prices fell to levels management described as the lowest in history after adjusting for inflation because of abundant supply, not a collapse in demand. Quarterly revenue declined 49.9% to $552.6 million, while gross margin contracted to 6.2%. The conventional egg segment recorded an operating loss of $40.6 million, bringing the consolidated operating loss to $58.8 million and the net loss to $35.9 million.

    How dependent is CALM on conventional eggs?

    Conventional eggs generated revenue of $1.348 billion in fiscal 2026, approximately 46% of total revenue of $2.912 billion. Specialty eggs generated $1.070 billion, while prepared foods recorded $244.8 million. In Q4 fiscal 2026, the combined contribution of specialty eggs and prepared foods rose to 53% of sales, indicating diversification progress while eggs remain central to the business.

    How does Cal-Maine plan to grow the Prepared Foods segment?

    The company announced a $54 million investment to add approximately 30% to Prepared Foods capacity beginning in the first half of fiscal 2028. Including a previous 30% organic expansion and 6% of capacity associated with the Van's acquisition, management expects capacity growth exceeding 60% between the end of fiscal 2026 and the first half of fiscal 2028. The announced additions include approximately 12 million pounds of pancake capacity, 17 million pounds of scrambled egg capacity, and 18 million pounds of Crepini product capacity, while management estimated the addressable market at between $9 billion and $10 billion.

    Can liquidity fund CALM's expansions and share repurchases?

    Cal-Maine ended Q4 fiscal 2026 with $924.1 million in cash and temporary cash investments and virtually no debt. Capital expenditure in fiscal 2026 was approximately $151 million, while management estimated maintenance capital expenditure at between $50 million and $60 million. It also spent $30.1 million to repurchase 396,083 shares during the quarter, with $320.7 million remaining available under the repurchase program.

    When could Cal-Maine resume its cash dividends?

    The company did not declare a cash dividend for Q4 fiscal 2026 because of its variable dividend policy tied to cumulative earnings. As of May 30, 2026, a cumulative loss of $35.9 million had to be offset before a new dividend could be paid. Under the policy described on the July 22, 2026 call, no dividend will be paid for any subsequent profitable quarter until the cumulative account since the last quarter for which a dividend was paid returns to profitability.

    What indicators could support a recovery in egg prices for CALM?

    According to management's July 22, 2026 presentation, the American Egg Board and Urner Barry indicated slowing breeder activity, increased chick order cancellations, weak hatchery demand, and accelerated flock rotation. Conversely, the American Egg Board estimated the U.S. laying hen population at between 340 million and 347 million hens, which continued to indicate abundant supply. Management stated that market prices had risen by more than 90% within a few weeks after averaging $0.72 in the first five weeks of Q1 fiscal 2027, but it did not characterize those conditions as a full return to mid-cycle.

  • −Analyst consensus reflects a neutral stance with a uniform $100 target, rather than a buy consensus, while the target itself is approximately 14% below the 52-week range high of $116.58. With no P/E ratio available in the data, it is difficult to anchor the valuation to a comparable earnings multiple, particularly after Q4 fiscal 2026 shifted to a net loss of $35.9 million.