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Stocks
Conagra Brands, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall32
Weak — below market medianValue TrapF 5/9DistressBetter than 32% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
94
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
9
-2.9%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
18
-10.7%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
41
—2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
61
9.58%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
21
-24.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
85
11▲3Top tier
CAG

CAG Conagra Brands, Inc.

Conagra Brands, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
14.61
▼ ⁦-0.61%⁩ (-0.09)
Market Cap$7.0B
Beta-0.05
52w Low52w High
12.5320.32
Last Week
⁦-9.70%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.14%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+9.52%⁩
Last Year
⁦-24.77%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$15
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$14
⁦-4%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$12–$16⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$17
⁦+17%⁩
Sees it undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$14–$17⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$14.10
⁦-3.5%⁩
Current Price $14.61·Median $14.00
Low
$12.00
High
$16.00
Current price
$14.61
Average target
$14.10
Street summary

Conagra Brands Stock Price Revision Analysis

Conagra Brands (CAG) stock has seen stability in its average price target at $14.1 over the past thirty days, despite a sharp decline in the number of analysts contributing to the forecasts from 11 to just two, which increases uncertainty regarding the accuracy of the current consensus. The stock is currently trading at $14.36, a level exceeding the average forecast (14.1) and the median price (14), suggesting a full valuation of the stock according to the remaining analysts' estimates.

As of 2026-07-23
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.76
Hold
Analyst coverage
17
Buy conviction
12%
Target dispersion
27%
Analyst ratings over time17 analysts rating
1
1
10
3
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.17 → 2.76
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-16
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-06-18
    Deutsche Bank
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-06-09
    Bank of America Securities
    Underperform
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    9.35x
    3.86x30.86x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    14.0%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -2.9%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -266.7%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    23.9%
    9.2%67.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    -10.7%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    9.6%
    0.9%8.3%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.04
    -4.825.90
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-15 data

Company Overview

Conagra Brands sells a portfolio of branded foods, with management's identified growth areas focused on frozen foods and mindful snacking. The portfolio includes meat snacks, seeds, popcorn, and certain sweet snacks, while the company has approximately 5,500 stock-keeping units. Revenue generation depends on selling these products to customers, with greater investment directed toward brands that management believes are capable of delivering profitable growth.

In Q4 fiscal 2026, revenue was $2.9 billion and gross profit was $704.1 million, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of approximately 24.3%, while the company recorded a net loss of $1.6 billion. This compares with revenue of $2.8 billion, gross profit of $657.7 million, and net income of $199.8 million in Q3 fiscal 2026, highlighting the severity of the deterioration in the net result during the latest quarter.

For fiscal 2026, Conagra generated revenue of $11.3 billion and gross profit of $2.7 billion, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of approximately 23.9%, but recorded a net loss of $1.9 billion and a loss per share of $4. Within its business mix, management is betting on frozen foods, meat snacks, seeds, popcorn, and certain sweet snacks, while reviewing approximately 5,500 stock-keeping units to reduce complexity and focus resources on brands with profitable growth opportunities.

What's Driving the Stock

  • In fiscal 2027, Conagra plans to increase brand-building spending by $40 million, or 14%, while adding $125 million to capital expenditures to support supply chain resilience and bring more production in-house.
  • Fiscal 2027 guidance expects organic volumes to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage, with weakness concentrated in frozen foods, and organic net sales to decline by approximately 2% at the midpoint of the range, versus an approximate positive impact of 3% from price and mix.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Management is targeting productivity exceeding 4% in fiscal 2027, but expected inflation of 5% remains higher than productivity savings; therefore, the company intends to implement inflation-justified price increases beginning in the middle of Q2 fiscal 2027.
  • The company cut its dividend by 50% in August 2026 and expects the reduction to provide approximately $1 billion in additional cash flow over about three years, with a large portion to be used to reduce debt and fund investment in brands and the supply chain.
  • Supply chain investments aim to maintain service levels between 98% and 98.5%, and approximately $100 million of the annual increase in capital expenditures is related to projects that bring production in-house, including the fried chicken project and protein-related investments.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Conagra achieved free cash flow conversion of 119% in fiscal 2026, the third consecutive year in which the ratio exceeded 115%, providing an important internal source for funding investment and reducing debt.
    • +The dividend cut provides approximately $1 billion in additional liquidity over about three years, which could accelerate progress toward the net leverage target of 3.0 times if the company succeeds in converting the preserved liquidity into actual debt repayment.
    • +The fiscal 2027 plan combines a $40 million increase in brand building, a $125 million increase in capital expenditures, and a productivity target exceeding 4%, providing defined paths to strengthen brands and reduce manufacturing costs.
    • +Management believes Conagra has scale, innovation, and a competitive advantage in frozen foods, and also classifies meat snacks, seeds, popcorn, and certain sweet snacks as growth drivers; insider data indicated one purchase transaction and no sales during the three months ended with the latest transaction on July 17, 2026.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Fiscal 2027 guidance indicates continued operating pressure, as the company expects organic volumes to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage and organic net sales to decline by approximately 2% at the midpoint of the range, making successful price increases necessary to offset weak demand.
    • −Operating margins have contracted from approximately 16% several years ago to fiscal 2027 guidance of between 10% and 10.5%, while management also expects a high-single-digit operating margin in Q1 fiscal 2027 due to inflation, tariffs, and increased advertising and promotional spending.
    • −Fiscal 2027 planning assumes inflation of 5% versus productivity exceeding only 4%, while the planned pricing will not begin before the middle of Q2 fiscal 2027; this leaves a cost gap and makes the outcome highly sensitive to demand elasticity, particularly in frozen foods.
    • −An analyst question on the Q4 fiscal 2026 call noted that organic volumes were heading for a sixth consecutive fiscal year of decline, and management did not provide a specific timeline for a return to volume growth, reflecting a persistent risk to fixed-cost absorption.
    • −Management expects net leverage to reach 4.0 times in fiscal 2027 despite the dividend cut and debt repayment plans, and in July 2026 it was preparing to evaluate refinancing notes due in October through commercial paper, term loans, or public bonds.
    • −The company faces an annual tariff impact of $40 million that is more heavily concentrated in Q1 fiscal 2027, alongside elevated investments in supply chain resilience and a stated goal of avoiding supply disruptions, highlighting the continued exposure of earnings to cost and execution risks.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on CAG stock is Neutral, with an average price target of $14.1 and a range between $12 and $16; the average falls within the 52-week range of $12.53–$20.32 and is approximately 31% below its high. No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data because of the fiscal 2026 net loss of $1.9 billion and loss per share of $4, so valuation improvement is linked more to demonstrating margin and volume stability and reducing leverage than to current positive earnings.

    HoldAnalyst target: $14.1(-3.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Why did Conagra Brands record a large loss in fiscal 2026?

    Conagra recorded a net loss of $1.9 billion in fiscal 2026 despite generating revenue of $11.3 billion and gross profit of $2.7 billion. In Q4 fiscal 2026 alone, the net loss was $1.6 billion on revenue of $2.9 billion. The data does not specify a detailed reason for this loss, so it cannot be attributed to any particular accounting or operating item.

    What are the key elements of Conagra's fiscal 2027 plan?

    The company is increasing brand-building spending by $40 million, or 14%, and raising capital expenditures by $125 million. It is also targeting productivity exceeding 4% and intends to implement price increases beginning in the middle of Q2 fiscal 2027 to address expected inflation of 5%. The plan directs more resources toward frozen foods, meat snacks, seeds, popcorn, and certain sweet snacks.

    What does Conagra's 50% dividend cut mean for shareholders?

    The company announced a 50% dividend cut in August 2026, reducing the direct cash income received by shareholders. Management expects this decision to free up approximately $1 billion in additional cash flow over about three years. The company plans to use a large portion of the liquidity to reduce debt while funding increased investment in brands and the supply chain.

    Can price increases offset Conagra's volume declines?

    Fiscal 2027 guidance assumes organic volumes will decline by a mid-single-digit percentage, with weakness concentrated in frozen foods. At the midpoint of guidance, organic net sales are expected to decline by approximately 2% versus an approximate positive impact of 3% from price and mix. However, management assumes higher demand elasticity than historical levels in frozen foods, so consumer response to the price increases planned for the middle of Q2 fiscal 2027 will be a decisive factor.

    How does Conagra plan to reduce debt and leverage?

    The company's long-term net leverage target is 3.0 times, but management expects it to reach 4.0 times in fiscal 2027. The dividend cut contributes approximately $1 billion over about three years, with a large portion of this liquidity directed toward debt repayment. The company achieved free cash flow conversion of 119% in fiscal 2026, the third consecutive year above 115%, but it was still evaluating options in July 2026 to refinance October maturities.

    What is the analyst rating on CAG stock, and what are the key valuation ranges?

    The analyst consensus on CAG is Neutral, and the average price target is $14.1. The target range is between $12 and $16, compared with a 52-week range of $12.53 to $20.32. No meaningful price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data because Conagra recorded a loss per share of $4 in fiscal 2026, making the recovery of earnings and margins a central factor for rerating.