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BW LPG Limited
BWLP

BWLP BW LPG Limited

BW LPG Limited · NYSE
Market Closed
25.13
▲ ⁦+0.54%⁩ (+0.14)
Market Cap$3.8B
Beta0.11
52w Low52w High
11.7225.37
Last Week
⁦+3.20%⁩
Last Month
⁦+15.54%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+22.41%⁩
Last Year
⁦+66.42%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall98
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/9Better than 98% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
92
8.6x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
40
-3.1%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
77
19.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
80
1.3x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
88
6.34%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
96
35.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
36
1▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$25
Analyst target
No data
vs
DCF (estimate)
$60
⁦+138%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target
—
Current Price $25.13
Analyst coverage
1
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-10
    Pareto
    HoldBuy
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-06-16
    Pareto
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.64x
    5.69x45.54x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    9.53x
    4.57x36.58x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.78x
    3.43x27.47x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    15.5%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -3.1%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    89.0%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    22.6%
    8.6%54.6%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    19.2%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.26x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    6.3%
    0.1%4.8%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    54.7%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-28 data

Company Overview

BW LPG Limited specializes in the seaborne transportation of liquefied petroleum gas through very large gas carriers, or VLGCs, and generates revenue and earnings from operating its fleet in the spot market, time-charter contracts, and managing integrated shipping and trading activities through BW Product Services. In Q2 FY2026, time charter equivalent shipping income was $71,600 per calendar day and $74,000 per available day, while underlying spot market performance was $85,200 per available day including waiting time and forward contract settlements, and $87,600 excluding both. Fleet utilization reached 96%, and 53% of available days came from time-charter contracts, including 43% under fixed-rate contracts.

According to the financial statements, the company recorded Q2 FY2026 revenue of $963.6 million, gross profit of $200.9 million, net income of $114.4 million, and earnings per share of $0.75. These figures correspond to a gross profit margin of approximately 20.9%, compared with about 33.3% in Q1 FY2026, when revenue was $842.0 million, gross profit was $280.6 million, and net income was $164.9 million. For the twelve months ended in 2026, revenue was $3.5 billion, gross profit was $788.2 million, net income was $438.2 million, and earnings per share were $2.91.

The Q2 FY2026 earnings call showed that profit after tax was $138 million, while profit attributable to shareholders after minority interests was $120 million, or $0.79 per share according to management's presentation. BW Product Services achieved a realized trading gain of $127 million, but recorded an after-tax loss of $31 million due to a negative unrealized change of $145 million in the mark-to-market valuation of open positions. The board declared a dividend of $0.95 per share, equivalent to 100% of the shipping business's net profit after tax and above the minimum of 75% under the dividend policy.

What's Driving the Stock

  • BW LPG fixed approximately 92% of available fleet days in Q3 FY2026 at an average of about $88,000 per day, compared with an all-in cash breakeven of $24,900 per day, providing a substantial operating spread despite some contracts being linked to market indices.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Trade-route disruptions are supporting freight rates; U.S. liquefied petroleum gas exports increased by about 16% year over year in the first half of FY2026, while Middle Eastern exports declined 46% as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, sending more U.S. cargoes to Asia over longer distances.
  • Panama Canal restrictions increased effective demand for vessel capacity, as low water levels reduced transits and diverted additional ships around the Cape of Good Hope; auction fees for some northbound transit slots exceeded $5 million, in addition to a canal fee of approximately $500,000 for an empty carrier.
  • U.S. liquefied petroleum gas exports to India grew by 212% year over year in the first half of FY2026, while exports to China rose 2%, a shift that supports long-haul voyages from North America to Asia and increases the ton-miles required from VLGCs.
  • Fleet management supports liquidity and future contracts; the company sold BW Elm and BW Birch, with expected net proceeds of approximately $64 million from BW Birch, and also sold BW Levant and fixed one of its dual-fuel retrofitted carriers on a five-year charter at a rate in the mid-to-high $40,000-per-day range, with delivery beginning at the end of 2026.
  • Liquidity at the end of Q2 FY2026 was approximately $773 million, comprising $302 million in cash and $471 million in undrawn revolving credit facilities, while net leverage declined to 23.5% from 26.3% at the end of the previous quarter.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Fixing 92% of available days in Q3 FY2026 at approximately $88,000 per day provides strong revenue visibility, while the all-in cash breakeven is only $24,900 per day, supporting cash generation if the fixed rates are realized.
    • +BW LPG directly benefits from the rerouting of liquefied petroleum gas trade; the 16% increase in U.S. exports and 46% decline in Middle Eastern exports in the first half of FY2026 made longer voyages to Asia more important and reduced the effective supply of vessels.
    • +The company combines downside protection with spot-market participation; it covered 45% of its second-half FY2026 portfolio through fixed charters and forward contract hedges at $41,000 and $48,000 per day, respectively, while retaining exposure to strong spot rates.
    • +The balance sheet supports the capital return policy and fleet renewal, with liquidity of $773 million and net leverage of 23.5% at the end of Q2 FY2026, in addition to a quarterly dividend of $0.95 per share.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz represents a direct risk to freight rates; management explained that expectations of a reopening earlier in FY2026 narrowed liquefied petroleum gas price spreads between the United States and the Far East and pressured U.S. Gulf spot rates, even though it expects flows to rebalance later.
    • −The VLGC orderbook increased to 157 vessels versus an existing fleet of 437 vessels, with deliveries accelerating through the end of 2030, which could increase capacity supply and pressure freight rates if demand and ton-miles do not grow at the same pace.
    • −Time charter equivalent shipping income in Q2 FY2026 was $74,000 per available day, below the company's guidance of $81,000, due to negative adjustments of $16.4 million under IFRS 15 and $12 million in forward contracts, equivalent to approximately $7,500 per day.
    • −The calculated gross profit margin declined from approximately 33.3% in Q1 FY2026 to approximately 20.9% in Q2 FY2026, while net income according to the financial statements fell from $164.9 million to $114.4 million despite revenue increasing from $842.0 million to $963.6 million.
    • −BW Product Services showed high sensitivity to market volatility; despite a realized trading gain of $127 million in Q2 FY2026, an unrealized valuation loss of $145 million resulted in an after-tax loss of $31 million, and management expects value at risk to remain elevated as it builds its contract portfolio through 2027.
    • −The exceptional earnings environment depends partly on geopolitical and climatic disruptions that are difficult to sustain or time, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and drought-related Panama Canal restrictions; any rapid improvement in transit conditions or return of Middle Eastern exports could shorten sailing distances and increase the effective supply of vessels.

    Valuation

    The stock's 52-week range extends from $11.72 to $25.475, a wide spread reflecting its significant sensitivity to VLGC freight-rate cycles, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Panama Canal, and volatility in BW Product Services results. According to the company's Q2 FY2026 presentation, profit attributable to shareholders represented an annualized earnings yield of 18% based on the period-end share price, but the sustainability of this level depends on freight rates after the reopening of Hormuz and the impact of 157 ordered carriers entering the market through 2030.

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove BW LPG's results in Q2 FY2026?

    The company benefited from a strong spot market and trade-route disruptions, with underlying spot shipping performance reaching $85,200 per available day including waiting time and forward contracts, and $87,600 excluding both. Fleet utilization was 96%, and the financial statements recorded revenue of $963.6 million and net income of $114.4 million. In management's presentation, profit attributable to shareholders after minority interests was $120 million, or $0.79 per share.

    Why was shipping income in Q2 FY2026 below BW LPG's guidance?

    Time charter equivalent shipping income was $74,000 per available day, compared with guidance of $81,000. Management attributed the difference primarily to a negative adjustment of $16.4 million under IFRS 15 and a negative adjustment of $12 million in forward contracts. The combined impact was equivalent to approximately $7,500 per available day, although underlying spot performance remained strong.

    How did the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Panama Canal restrictions affect BW LPG?

    In the first half of FY2026, liquefied petroleum gas exports from the Middle East declined 46%, while U.S. exports increased 16%, driving more long-haul voyages from the United States to Asia. Low water levels in the Panama Canal also caused transit restrictions and diverted additional carriers around the Cape of Good Hope, consuming more fleet capacity. However, the reopening of Hormuz could pressure U.S. Gulf rates in the short term by narrowing the price spread between the United States and the Far East.

    How visible are BW LPG's earnings in Q3 FY2026 and beyond?

    The company fixed 92% of available fleet days in Q3 FY2026 at an average of approximately $88,000 per day, noting that some contracts are index-linked and their final outcome may change. This includes fixed time-charter coverage equivalent to 41% of days at $44,300 per day, compared with an all-in cash breakeven of $24,900 per day. For 2027, 36% of capacity was fixed at $43,500 per day at the time of the August 28, 2026 call.

    Is BW LPG's dividend supported by its liquidity and balance sheet?

    The board declared a dividend of $0.95 per share for Q2 FY2026, representing 100% of the shipping business's net profit after tax and exceeding the minimum of 75% under the dividend policy. Liquidity at quarter-end was $773 million, split between $302 million in cash and $471 million in undrawn revolving facilities. Net leverage also declined to 23.5% from 26.3% at the end of Q1 FY2026, while capital expenditures and fleet renewal remain stated uses of liquidity.

    What risk does BW Product Services pose to BW LPG's results?

    BW Product Services achieved a realized trading gain of $127 million in Q2 FY2026, but unrealized valuation changes reversed the accounting result into an after-tax loss of $31 million. This included a $190 million decline in the value of cargo positions, partially offset by a $45 million increase in paper positions. Average value at risk was approximately $70 million, and management said it expects it to remain elevated as market volatility persists and the contract portfolio expands from late 2026 into 2027.