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Stocks
British American Tobacco p.l.c.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall82
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 7/9Better than 82% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
72
11.7x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
30
-1.0%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
95
—4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
53
2.8x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
81
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
42
1.5%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
77
4▲3Top tier
BTI

BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c.

British American Tobacco p.l.c. · NYSE
Market Closed
55.24
▲ ⁦+0.69%⁩ (+0.38)
Market Cap$119.1B
Beta0.13
52w Low52w High
49.8867.30
Last Week
⁦-0.79%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.76%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-9.62%⁩
Last Year
⁦-1.81%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$55
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$68
⁦+23%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$68–$68⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$68.10
⁦+23.3%⁩
Current Price $55.24·Median $68.10
Low
$68.10
High
$68.10
Street summary

Higher target consensus while valuation dispersion remains

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target rose from 40 to 68.1 over the last 7 days, an increase of 70.25%, while the number of analysts remained at 7. There was no change over the last day. The high, low, and median are also all equal to 68.1, indicating no apparent dispersion in the current price targets, and the target implies an increase of approximately 23.5% from the current price of 55.15.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+70.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
86%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
1
5
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.40 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-07
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-11
    RBC Capital
    Underperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    BTIG
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    11.68x
    4.61x36.85x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.50x
    2.86x22.90x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.4%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -1.0%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    156.7%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    83.5%
    9.2%67.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.77x
    0.61x4.86x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) operates through a multi-category portfolio combining combustibles and new nicotine categories: modern oral tobacco through Velo, vapor products through Vuse, and heated tobacco products through glo. Combustibles remain the value engine funding the transformation, while the share of smokeless products rose to 19.8% of Group revenue in Q2 FY2026, up 160 basis points year over year, and their consumer base reached 35 million after adding 4.1 million consumers over 12 months.

In Q2 FY2026, first-half Group revenue increased 2.9% at constant currency, adjusted gross profit rose 3.8%, and adjusted operating profit increased 3.5%, while the operating margin expanded by 30 basis points to 43.7%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 7.9%, and New Categories recorded revenue growth of 18% and a contribution of £269 million after growing 55%, while combustibles revenue increased 2.1% despite a 4.7% decline in volumes, driven by a 6.8% price/mix effect.

The geographic mix varied markedly in the first half of FY2026; US revenue rose 8.5% and adjusted operating profit increased 10.1%, compared with AME revenue growth of 0.9% and declines of 6.3% in APMEA revenue and 16.5% in its adjusted profit. For FY2025, revenue was $25.6 billion, net income was $7.8 billion, and earnings per share were 3.491, compared with revenue of $25.9 billion and net income of $3.2 billion in FY2024.

What's Driving the Stock

  • New Categories revenue accelerated by 18% in the first half of FY2026, led by 66% growth in modern oral tobacco; BAT shipped approximately 7.9 billion pouches, and its volume share in the most important markets for this category increased by more than 8 percentage points to 39%.
  • In the US, New Categories revenue grew nearly 60%, Velo Plus surged by more than 200%, and BAT's volume share of modern oral tobacco reached 31%, with its value share at nearly 26%. According to the July 30, 2026 presentation, Velo Max is scheduled to launch in Q3 FY2026 in two strengths and four new flavors, bringing the total number of strength levels within the Velo family to five.
  • Vuse returned to double-digit volume and revenue growth in the US, and its value share reached a record 55.9% in the first half of FY2026. The company plans to distribute adult-oriented Vuse flavors to approximately 25 thousand outlets in Q3, followed by another rollout to 25 thousand outlets in Q4, with identity verification requirements.
  • The Fit2Win program raised its annual savings target to £700 million by FY2028, including £500 million by FY2027, after identifying an additional £100 million in optimization opportunities. Management expects the second half to benefit from the timing of these savings, but it raised total non-recurring costs to £950 million, of which £840 million is treated as adjusting items.
  • For FY2026, management is targeting mid-teens New Categories revenue growth and expects earnings per share growth near the midpoint of the 5% to 8% range after raising guidance. It also expects leverage to enter the 2 to 2.5 times range by the end of FY2026 and is maintaining a £1.3 billion share buyback for the year.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +New Categories have become more economically viable, with their gross profit increasing by more than £120 million and their contribution rising 55% to £269 million in the first half of FY2026, alongside an expansion in the Group's operating margin to 43.7%.
  • +Velo has broad momentum across all three regions; modern oral tobacco revenue grew 66% across the Group, while volume share in the most important AME markets reached approximately 62% and value share reached 68.5%. Approximately 50% of modern oral tobacco revenue in AME now comes from outside the Nordic countries, indicating a broadening growth base within the markets mentioned on the call.
  • +US performance supports the multi-category transformation, with revenue increasing 8.5% and adjusted operating profit rising 10.1% in the first half of FY2026, while the share of total nicotine volumes increased by 110 basis points since the start of the year. This performance combines Vuse's leadership, Velo Plus growth of more than 200%, and 5% growth in US combustibles revenue.
  • +Cash generation provides tangible support for shareholder returns; management expects cash conversion to exceed 95% in FY2026 and free cash flow to exceed £50 billion by FY2030. This is paired with progressive dividends and a £1.3 billion share buyback in FY2026, while targeting leverage of between 2 and 2.5 times.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is "Buy," with an average target of $40 and identical high and low estimates of $40, indicating no dispersion in the available sample but also limiting the strength of comparison among opinions. This target is below the lower end of the 52-week range of $49.88 and below the upper end of $67.30, while the available data do not provide a valid price-to-earnings ratio; therefore, the valuation framework combines a nominally positive consensus with a price-target signal that is more conservative than the entire displayed annual trading range.

BuyAnalyst target: $40(-27.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving BTI's growth in FY2026?

Modern oral tobacco is driving growth, with its revenue increasing 66% in the first half of FY2026, while total New Categories revenue rose 18%. Velo Plus grew by more than 200% in the US, and the company added 4.1 million smokeless product consumers over 12 months, bringing the total to 35 million. In the July 30, 2026 presentation, management projected mid-teens New Categories revenue growth in FY2026, led by Velo and Vuse.

Has the profitability of British American Tobacco's New Categories improved?

Yes, the contribution from New Categories rose 55% to £269 million in the first half of FY2026. Gross profit from these categories also increased by more than £120 million, reflecting greater scale and more selective investment. At the Group level, adjusted operating profit increased 3.5%, and the operating margin expanded by 30 basis points to 43.7%.

How important are Velo Max and Vuse flavors to BTI's growth?

BAT intends to launch Velo Max in the US in Q3 FY2026 in two strengths and four new flavors, complementing Velo Plus and increasing the available strength levels within the family to five. For Vuse, distribution of adult-oriented flavors will begin across approximately 25 thousand outlets in Q3, followed by a second rollout to approximately 25 thousand outlets in Q4. These launches follow Vuse reaching a 55.9% value share and BAT attaining a 31% volume share of US modern oral tobacco in the first half of FY2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −The traditional business faces structural volume contraction; combustibles volumes declined 4.7% in the first half of FY2026 despite 2.1% revenue growth driven by a 6.8% price/mix effect. The company also revised its assumption for the decline in global cigarette industry volumes from 2.5% to 3% because of the significant tax increase in Brazil.
  • −APMEA faces severe regulatory and commercial pressures, with regional revenue declining 6.3% and adjusted profit falling 16.5% in the first half of FY2026. The company attributed this to illicit trade and the regulatory environment in Bangladesh and Australia, inventory movements in Vietnam, and its selective exit from certain Asian vapor markets that lacked sufficient regulation or enforcement.
  • −Heated tobacco remains a competitive weakness; glo revenue fell nearly 12% across the Group, while revenue for this category declined approximately 11% in AME and 13% in APMEA during the first half of FY2026. Management linked this to inventory movements and intensifying competition in the value segment and does not expect a material financial change in the category's performance through the end of FY2026 despite the launch of glo Hilo and Hyper Pro+.
  • −Vapor products face regulatory risks and competition from the illicit market; their revenue declined 14% in AME because of regulatory changes in Poland and fell 28% in APMEA due to market exits and more selective resource allocation. In the US, management said unauthorized products with large devices and low price points remain a gap that Vuse cannot close without regulatory enforcement.
  • −Management expects FY2026 revenue and operating profit to be at the low end of its medium-term range, while absorbing an approximately 1% negative transactional currency impact and increased investment in Velo Max, Vuse flavors, glo, and combustibles. The expected profit acceleration also depends on improvements in AME and APMEA and the timing of Fit2Win savings in the second half, increasing the sensitivity of results to any operational delays.
  • −Growth is expected to slow following the strong first half of FY2026; management expects US performance to moderate because positive inventory movements will not recur, investment will increase, and the comparison base is strong, and it estimated that inventory movements contributed approximately 2 percentage points to the 5% growth in US combustibles revenue. Full-year New Categories growth guidance also declines to the mid-teens from 18% in the first half because of stronger Velo comparisons in the second half.
What are the main operational risks facing BTI stock?

Combustibles volumes declined 4.7% in the first half of FY2026, and the company revised its estimate for the decline in global cigarette industry volumes to 3% because of Brazil. APMEA revenue declined 6.3%, and its adjusted profit fell 16.5% due to regulation, illicit trade, and inventory movements, while glo revenue declined nearly 12% because of competition and inventory movements. Vapor revenue also fell 14% in AME and 28% in APMEA due to regulatory changes and selective market exits.

What is BTI's profitability and liquidity guidance for FY2026?

Management raised its earnings per share growth guidance to near the midpoint of the 5% to 8% range in FY2026, following 7.9% growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share in the first half. It expects a net finance cost of approximately £1.65 billion and an underlying tax rate of between 24% and 25%, with cash conversion exceeding 95%. It also targets leverage of between 2 and 2.5 times by the end of FY2026, alongside a £1.3 billion share buyback.

What do British American Tobacco's latest annual results look like?

In FY2025, the company recorded revenue of $25.6 billion, net income of $7.8 billion, and earnings per share of 3.491. This compares with revenue of $25.9 billion, net income of $3.2 billion, and earnings per share of 1.36 in FY2024. Profit also improved significantly compared with FY2023, which recorded a net loss of $14.2 billion and negative earnings per share of 6.466.