| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 22 | 58.4x | 17.3x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 91 | 29.6% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 55 | 11.0% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 64 | 1.7x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 10 | 0.00% | 0.06% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 23 | -29.9% | -1.6% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 69 | 13 | 3 | Top tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
85% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Dutch Bros operates a beverage shop network focused on fast drive-thru service and generates most of its revenue from company-operated shops, alongside franchise and other revenue and CPG products. Sales drivers include Rebel and Mist energy drinks, the morning food program, limited-time offers, Dutch Rewards, and mobile order ahead; in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, more than 73% of transactions went through Dutch Rewards, while mobile order ahead accounted for about 16% of total transactions.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue reached $551 million, up 32% year over year, including $510 million from company-operated shops, or about 93% of the total, after this segment grew 34%. Company-operated shop contribution reached $156 million at a margin of approximately 31%, while adjusted EBITDA reached $114 million, up 28%, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.33 versus $0.26 in the comparable period.
Performance combined sales growth, traffic growth, and physical expansion; company-operated same-shop sales increased 8.3%, with transactions up 3.4%, while systemwide same-shop sales increased 5.8%, with transactions up 1.7%. Dutch Bros opened about 48 shops during the quarter, while the second quarter of fiscal 2026 marked the eighth consecutive quarter of transaction growth and the thirteenth consecutive quarter of same-shop sales growth.
The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $77.82 and a wide range of $68 to $88; the average is about 5% above the 52-week range high of $74.024, while its low is $44.58. No usable price-to-earnings multiple is available in the provided data, making it difficult to anchor the valuation to an earnings multiple, while the stock's 22% decline in an August 20, 2026 report despite the raised outlook reflects a reassessment related to growth multiple compression and concerns about consumer spending, rather than a reported deterioration in second-quarter fiscal 2026 results.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue reached $551 million, up 32% year over year, while company-operated shop revenue increased 34% to $510 million. Company-operated same-shop sales grew 8.3%, with transactions up 3.4%, while systemwide same-shop sales growth reached 5.8%. Management attributed the performance to the food program, the maturation of newer shops, brand marketing, and personalized Dutch Rewards offers, alongside products such as Mist.
The company expects revenue of between $2.1 billion and $2.13 billion, equivalent to annual growth of between 28% and 30%. It expects adjusted EBITDA of between $385 million and $390 million and systemwide same-shop sales growth of between 5% and 6%, trending toward the midpoint of the range. It also targets at least 150 shop openings and capital expenditures of between $350 million and $370 million during fiscal 2026.
The company launched Mist Energy Refreshers in May 2026, then kept them permanently on the menu after the energy mix grew and retention exceeded the benchmarks of previous limited-time offers. It completed the rollout of the food program across about 750 shops by the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with a menu comprising only nine items. Food helped increase morning occasions, but about 350 shops, with most of the impact among franchisees, cannot offer the hot program.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
More than 73% of transactions in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 went through Dutch Rewards, while enrolled members per shop increased by more than 50% over three years. The program recorded its strongest contribution to same-shop sales growth since the customer segmentation journey began, benefiting from personalized offers and features such as visit streaks. Mobile order ahead reached about 16% of total transactions, expanding convenience and providing additional data on customer behavior.
Dutch Bros paid $63.5 million to acquire the franchise rights and assets of 31 locations in Phoenix, including one location under development. The transaction is expected to add approximately $25 million in net revenue and about $5 million in adjusted EBITDA during the remainder of fiscal 2026. It also agreed to purchase real estate assets and locations for up to 65 Salad and Go stores in Arizona, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Texas, subject to approvals and closing conditions, with expected conversions beginning in 2027.
Beverage, food, and packaging costs reached 26.1% of company-operated shop revenue in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, up 80 basis points due to higher coffee prices and food program costs. The company expects approximately 60 basis points of pressure on cost of sales in fiscal 2026, in addition to approximately 50 basis points on occupancy due to an increase in build-to-suit leases. This is partially offset by a 90-basis-point improvement in adjusted selling, general, and administrative expenses, but the midpoint of the adjusted EBITDA outlook still assumes net margin pressure of approximately 20 basis points.