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Home
Stocks
BP p.l.c.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall92
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/8Better than 92% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
89
21.6x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
50
16.3%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
64
10.9%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
64
1.0x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
35
0.71%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
84
22.7%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
87
11▲3Top tier
BP

BP BP p.l.c.

BP p.l.c. · NYSE
Market Closed
46.10
▲ ⁦+0.04%⁩ (+0.02)
Market Cap$120.9B
Beta-0.21
52w Low52w High
32.7248.27
Last Week
⁦+3.67%⁩
Last Month
⁦+7.51%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+8.04%⁩
Last Year
⁦+35.95%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$46
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$51
⁦+10%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$46–$57⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$89
⁦+92%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$51–$89⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$51.00
⁦+10.6%⁩
Current Price $46.10·Median $50.50
Low
$46.00
High
$57.00
Current price
$46.10
Average target
$51.00
Street summary

Minor Adjustment with Divergent Valuations

The consensus target price rose over the last 30 days from 50 to 51, an increase of 2%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days and the last day. The current range is 46–57, with an average of 51 and a median of 50.5 from seven analysts, reflecting notable divergence; the increase in the number of analysts over 7 days from 2 to 7 does not in itself indicate a change in consensus. The current price of 46.1 is near the lower end of the range and below the average and median.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.47
Hold
Analyst coverage
19
Buy conviction
47%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
2↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
24%
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
3
6
8
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.63 → 3.47
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-27
    Raymond James
    OutperformMarket Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    21.64x
    3.56x28.47x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    10.09x
    3.36x26.89x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    4.49x
    2.12x16.98x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    13.4%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    16.3%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    887.9%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    22.3%
    7.8%72.1%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    10.9%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.98x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.7%
    0.4%10.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    15.3%
    11.9%109.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-04 data

Company Overview

BP p.l.c. operates as an integrated global oil and gas company, combining upstream oil and gas production with downstream refining, logistics, marketing, retail, aviation, and business-to-business channels, supported by supply, trading, and shipping activities. The company believes this integration enables it to direct supplies to the highest-value markets and absorb cyclical volatility; during the six years ended Q2 FY2026, trading added an average of approximately 4 percentage points to return on capital employed, including at least 2 percentage points from the core global portfolio.

In Q2 FY2026, BP generated an underlying profit of $5.7 billion, up 78% from the previous quarter, and an IFRS profit of $3.9 billion after net adverse adjusting items of approximately $1.1 billion and inventory holding losses of approximately $700 million. Underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax reached $10.3 billion versus $6.3 billion in the previous quarter, while news sources reported quarterly revenue of $69.11 billion and earnings per share of $2.22 versus expectations of $1.87. The context did not include a gross margin for the period, while it indicated an annual net margin of 1.8%.

The improvement in the operating mix came from an increase in underlying operating profit of approximately $1.6 billion in oil production and operations, $1.8 billion in customers and products, and $800 million in gas and low-carbon energy compared with the previous quarter. Conversely, upstream production declined 6% quarter-on-quarter to 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and refinery throughput fell 4% to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day due to seasonal and planned maintenance, Middle East disruptions, and operational issues in the North Sea and Indonesia. For annual comparison, FY2025 revenue was approximately $192.5 billion and net income was $1.3 billion, versus revenue of $194.6 billion and net income of $1.2 billion in FY2024.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Underlying profit in Q2 FY2026 jumped 78% quarter-on-quarter to $5.7 billion, supported by a strong pricing environment and stronger trading performance, with quarterly increases in earnings from oil production and operations, customers and products, and gas and low-carbon energy.
  • BP converted earnings strength into operating cash flow of $10.9 billion after a $1 billion working capital build, then reduced net debt by approximately $3.1 billion to $22.3 billion and financial liabilities by approximately $7 billion during Q2 FY2026.
  • The company increased its dividend per share by 4% in its August 4, 2026 results announcement, signaling that shareholders are benefiting from improved profit and cash flow despite the continued priority of reducing liabilities.
  • BP is targeting divestment proceeds of between $8 billion and $9 billion during FY2026, including approximately $6 billion from the announced Castrol transaction. It has also begun marketing Archaea Energy and its North Sea business and completed the sale of the Gelsenkirchen refinery on July 31, 2026.
  • Management expects financial liabilities to decline to approximately $39–41 billion by the end of FY2026 under its price assumptions and also expects a release of between $2 billion and $3 billion from working capital during the second half of FY2026, with timing dependent on prices and developments in the Middle East.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The bullish case is based on a clear improvement in profitability and liquidity in Q2 FY2026, with underlying profit reaching $5.7 billion, operating cash flow reaching $10.9 billion, and net debt declining to $22.3 billion.
  • +The integrated upstream, downstream, and trading model provides operational diversification; trading added an average of approximately 4 percentage points to return on capital employed over six years, while three key segments together contributed quarterly increases in underlying operating profit of approximately $4.2 billion.
  • +The portfolio simplification program could improve the quality of returns and the balance sheet, with expected divestment proceeds of between $8 billion and $9 billion in FY2026 and a plan to reduce financial liabilities to $39–41 billion by year-end under management's assumptions.
  • +The 4% increase in the dividend per share enhances the appeal of shareholder returns, alongside a reduction in financial liabilities of approximately $7 billion during Q2 FY2026.

▼ Selling Case7 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus on BP stock is Neutral, with an average price target of $50 and a wide range of $42 to $57. The average target is only approximately 3.6% above the 52-week high of $48.27, while the low target is below it, reflecting caution among some analysts despite the improvement in Q2 FY2026 earnings; no price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data to assess the stock on that basis.

HoldAnalyst target: $50(+8.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove BP's earnings in Q2 FY2026?

Underlying profit reached $5.7 billion, up 78% from the previous quarter, while IFRS profit reached $3.9 billion. The results benefited from a strong pricing environment and stronger trading performance, with underlying operating profit increasing by approximately $1.6 billion in oil production and operations and $1.8 billion in customers and products. Profit from gas and low-carbon energy also increased by approximately $800 million, while news sources reported earnings per share of $2.22 versus expectations of $1.87.

How did BP's debt and cash flows develop in Q2 FY2026?

Operating cash flow reached $10.9 billion after $1 billion in interest payments and a $1 billion working capital build. Net debt declined by approximately $3.1 billion to $22.3 billion, and financial liabilities fell by approximately $7 billion compared with the previous quarter. Under its price assumptions, management expects financial liabilities to reach approximately $39–41 billion by the end of FY2026, supported by organic cash flows and divestment proceeds.

How important are the sales of Castrol, Archaea Energy, and the North Sea business to BP's strategy?

BP aims to simplify its portfolio and direct capital toward assets that generate higher cash flows and returns. The plan includes approximately $6 billion from the announced Castrol transaction and the marketing of Archaea Energy, which the company acquired for $4.1 billion in 2022 and which subsequently delivered lower-than-expected returns. In 2026, the company also began marketing its North Sea business as part of its goal to generate total divestment proceeds of between $8 billion and $9 billion during FY2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Performance remains highly sensitive to oil and gas prices and geopolitical disruptions; the significant increase in Q2 FY2026 earnings benefited from a strong pricing environment and supply disruptions in the Middle East, making the sustainability of the $5.7 billion underlying profit partly dependent on factors beyond the company's control.
  • −Operating volumes declined in Q2 FY2026, with upstream production falling 6% quarter-on-quarter to 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and refinery throughput dropping 4% to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day due to maintenance, disruptions, and operational issues.
  • −Management acknowledged that safety performance during the first half of FY2026 did not reach the required level; a Castrol employee died following an incident at the Gemlik plant in Turkey in April 2026, while process safety incidents, including tier one incidents, increased compared with the same period of FY2025.
  • −The $3.5 billion in structural cost reductions have not been sufficiently reflected in earnings and cash flows due to inflation, acquired costs, and the complexity of the cost base, while management believes the company's resilience in a low-price environment remains insufficient.
  • −The portfolio review carries execution and valuation risks; the company recorded post-tax impairments of approximately $800 million in Q2 FY2026, concentrated mainly in transition businesses, while the exit from Bay du Nord led to higher exploration write-offs. The plan to sell Archaea Energy follows lower-than-expected returns on an asset BP acquired for $4.1 billion in 2022.
  • −Regulatory and operational pressures in the North Sea remain a negative factor, as BP began marketing its business there in 2026 amid high operating costs and regulatory obstacles, while the region also recorded operational issues that contributed to the decline in Q2 FY2026 production.
  • −The analyst consensus is Neutral rather than Buy, with a target range of $42 to $57 reflecting meaningful divergence in valuation estimates; the low end of the target range is also below the 52-week high of $48.27, and no price-to-earnings ratio is available to allow valuation comparisons with earnings on a consistent basis.
  • Did BP's operations improve alongside the increase in earnings?

    Earnings improved, but operating volumes declined in Q2 FY2026. Upstream production reached 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, down 6% from the previous quarter due to seasonal maintenance, Middle East disruptions, and issues in the North Sea and Indonesia. Refinery throughput also declined 4% to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day due to planned maintenance and lower refinery availability, showing that the earnings increase depended significantly on prices, mix, and trading.

    What are BP's main safety and cost risks?

    Management said that safety performance in the first half of FY2026 was not at the required level following the death of a Castrol employee after an incident at the Gemlik plant in Turkey in April 2026. Process safety incidents, including tier one incidents, increased compared with the first half of FY2025, while the investigation into the Gemlik incident remains ongoing. On costs, BP achieved $3.5 billion in structural reductions, but their impact was not sufficiently reflected in earnings and cash flows due to inflation, acquired costs, and the complexity of the cost base.

    What is BP's outlook for the rest of FY2026?

    The company set its FY2026 capital expenditure range at between $13.5 billion and $14 billion after delaying some stake sales in pursuit of better value. It expects divestment proceeds of between $8 billion and $9 billion and an underlying effective tax rate of between 35% and 40%. It also expects a release of between $2 billion and $3 billion from working capital during the second half of FY2026, but this remains conditional on the economic environment, prices, and developments in the Middle East.