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Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.
BOW

BOW Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
33.67
▲ ⁦+0.15%⁩ (+0.05)
Market Cap$1.1B
Beta-0.11
52w Low52w High
21.2135.07
Last Week
⁦+0.06%⁩
Last Month
⁦+0.66%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+31.06%⁩
Last Year
⁦+8.40%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall86
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 4/9Better than 86% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
59
18.1x17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
88
25.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
80
——Top tier
▸
Safety
24
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
—
—2.12%N/A
▸
Momentum
88
9.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
45
5▲3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$34
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$34
⁦+1%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$28–$34⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$328
⁦+874%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦12⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$34–$328⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$32.80
⁦-2.6%⁩
Current Price $33.67·Median $34.00
Low
$28.00
High
$34.00
Current price
$33.67
Average target
$32.80
Street summary

Slight improvement in the target amid declining ratings

Bearish tilt

The consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from 32 to 32.8, an increase of 2.5%, but remained unchanged over the last 7 days. The current price of 33.62 is above the consensus of 32.8, while the target range between 28 and 34 indicates limited dispersion; however, the presence of only one analyst makes this consensus weakly representative and increases uncertainty.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.57
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
29%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
2
5
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.29 → 3.57
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-10
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    Market Perform
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-04
    RBC Capital
    OutperformSector Perform
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-03
    Piper Sandler
    OverweightNeutral
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    18.10x
    3.16x25.26x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    15.48x
    2.76x22.06x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    25.0%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    25.7%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-05 data

Company Overview

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is a specialty insurance company focused on complex, non-standard, and high-severity risks, distributing its products through two integrated platforms. The artisanal underwriting platform relies on specialized underwriters to provide tailored solutions, while the digital underwriting platform includes Baleen Specialty and Bowhead Express to serve small and medium-sized businesses with greater automation efficiency. Its portfolio includes general and excess liability, professional and cyber liability, and healthcare liability, and it also generates investment income from the asset portfolio supporting its insurance obligations.

In Q2 of fiscal 2026, Bowhead reported revenue of $163.9 million, net income of $16.1 million, and earnings per share of $0.48, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 9.8%. Revenue increased from $155.7 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026, while net income remained close to its level of $16.0 million and earnings per share remained at $0.48. On a trailing-twelve-month basis ending in fiscal 2026, revenue reached $615.2 million, net income was $62.2 million, and earnings per share were approximately $1.85, compared with revenue of $551.6 million and net income of $53.8 million in fiscal 2025.

The Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings call shows that gross written premiums grew 24% year over year to approximately $217 million, with the Casualty segment contributing approximately $147 million, or about 68% of the total, Professional Liability contributing approximately $28 million, and Healthcare Liability contributing more than $30 million. The loss ratio was unchanged year over year at 66.9%, and the expense ratio declined to 28.4% from 30.4%, resulting in a combined ratio of 95.3%. Pre-tax net investment income increased 44% to $18 million, supported by the expansion of the investment portfolio, which had a book yield of 4.6% and an average credit rating of AA-.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 4, 2026, American Family Mutual Insurance announced a definitive agreement to acquire Bowhead for cash at a total value of $1.20 billion and a price of $34.00 per share; consequently, the specified transaction terms became a direct factor in valuing the stock rather than valuation relying exclusively on the standalone earnings trajectory.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Gross written premiums in Q1 of fiscal 2026 achieved year-over-year growth of 24% to approximately $217 million, with Casualty leading this expansion with $147 million in premiums and growth exceeding 20%, benefiting from the excess liability, real estate, construction projects, manufacturing, and hospitality portfolio.
  • Baleen generated more than $11 million in premiums in Q1 of fiscal 2026, more than three times the amount in the comparable period, with new business submissions growing by more than 140%, quotes by more than 110%, and new bound transactions by more than 260%. More than 75% of new submissions also received a response within 15 minutes, and the quote rate exceeded 75%.
  • Bowhead Express generated more than $3 million in premiums in Q1 of fiscal 2026 with a quote rate of approximately 65%, while digital underwriting overall accounted for slightly less than 7% of Bowhead's premiums. The platform aims to reduce manual work, with risk reviews typically taking less than 15 minutes, and Cyber Express transitioned to a no-touch model for the smallest and simplest risks.
  • During the May 5, 2026 earnings call, management projected approximately 20% growth in gross written premiums during fiscal 2026 and expanded its agreement with American Family by raising the $1 billion annual premium cap. The quota-share reinsurance agreement's share was also increased from 26% in 2025 to 33.5%, with management affirming that the expected impact on net income is approximately neutral despite a potential reduction in net earned premiums.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The combination of 24% growth in gross written premiums and approximately 40% growth in adjusted net income in Q1 of fiscal 2026 provides numerical evidence that Bowhead was expanding both its business and profitability before the acquisition announcement.
    • +The expense ratio improved by two percentage points to 28.4% in Q1 of fiscal 2026, and the company recorded a combined ratio of 95.3%, meaning that the underwriting business generated a profit before investment income was added.
    • +Baleen and Bowhead Express provide a growth path distinct from artisanal underwriting, which is more sensitive to market cycles; Baleen's premiums exceeded $11 million, and Express premiums exceeded $3 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with automated processes and short response times supporting scalability.
    • +The cash acquisition agreement announced on August 4, 2026 provides specified consideration of $34.00 per share, which equals the highest target within the analysts' target range of $28 to $34 and exceeds the average target of $32.8.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Bowhead relies heavily on industry loss data when estimating reserves for long-tail insurance lines because of its short internal track record, and incurred but not reported claims represented 91% of total reserves at the end of Q1 of fiscal 2026; therefore, future results may be sensitive to actual claims development differing from assumptions.
    • −The Healthcare Liability portfolio has exposure to sexual abuse and molestation claims, and management explained that revival statutes have brought old claims back to the surface and that coverage grants, retention terms, and attachment points vary sharply across risks and markets.
    • −Some Bowhead lines face clear competitive and pricing pressure; the company reduced its public company directors and officers liability insurance business after losing renewals to competitors whose appetite it described as excessive, and it also cited pressure from admitted insurers, non-risk-bearing managing general agents, and broker sidecar arrangements.
    • −Cyber insurance carries the potential for increased attack frequency or severity due to artificial intelligence technologies, a risk acknowledged by Stephen Sills during the May 5, 2026 earnings call. The stated protection relies on risk selection, including requirements such as multi-factor authentication and the nature of cloud operations, but these controls do not eliminate the risk of severe cyber losses.
    • −The full improvement in the expense ratio recorded in Q1 of fiscal 2026 may not persist, because management described the re-estimation of certain deferrable costs as a timing benefit that will normalize in subsequent quarters. Broker commissions also rise as more business comes from wholesalers, in addition to the higher ceding fee paid to American Family.
    • −Deutsche Bank downgraded BOW to “Hold” after the acquisition consideration was set at $34.00 per share, and Halper Sadeh LLC initiated an investigation into the fairness of the price offered to shareholders and whether the board of directors fulfilled its duties. The specified cash price limits shareholders' ability to benefit from operating growth above that level, while the legal investigation adds an element of uncertainty regarding the fairness of the consideration.

    Valuation

    The average analyst target is $32.8, within a range of $28 to $34, compared with the stock's 52-week range of $21.21 to $35.07; the cash acquisition price of $34.00 is at the highest analyst target and close to the upper end of the 52-week range. Although the recorded consensus is “Buy,” Deutsche Bank downgraded the rating to “Hold” after the transaction was announced, reflecting a shift in the valuation focus from standalone earnings growth to the specified cash consideration and the conditions for completing the acquisition; no price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data for valuing the stock on that basis.

    BuyAnalyst target: $32.8(-2.6%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving Bowhead's growth in fiscal 2026?

    Gross written premiums grew 24% year over year to approximately $217 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026. The Casualty segment led growth with $147 million in premiums, supported by excess liability, real estate, construction projects, manufacturing, and hospitality. Healthcare Liability also grew 28% to more than $30 million, while Professional Liability increased 6% to approximately $28 million. During the May 5, 2026 earnings call, management projected approximately 20% growth in gross written premiums during fiscal 2026.

    How important are Baleen Specialty and Bowhead Express to Bowhead's business?

    Baleen targets difficult primary general liability risks in the excess and specialty insurance market for small and medium-sized businesses, particularly in construction and real estate. Its premiums exceeded $11 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026, more than three times the amount in the comparable period, and more than 75% of new submissions received a response within 15 minutes. Bowhead Express, meanwhile, generated more than $3 million in premiums with a quote rate of approximately 65%, and uses structured reviews that typically take less than 15 minutes per risk. Digital business accounted for slightly less than 7% of Bowhead's total premiums in that quarter, leaving room for digital expansion according to management's outlook.

    Was Bowhead's underwriting profitable in Q1 of fiscal 2026?

    The combined ratio was 95.3% in Q1 of fiscal 2026, which is below 100% and indicates an underwriting profit before investment income. The loss ratio remained stable at 66.9% compared with the comparable period, and the expense ratio declined by two percentage points to 28.4%. The company recorded adjusted net income of $16 million, an increase of approximately 40% year over year, and an adjusted return on average equity of 14.1%. However, management said that part of the expense improvement resulted from the re-estimation of deferrable costs and will normalize in subsequent periods.

    What are the details of American Family's acquisition of Bowhead?

    On August 4, 2026, American Family Mutual Insurance announced a definitive agreement to purchase Bowhead in an all-cash transaction valued at $1.20 billion. Under the agreement, Bowhead shareholders will receive $34.00 for each share, a level equal to the highest analyst target and above the average target of $32.8. Following the announcement, Deutsche Bank downgraded BOW to “Hold.” Halper Sadeh LLC also initiated a legal investigation to examine the fairness of the price offered to shareholders and whether the board of directors fulfilled its duties.

    What are Bowhead's key reserve and reinsurance risks?

    Bowhead writes long-tail lines, and because of its short internal loss history, it relies heavily on industry-observed loss information when establishing reserves. Incurred but not reported claims represented 91% of total reserves at the end of Q1 of fiscal 2026, increasing the sensitivity of results to claims development over time. In the May 1, 2026 renewals, the company increased the quota-share reinsurance agreement's share from 26% to 33.5% and reduced the excess-of-loss agreement from 65% to 57.5%. Management said the changes are approximately neutral to net income, but they may reduce net earned premiums and investment income in exchange for lower losses and higher ceding commissions.