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Stocks
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
BOOT

BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
144.39
▲ ⁦+2.64%⁩ (+3.71)
Market Cap$4.4B
Beta1.71
52w Low52w High
133.18210.25
Last Week
⁦-2.95%⁩
Last Month
⁦-10.38%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+2.01%⁩
Last Year
⁦-13.68%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall63
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 7/9SafeBetter than 63% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
58
18.3x17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
83
17.6%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
64
12.2%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
70
1.6x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
26
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
26
0.8%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
84
11▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$144
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$215
⁦+49%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$207–$226⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$32
⁦-78%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.0⁩% discount · ⁦8⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$32–$215⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$217.00
⁦+50.3%⁩
Current Price $144.39·Median $215.00
Low
$207.00
High
$226.00
Current price
$144.39
Average target
$217.00
Street summary

Boot Barn (BOOT) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

Boot Barn stock has seen a downward revision in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus falling from $228.25 to $217, a decline of 4.93%. However, this valuation has remained unchanged over the last two weeks, with low dispersion noted among analysts (range between $207 and $226), reflecting a strong consensus on the stock's fair value despite the recent cut.

As of 2026-08-17
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.06
Buy
Analyst coverage
16
Buy conviction
94%
High
Target dispersion
13%
Analyst ratings over time16 analysts rating
2
13
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.06 → 4.06
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-10
    Stephens & Co.
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    BTIG
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-06-17
    TD Cowen
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    18.25x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    16.35x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.46x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    2.7%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    17.6%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    24.6%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    38.5%
    12.0%66.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    12.2%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.65x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.45
    -2.656.14
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. is a specialty retailer of Western footwear and apparel and work-related products, selling through its store network and digital platforms, led by bootbarn.com. Its offering is divided between exclusive brands such as Cody James, Hawx, Idyllwind, Cleo, and Cheyenne, and third-party brands that play an important role, particularly in work boots; the company benefits from serving essential occupational demand alongside demand associated with the Western lifestyle. At the end of Q1 FY2027, the network comprised 566 stores across 49 states after opening 27 stores during the quarter.

In Q1 FY2027, revenue rose 18% to $593.5 million according to EDGAR data, and gross profit reached $239.9 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 40.4%. Net income reached $70.1 million, representing a net margin of approximately 11.8%, while diluted earnings per share were $2.29, up 32% from $1.74 in the comparable period. The company also reported operating income of $91 million and an operating margin of 15.3%.

Growth was broad but uneven across channels and categories: same-store sales increased 3.8% and comparable e-commerce sales rose 13.4%, while consolidated same-store sales increased 4.7%. Men's and women's apparel grew at a high-single-digit rate, denim led with double-digit growth, and work boots delivered high-single-digit growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, while women's Western boots declined at a mid-single-digit rate after growing in the mid-teens in the comparable period.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Store expansion is the largest quantitative growth driver: Boot Barn opened 27 stores in Q1 FY2027 and is targeting 70 openings during FY2027, with expected average annual revenue of $3.2 million per new store and an investment payback period of less than two years, within a long-term opportunity to reach 1,200 stores in the United States.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Management raised the upper end of its FY2027 outlook to revenue of $2.6 billion, representing 16% growth, net income of $281 million, and diluted earnings per share of $9.23, representing 26% growth. The outlook includes 4% same-store sales growth, comprising 3% for stores and 13% for e-commerce.
  • Pricing and purchasing economics improved in Q1 FY2027; merchandise margin expanded by 60 basis points due to economies of scale, volume-discount purchasing, higher full-price selling, and appropriate product selection. Management expects merchandise margin to expand by approximately 50 basis points during FY2027, in addition to a 10-basis-point improvement in freight.
  • Work boots have become a prominent driver following the reorganization of their presentation in stores, increased marketing focus, and a deeper assortment of third-party brands; they delivered high-single-digit same-store growth in Q1 FY2027, and performance continued at the same rate in July 2026. Demand included both pull-on boots and lace-up boots, with greater strength in the latter, while workwear grew at a high-single-digit rate in July 2026.
  • The digital channel continues to expand customer reach; comparable e-commerce sales grew 13.4% in Q1 FY2027, driven by double-digit growth at bootbarn.com. Buy online, pick up in store and ship-to-store services support customer traffic and reduce fulfillment costs, while exclusive-brand websites and TikTok Shop continue to attract visits and build brand awareness.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The FY2027 plan combines double-digit revenue growth with improved profitability; the upper end of guidance indicates revenue growth of 16%, a 100-basis-point increase in operating margin to 14.3%, and a 26% increase in diluted earnings per share to $9.23.
    • +New stores have strong economics according to management data: expected average annual revenue of $3.2 million, a payback period of less than two years, and all stores generate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at the store level. The company also opened 93 stores during the twelve months ended Q1 FY2027, equivalent to a 20% increase in store count.
    • +Channels and categories provide multiple growth drivers; comparable e-commerce sales increased 13.4%, work boots and workwear achieved high-single-digit growth, while denim grew at a double-digit rate in Q1 FY2027. This diversification reduces growth's dependence on a single Western category.
    • +The financial position provides flexibility to fund expansion and return capital; the company ended Q1 FY2027 with $139 million in cash and no borrowings under its credit facility, then doubled its capacity to $500 million and extended its maturity to 2031. It also repurchased more than 158 thousand shares for $25 million during the quarter, bringing total purchases since FY2026 to $75 million.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Consolidated same-store sales slowed from 4.7% growth in Q1 FY2027 to approximately flat during the first four weeks of Q2 FY2027, and July 2026 sales came in below management's expectations. Even with management attributing part of the weakness to fewer music events and the impact of World Cup matches on traffic, Q2 FY2027 guidance assumes same-store growth of no more than 2% at the upper end versus 5.4% in June 2026.
    • −Women's Western boots declined at a mid-single-digit rate in Q1 FY2027, and the slowdown in Western categories in July 2026 was more pronounced in women's boots than in men's. The company is increasing inventory, colors, and styles in women's leather boots at a price point of approximately $280, but continued traffic weakness or unsuccessful assortment adjustments could pressure the category.
    • −A nonrecurring portion of the FY2027 earnings improvement depends on tariff refunds; they added $14.7 million and 250 basis points to merchandise margin and $0.38 to earnings per share in Q1. The company expects an annual benefit of $17.8 million and $0.46 per share, so underlying earnings growth would be weaker than the reported figures when excluding this benefit.
    • −Margins remain exposed to tariffs and freight; the FY2027 outlook was based on a tariff rate between 10% and 12%, and management said it would adjust prices if rates change. Container costs also increased during the months preceding the July 29, 2026 call, and higher oil prices and fuel surcharges could place additional pressure on freight in the following fiscal year despite renegotiations with logistics providers.
    • −The success of third-party brands in work boots reduced exclusive-brand penetration below expectations, and management expects penetration in FY2027 to be flat or slightly lower than in FY2026, after it had been slightly above 40%. Although this reflects healthy demand for work products, it delays progress toward management's long-term target of 50% and limits the exclusive mix's contribution to margin expansion.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $217 and a relatively narrow range between $207 and $226; the average is above the 52-week range high of $210.25, while the stock's full range extends from $133.18 to $210.25. This valuation is supported by expected earnings-per-share growth of 26% to $9.23 in FY2027, but the quality of the comparison requires considering that $0.46 of expected earnings is associated with nonrecurring tariff refunds.

    BuyAnalyst target: $217(+50.3%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove Boot Barn's growth in Q1 FY2027?

    Revenue increased 18% to $593.5 million, driven by the opening of 27 stores and 4.7% growth in consolidated same-store sales. Same-store sales increased 3.8%, while comparable e-commerce sales rose 13.4% due to double-digit growth at bootbarn.com. Work boots, men's and women's apparel, and denim also supported performance, while net income reached $70.1 million and diluted earnings per share reached $2.29.

    Can Boot Barn maintain its pace of store openings?

    The company is targeting 70 store openings during FY2027 after adding 27 stores in Q1, bringing the network to 566 locations across 49 states. Management expects a new store to generate average annual revenue of $3.2 million with an investment payback period of less than two years. The company says all its stores generate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at the store level, while it estimates its long-term opportunity at approximately 1,200 stores within the United States.

    Why did sales slow at the beginning of Q2 FY2027?

    Consolidated same-store sales were nearly flat during the first four weeks of Q2 FY2027, after growing 4.7% in the previous quarter. Management attributed the weakness in July 2026 to fewer Western lifestyle events and televised World Cup matches, in addition to the comparison with 11% same-store growth in July 2025. Based on July performance and historical seasonality, the company set the upper end of quarterly guidance at revenue of $582 million, same-store growth of 2%, and diluted earnings per share of $1.65.

    How important are work boots and exclusive brands to Boot Barn's performance?

    Work boots delivered high-single-digit same-store growth in Q1 FY2027 for the fifth consecutive quarter, and this rate continued in July 2026. The growth followed improved in-store presentation, increased marketing, the addition of third-party brands, and deeper inventory of popular products, with greater strength in lace-up boots than pull-on boots. The success of third-party brands reduced exclusive-brand penetration below plan, so management expects penetration in FY2027 to be flat or slightly lower, while maintaining its long-term target of 50%.

    How did tariff refunds affect FY2027 results?

    The refunds added $14.7 million to merchandise margin in Q1 FY2027, equivalent to 250 basis points, and also added $0.5 million to interest income. The benefit to diluted earnings per share was $0.38 during the quarter, out of reported earnings of $2.29. Management expects an annual benefit of $17.8 million, 70 basis points in merchandise margin, and $0.46 in earnings per share during FY2027.

    What is management's outlook for FY2027?

    At the upper end, Boot Barn expects revenue of $2.6 billion, representing 16% growth over FY2026, with same-store sales growth of 4%. It expects a gross margin of 38.7%, an operating margin of 14.3%, and operating income of $374 million. It is also targeting net income of $281 million and diluted earnings per share of $9.23, along with net capital expenditures of $130 million.

    −
    Boot Barn competes with independent stores, Farm and Ranch chains, and others in Western and work product categories, even though management described the promotional environment on July 29, 2026 as disciplined. A change in competitors' promotional intensity could weaken full-price selling, one of the drivers underpinning expectations for merchandise margin expansion in FY2027.