| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 87 | 7.5x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 86 | 13.5% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 66 | 27.7% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 84 | — | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 38 | — | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 56 | 17.4% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 90 | 5 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Blue Bird Corporation manufactures school buses and specialty vehicles, generating revenue primarily from Type C and Type D buses, Micro Bird’s Type A buses, and parts. Its offering includes diesel, gasoline, propane, and electric buses, with buses featuring alternative powertrains accounting for 54% of units sold in Q3 fiscal 2026. The company has also expanded into commercial shuttle buses through Micro Bird and plans to enter the Class 5-6 commercial vehicle chassis market through F-53/F-59 in collaboration with Ford.
In Q3 fiscal 2026, revenue reached $517.2 million and gross profit was $103.4 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 20%, while net income according to EDGAR data was approximately $185.3 million and earnings per share were $5.27. On an adjusted operating basis, the company reported net income of $45 million, diluted earnings per share of $1.28, record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $71.4 million with a 13.8% margin, and adjusted free cash flow of $28 million.
Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue comprised $369 million from Blue Bird buses, approximately $25 million from parts, and $123 million from Micro Bird in the first quarter in which its results were fully consolidated. The group sold 3,525 buses, including 1,235 Micro Bird units, while electric vehicle sales reached 355 units, or approximately 10% of total volume. Consolidated revenue increased by approximately $119 million year over year, but Micro Bird contributed approximately $123 million of the increase, while core Blue Bird bus revenue declined 1%.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The average analyst price target is $89, within a relatively narrow range of $85 to $95, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The average is approximately 6.7% above the recorded 52-week range high of $83.39, while the lowest target of $85 is also slightly above that high; this reflects expectations for continued earnings growth but leaves limited room for error if pressure from Micro Bird’s margins persists or the F-53/F-59 project ramp is delayed.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Quarterly revenue reached $517.2 million and gross profit was $103.4 million, with a gross margin of approximately 20%. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $71.4 million, a margin of 13.8%, and adjusted net income of $45 million. The consolidation of Micro Bird contributed approximately $123 million in revenue and $7.8 million in adjusted EBITDA. Total units sold reached 3,525 buses, including 1,235 Micro Bird units.
Blue Bird will design, manufacture, and market the next generation of F-53/F-59 chassis, while Ford will provide the new medium-duty powertrain and collaborate on transferring customer relationships. The agreement runs through the end of 2033 with an option to extend through 2036 and adds a $1.4 billion addressable market. The company expects to invest approximately $90 million in 2027, including $50 million in capital expenditures, and begin production in Q1 calendar 2028. It is targeting approximately 10,000 units in 2030 and more than $100 million in adjusted EBITDA over the longer term.
The consolidated backlog was approximately 4,900 units at the end of Q3 fiscal 2026, including approximately 3,500 Type C and Type D buses and approximately 1,300 Micro Bird units. Blue Bird orders increased 9% during the twelve months ended that quarter, compared with 7% industry growth. Demand is supported by a base of more than 250,000 school buses over ten years old, as well as buses from the 2017–2019 period entering the replacement cycle. However, core Blue Bird units declined 7% year over year because a high number of GSA and fleet buses were in finished goods inventory and their revenue recognition was delayed.
The group sold 355 electric buses in Q3 fiscal 2026, including 300 Blue Bird buses and 55 Micro Bird units, with electric vehicles accounting for approximately 10% of total units. The electric vehicle order backlog reached 776 units, with production and deliveries extending into fiscal 2027. All alternative powertrains, including electric, propane, and gasoline, represented 54% of the unit mix during the quarter. The company also stated on August 5, 2026 that funding from rounds two and three of the EPA Clean School Bus program remained in place and was flowing to customers.
Management expects revenue of between $1.74 billion and $1.76 billion in fiscal 2026, with a midpoint of approximately $1.75 billion. It raised the adjusted EBITDA range to $245–250 million, equivalent to approximately 14% of revenue. It also expects adjusted free cash flow of between $125 million and $135 million, despite exceptional capital expenditures of up to $5 million representing fiscal 2026’s share of the new plant investment. The guidance includes a slight reduction in the unit forecast compared with the previous outlook, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 14% expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
The consolidation of Micro Bird added significant revenue but reduced gross margin by approximately 180 basis points in Q3 fiscal 2026 and pressured reported adjusted EBITDA margin to 13.8%. The F-53/F-59 project requires an investment of approximately $90 million in 2027 and a production ramp during 2028 and 2029 before reaching the 2030 target. Quarterly adjusted free cash flow also declined by $24 million year over year to $28 million due to working capital and finished goods inventory. The cyclicality of the RV and last-mile delivery markets and tariff volatility remain factors that could affect volumes and margins.
