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Stocks
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall64
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 8/9SafeBetter than 64% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
63
20.0x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
56
9.1%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
58
13.2%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
71
2.4x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
61
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
46
-2.8%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
44
16▲3Around median
BJ

BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
91.49
▲ ⁦+2.05%⁩ (+1.84)
Market Cap$11.4B
Beta0.23
52w Low52w High
83.21105.78
Last Week
⁦-1.36%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.63%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.08%⁩
Last Year
⁦-6.19%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$91
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$110
⁦+20%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$105–$115⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$49
⁦-46%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$49–$110⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$110.00
⁦+20.2%⁩
Current Price $91.49·Median $110.00
Low
$105.00
High
$115.00
Current price
$91.49
Average target
$110.00
Street summary

BJ's Wholesale Club Stock Price Revision Analysis

The stock saw stability in the average price target at $110 during the last week, following a slight decline of 1.35% compared to the end-of-July levels, which were at $111.5. This adjustment reflects a more conservative outlook by analysts, with a positive price gap between the current price ($90.65) and the lowest observed price target ($105), indicating expectations for price growth despite the reduction in the overall target.

As of 2026-08-31
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.30
Hold
Analyst coverage
23
Buy conviction
48%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
11%
Analyst ratings over time23 analysts rating
11
10
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.40 → 3.30
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-24
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-24
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    William Blair
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    19.98x
    4.61x36.85x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    19.28x
    3.86x30.86x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.34x
    2.86x22.90x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    3.1%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.1%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    4.8%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    18.2%
    9.2%67.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    13.2%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.37x
    0.61x4.86x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.55
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-21 data

Company Overview

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. operates membership-based wholesale clubs and generates revenue from sales of groceries and perishables and consumables, general merchandise and services, fuel, as well as membership fees. In Q2 fiscal 2026, membership reached 8.5 million members, membership fee income increased 9.9% to $136 million, and higher-tier membership reached approximately 43% of the base; according to management, this tier spends more and renews at higher rates. The digital convenience ecosystem includes online shopping, club pickup, same-day delivery, and ExpressPay, alongside the AI-powered shopping assistant Bev.

According to EDGAR filings, the company recorded revenue of $6.2 billion, gross profit of $1.1 billion, net income of $173.9 million, and earnings per share of $1.36 in Q2 fiscal 2026; this equates to a calculated gross margin of approximately 17.7% and a net income margin of about 2.8%. On the August 21, 2026 call, management reported that net sales reached $6.1 billion, up 15.9%, and comparable club sales increased 11.9%, while comparable merchandise sales excluding gasoline grew 3.1%. The merchandise gross margin rate declined by approximately 20 basis points, but adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 14.3% to $347 million, and adjusted earnings per share increased 19.3% to $1.36.

The growth mix in Q2 fiscal 2026 was broad across the business: comparable sales in perishables, grocery, and consumables increased 2.8%, led by grocery, while general merchandise and services increased 5.3%, supported by consumer electronics and home products. Comparable fuel gallons also increased 10.5% at a time when industry data indicated a decline of approximately 5%, and fuel profit above plan contributed meaningfully to the earnings beat. Based on the latest twelve-month period presented for 2026, revenue totaled $22.8 billion, gross profit was $4.2 billion, net income was $594.5 million, and earnings per share were approximately $4.65.

What's Driving the Stock

  • BJ's raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance range for fiscal 2026 to $4.60–$4.80, while maintaining its forecast for comparable club sales growth excluding gasoline at 2%–3%; management explained that the earnings increase largely reflects the fuel business's outperformance in Q2 fiscal 2026.
  • Membership reached 8.5 million members in Q2 fiscal 2026 after adding more than one million members over two years, and membership fee income increased 9.9% to $136 million. Higher-tier memberships reached approximately 43%, and the number of co-branded credit card members exceeded two million.
  • Digitally enabled sales grew 30% in Q2 fiscal 2026, with two-year cumulative growth reaching 64%, while digital channels accounted for approximately 19% of the business. Bev also conducted more than 100 thousand conversations with members, and management reported that users of digital tools spend more and renew their memberships at higher rates.
  • The company opened three clubs in Texas during Q2 fiscal 2026 in Waxahachie, Fort Worth, and Grand Prairie, bringing its total number of clubs in the state to four. Memberships in Texas exceeded plan by more than 30%, and all four fuel stations ranked within the top 30% of the chain by gallons, with two ranking within the top 10%.
  • The category management program targets reducing the number of stock-keeping units by approximately 20% over two years, from about 7,500 units in a legacy club to approximately 6,000–6,500 units, while removing duplicate options and adding innovative products and underserved categories. Early results appeared in the strength of beverages and Active Nutrition and the refresh of housewares, textiles, and refrigeration assortments.
  • Comparable fuel gallons increased 10.5% in Q2 fiscal 2026 versus an industry decline of approximately 5%, supporting fuel profit and earnings per share. The company has 50% more fuel stations compared with the time of its initial public offering, and more than two million members in the co-branded card program benefit from a daily discount of $0.10 or $0.15 per gallon.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The membership base demonstrated quantitative and qualitative strength in Q2 fiscal 2026: 8.5 million members, 9.9% growth in fee income, record higher-tier penetration of approximately 43%, and 2%–3% growth in members at existing clubs. This supports recurring fee revenue and increases spending and renewal opportunities.
  • +The value model delivered measurable operating gains, as the company recorded its eighteenth consecutive quarter of traffic growth and its fifteenth consecutive quarter of market share gains. Units also grew more than 300 basis points above the market in Q2 fiscal 2026, while comparable merchandise sales growth was split approximately evenly between traffic and basket size.
  • +Digital channels provide an additional driver of loyalty and spending; digitally enabled sales grew 30% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and two-year cumulative growth reached 64%. Tools with momentum include ExpressPay, club pickup, same-day delivery, and Bev.
  • +Liquidity and the balance sheet support funding expansion and returning capital; adjusted free cash flow reached $266 million in Q2 fiscal 2026 versus $87 million in the comparable period, and net leverage was 0.5 times. The company repurchased $124 million of shares, with approximately $422 million remaining under the existing authorization.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $110 and a range of $105 to $115; the average is approximately 4% above the 52-week range high of $105.78, while the lower end of the target range is near that high. This range reflects confidence in membership growth, expansion, and digitalization, but leaves limited room between the 52-week high and the average target, particularly given the 20-basis-point decline in merchandise margin and the substantial reliance of the fiscal 2026 earnings guidance increase on fuel.

BuyAnalyst target: $110(+20.2%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove BJ's results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Net sales increased 15.9% to $6.1 billion according to the August 21, 2026 call, while EDGAR filings showed revenue of $6.2 billion and net income of $173.9 million. Comparable merchandise sales excluding gasoline grew 3.1%, and comparable sales of general merchandise and services increased 5.3%, led by consumer electronics and home products. Growth of 10.5% in comparable fuel gallons also lifted fuel profit above plan, increasing adjusted earnings per share 19.3% to $1.36.

Why is membership an important driver for BJ stock?

BJ's membership base reached 8.5 million members in Q2 fiscal 2026, after adding more than one million members over two years and more than three million members since the initial public offering. Membership fee income increased 9.9% to $136 million, and higher-tier memberships represented approximately 43% of the base. However, management expects fee income growth to moderate to an exit rate of approximately 6% by the end of fiscal 2026 as the impact of the previous fee increase fades.

What is the significance of BJ's expansion in Texas?

BJ's opened three clubs in Waxahachie, Fort Worth, and Grand Prairie during Q2 fiscal 2026, bringing its total number of clubs in Texas to four. Memberships in the state exceeded plan by more than 30%, and all four fuel stations ranked within the top 30% of the chain by gallons, with two stations within the top 10%. Management explained on August 21, 2026 that a new club typically requires three to five years to reach its normal operating potential.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Most of BJ's growth depends on higher-income members, despite comparable sales growth across all income segments in Q2 fiscal 2026. The continued K-shaped economy makes broader growth across the lower-income customer base an important factor in sustaining momentum.
  • −The increase in fiscal 2026 earnings per share guidance was driven largely by the fuel business's outperformance, including 10.5% growth in comparable gallons and fuel prices declining from their peak in a manner favorable to earnings. Because management maintained its forecast for comparable sales growth excluding gasoline at 2%–3%, a decline in fuel contribution could expose more moderate underlying growth.
  • −The merchandise gross margin rate declined by approximately 20 basis points in Q2 fiscal 2026 due to pricing investments, and the tariff refunds that funded part of these investments were nearly exhausted as of August 21, 2026. Management identified alternative funding sources including vendor recoveries, assortment improvements, retail media, and fuel, but realizing these sources remains necessary to avoid greater pressure on margins.
  • −Management expects membership fee income growth to slow from approximately 10% in Q2 fiscal 2026 to an exit rate of approximately 6% by the end of fiscal 2026 as the impact of the previous fee increase subsides. This expected slowdown reduces the contribution of one of the most recurring income sources and one closely linked to the quality of the membership base.
  • −The average analyst price target is $110, only approximately 4% above the 52-week range high of $105.78, while the lowest target of $105 is near that high. Therefore, valuation upside depends on achieving the high target of $115 and on continued membership growth, margins, and expansion without setbacks.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 25, 2026 recorded net selling of $3.9 million, distributed across nine sales with no purchases. This is a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data provide no evidence to the contrary.
How does BJ's use digital channels and artificial intelligence?

Digitally enabled sales grew 30% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and two-year cumulative growth reached 64%, with penetration of approximately 19% of the business. Services include online shopping, club pickup, same-day delivery, and ExpressPay, and management says their users spend more and renew their memberships at higher rates. The AI-powered shopping assistant Bev conducted more than 100 thousand conversations to help members find products and check club hours.

What is BJ's plan to improve assortment and margins?

The category management program targets reducing the number of stock-keeping units by approximately 20% over two years, from about 7,500 units in legacy clubs to approximately 6,000–6,500 units. The plan is not limited to removing products, but replaces duplication with innovative products and underserved categories, and early results have appeared in beverages, Active Nutrition, and home products. Nevertheless, the merchandise gross margin rate declined 20 basis points in Q2 fiscal 2026, making the realization of vendor savings, assortment improvements, and retail media important for funding pricing investments.

What is BJ's outlook for fiscal 2026?

Management maintained its forecast for comparable club sales growth excluding gasoline at 2%–3% for fiscal 2026. It raised the adjusted earnings per share range to $4.60–$4.80 after Q2 fiscal 2026 results outperformed, particularly in the fuel business. As of August 21, 2026, the announced expansion plan included seven additional clubs and one relocation during the remainder of fiscal 2026, within a targeted pace of 25–30 new clubs every two years.