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Birkenstock Holding plc
BIRK

BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc

Birkenstock Holding plc · NYSE
Market Closed
31.13
▲ ⁦+1.43%⁩ (+0.44)
Market Cap$5.7B
Beta1.30
52w Low52w High
30.2553.31
Last Week
⁦-9.11%⁩
Last Month
⁦-16.32%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-27.25%⁩
Last Year
⁦-40.86%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall44
Weak — below market medianContrarianF 8/8Better than 44% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
73
14.6x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
70
12.9%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
68
10.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
64
1.9x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
17
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
15
-29.8%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
36
15▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$31
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$51
⁦+64%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$35–$55⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$20
⁦-37%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.1⁩% discount · ⁦6⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$20–$51⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$48.05
⁦+54.4%⁩
Current Price $31.13·Median $51.00
Low
$35.00
High
$55.00
Current price
$31.13
Average target
$48.05
Street summary

Divergence in BIRK price targets amid declining coverage

The consensus price target rose to 48.05 from 47.35 over one day, an increase of 1.48%, but declined from 48.72 seven days ago and from 48.17 30 days ago; the monthly change is therefore nearly stable at -0.25%. The current range is between 35 and 55, with a median of 51, reflecting notable dispersion among analysts compared with the current price of 31.13. The number of analysts included in the consensus also fell from 11 to 7 over the day and week, while remaining unchanged over 30 days, reducing the consensus’s comparability and indicating less broadly held confidence.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.05
Buy
Analyst coverage
22
Buy conviction
82%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
64%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time22 analysts rating
5
13
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.05
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    Guggenheim
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    BMO Capital
    OutperformMarket Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    14.59x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.65x
    2.75x22.03x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    5.4%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    12.9%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    12.2%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    54.8%
    12.0%66.5%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    10.3%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.93x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-13 data

Company Overview

Birkenstock Holding plc designs, produces, and sells footwear built around its anatomical footbed, with a portfolio that includes sandals, closed-toe shoes, and clogs, featuring styles such as Arizona, Boston, Naples, Utti, Mayari, Madrid, and Siena. The company generates revenue through its direct-to-consumer channel, which includes owned stores and e-commerce, and through its business-to-business channel; it also manages distribution to preserve scarcity and full-price selling, while core and permanent products account for between 75% and 80% of the business.

In Q3 of fiscal year 2026 ended June 30, 2026, revenue reached €720 million, up 13% on a reported basis and 15% at constant currencies. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached €242 million, up 11%, and its margin reached 33.7%, representing a year-over-year decline of 70 basis points; adjusted net income also reached €134 million, up 15%, and adjusted earnings per share were €0.74, up 19%. Adjusted gross profit margin declined 130 basis points to 59.2% due to 60 basis points of currency pressure and 70 basis points from U.S. tariffs, but increased 10 basis points when excluding these two factors.

Growth was broad-based across regions and channels in Q3 of fiscal year 2026: the Americas increased 14%, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa increased 15%, and Asia-Pacific increased 23% at constant currencies, or approximately 30% when excluding the impact of timing in Australia. Direct-to-consumer growth accelerated to 16%, owned-store revenue increased 50% with high-single-digit comparable-store sales growth, while the business-to-business channel increased 15%. On a trailing-twelve-month basis in 2026 EDGAR data, the company recorded revenue of $2.1 billion, gross profit of $1.2 billion, and net income of $378.8 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its fiscal year 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15% at constant currencies, at the high end of the previous range of 13% to 15%, and raised its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization outlook to at least €710 million.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The retail network expanded to 124 owned stores after 13 openings in Q3 of fiscal year 2026, and the company continues to target approximately 140 stores by the end of fiscal year 2026; this was accompanied by 50% retail revenue growth and high-single-digit comparable-store sales growth.
  • The contribution from closed-toe shoes increased by more than 500 basis points, and closed-toe styles excluding Boston grew by more than 50%; Naples units also increased more than fourfold and Utti units more than doubled compared with Q3 of fiscal year 2025. Product mix contributed more than half of average selling price growth, despite pressuring the gross margin percentage by approximately 40 basis points.
  • China grew by more than 50% in Q3 of fiscal year 2026 and became the company's largest market in Asia-Pacific during the quarter, with the highest average selling price globally. The entire region increased 23% at constant currencies, while management expects it to grow at twice the rate of the other regions during fiscal year 2026.
  • Direct-to-consumer channel growth accelerated to 16% at constant currencies, compared with 12% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, supported by stores, e-commerce, improved content and user experience, payment options, and loyalty programs. In Europe, 93% of sales are generated at full price despite increased promotional activity in the broader retail market.
  • The company repurchased €230 million of shares and refinanced €428.5 million of notes bearing interest at 5.25% through the issuance of €900 million of new notes due in 2033 bearing interest at 4.5%. Cash and cash equivalents reached €694 million on June 30, 2026, with the potential to allocate an additional €500 million to share repurchases or the refinancing of other debt depending on market conditions.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Revenue growth of 15% at constant currencies in Q3 of fiscal year 2026, with double-digit growth in all three regions, provides quantitative evidence that demand did not depend on a single geographic market during the period.
    • +The expansion of closed-toe shoes gives the company use cases extending across the seasons; this category's contribution increased by more than 500 basis points, non-Boston styles grew by more than 50%, while Naples and Utti delivered strong unit growth and a higher average selling price.
    • +The company's ability to capture the retail margin and direct customer relationship is improving, as owned stores grew 50%, the direct-to-consumer channel accelerated to 16%, and comparable-store sales increased by a high-single-digit percentage in Q3 of fiscal year 2026.
    • +Cash generation supports flexibility for investment and capital returns; operating cash flow reached €774 million during the two years ended in fiscal year 2026, compared with capital expenditure of €189 million, and the company completed a €230 million repurchase during the quarter.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Profitability is under clear pressure despite sales growth; adjusted gross profit margin declined 130 basis points to 59.2%, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin declined 70 basis points to 33.7% in Q3 of fiscal year 2026. The fiscal year 2026 outlook keeps adjusted gross margin at 57% to 57.5% and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin at 30.2% to 30.5%.
    • −The shift toward closed-toe shoes creates a trade-off between profit value and margin percentage, as manufacturing complexity and increased production minutes caused 40 basis points of gross margin pressure in Q3 of fiscal year 2026. These products carry a higher average selling price and gross profit per pair, but a continued increase in their weight may limit margin percentage expansion until production efficiencies or greater in-house manufacturing are achieved.
    • −Currencies, tariffs, and logistical disruptions present interconnected risks to results; currencies reduced reported revenue growth by approximately 180 basis points, and currencies and U.S. tariffs together imposed 130 basis points of pressure on adjusted gross margin. Management expects a negative currency impact of 350 basis points on fiscal year 2026 revenue and combined pressure of approximately 200 basis points from currencies and tariffs on margins, in addition to higher shipping costs related to Middle East conflicts.
    • −Consumers remain more price-sensitive amid increased discounting by retailers, raising the risk of competition for discretionary spending. Birkenstock maintained 93% of its European sales at full price, but a sustained promotional environment could test pricing discipline, particularly as stores and inventory expand.
    • −The inventory-to-sales ratio increased to 37% in Q3 of fiscal year 2026 from 33% in the previous quarter, although more than half of the increase was related to currencies and capitalized tariffs, with most of the remainder related to Australia. Net leverage also increased to 1.8 times on June 30, 2026, from 1.5 times on September 30, 2025, following the share repurchase, and management expects to end fiscal year 2026 at 1.6 to 1.7 times.
    • −Insider data show net sales of $1.1 billion during the three months ended August 17, 2026, through three sales and no purchases. This remains a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the provided data do not reveal the motivations behind those transactions.

    Valuation

    The average price target in the analyst consensus is $48.72, within a wide range of $41 to $55, with a consensus Buy recommendation. The average is approximately 6% below the 52-week high of $51.99, while the highest target exceeds that level by approximately 6%; growth optimism is offset by margin pressure from currencies, tariffs, and the closed-toe shoe mix. No listed price-to-earnings ratio is available to rely on, so the valuation assessment in the provided data centers on the target range and its divergence from the 52-week range of $31.12 to $51.99.

    BuyAnalyst target: $48.72(+56.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove BIRK's results in Q3 of fiscal year 2026?

    Quarterly revenue reached €720 million, up 13% on a reported basis and 15% at constant currencies. The Americas grew 14%, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa grew 15%, and Asia-Pacific grew 23% at constant currencies. Direct-to-consumer channel growth also accelerated to 16%, and owned-store revenue increased 50% with high-single-digit comparable-store sales growth.

    What is Birkenstock's outlook for fiscal year 2026?

    The company raised its revenue growth outlook to 15% at constant currencies, at the high end of the 13% to 15% range. It expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of at least €710 million and a corresponding margin of between 30.2% and 30.5%. It also expects adjusted earnings per share of between €1.90 and €2.05, adjusted gross profit margin of between 57% and 57.5%, and capital expenditure of between €110 million and €130 million.

    Why is Birkenstock expanding into closed-toe shoes?

    The contribution from closed-toe shoes increased by more than 500 basis points in Q3 of fiscal year 2026, expanding the use of the company's products beyond sandal season. Non-Boston styles grew by more than 50%, Naples units increased more than fourfold, while Utti unit growth exceeded twofold. These products generate a higher average selling price and gross profit per pair, but they pressured the gross margin percentage by approximately 40 basis points due to manufacturing complexity.

    How important are China and Asia-Pacific to BIRK's growth?

    China grew by more than 50% in Q3 of fiscal year 2026 and became the company's largest market in Asia-Pacific during that quarter. Management described China as the market with the highest average selling price globally, with its growth driven by expansion in owned stores, partner stores, and local events. The region grew 23% at constant currencies, or approximately 30% when excluding the impact of revenue timing in Australia, and the company expects annual growth at twice the rate of the other regions.

    What are Birkenstock's main margin risks in fiscal year 2026?

    Adjusted gross profit margin declined by 130 basis points to 59.2% in Q3 of fiscal year 2026. Of the pressure, 60 basis points came from currencies and 70 basis points from U.S. tariffs, while the closed-toe shoe mix added 40 basis points of pressure, partially offset by a 50-basis-point improvement in production capacity absorption. Management expects combined pressure of approximately 200 basis points from currencies and tariffs on fiscal year 2026 margins, alongside higher shipping and logistics costs related to Middle East conflicts.

    How is Birkenstock using liquidity and debt in fiscal year 2026?

    The company repurchased €230 million of shares and ended Q3 of fiscal year 2026 with €694 million in cash and cash equivalents. It repaid €428.5 million of notes bearing interest at 5.25% and issued €900 million of new notes due in 2033 bearing interest at 4.5%, increasing recurring interest expense by approximately €4.5 million each quarter. Net leverage was 1.8 times on June 30, 2026, with a target of between 1.6 and 1.7 times by the end of fiscal year 2026, while an additional €500 million may be allocated to share repurchases or debt refinancing depending on market conditions.