| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 60 | 22.5x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 64 | 14.6% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 94 | — | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 79 | 0.3x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 19 | — | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 86 | 67.2% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 61 | 8 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
BHP Group Limited is a diversified mining group that generates its earnings and cash flows from copper, iron ore, and steelmaking coal, while building a new potash business through the Jansen project in Canada. In fiscal 2026 Q2, just over half of the group's earnings came from copper, following a 30-percentage-point increase in this business's contribution over three years, while Western Australia Iron Ore retained its role as a low-cost production base and cash flow contributor.
According to the latest annual EDGAR filings, fiscal 2025 revenue declined to $51.3 billion from $55.7 billion in fiscal 2024, but net income rose to $9.0 billion from $7.9 billion, and earnings per share increased to $1.774 from $1.555. However, fiscal 2025 net income remained below $12.9 billion in fiscal 2023 and far below $30.9 billion in fiscal 2022, illustrating the continued sensitivity of results to commodity price cycles.
In the fiscal 2026 Q2 results published on February 17, 2026, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew by 25% and its margin reached 58%, while adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached $6.2 billion and return on capital employed reached 24%. Copper delivered a record $8 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, representing more than half of the group total and a 66% margin, alongside a 2% increase in group production and an improvement in unit costs of approximately 4.5% despite inflation exceeding 2% and currency pressures.
The analyst consensus on BHP is Neutral, with an average target of $71.5 and a wide range between $48 and $95, reflecting significant disagreement over the sustainability of copper earnings and the risks of the commodity cycle and execution. The average target is approximately 27.6% below the 52-week range high of $98.71, while the highest target is also below that high, and the lowest target falls below the range low of $51.83; therefore, the consensus does not provide a uniform bullish signal despite improved fiscal 2026 earnings.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
In fiscal 2026 Q2, copper generated a record $8 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, representing just over half of the group total, and its margin reached 66%. Copper's contribution to earnings increased by approximately 30 percentage points over three years due to Olympic Dam reliability, improved ore grades and mining sequence at Escondida, and the acquisition of OZ Minerals. BHP is targeting average growth of approximately 5% annually in the copper business and an increase in production of approximately 40% by 2035.
BHP raised its cumulative copper production guidance by 150 thousand tonnes across fiscal 2026 and 2027. After raising Escondida guidance for fiscal 2026, the company set the fiscal 2027 range at between 1 million and 1.1 million tonnes. It expects to add more than 500 thousand tonnes over five years compared with what it announced during the 2024 Chile site visit, equivalent to approximately $5 billion in additional earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization based on the prices and margins referenced in the February 17, 2026 call.
Yes, Western Australia Iron Ore operations recorded record production and shipments in the first half of fiscal 2026, and C1 costs reached approximately $17.66 per tonne after rising by only 1%. BHP is targeting an increase in production to more than 305 million tonnes annually by the end of fiscal 2028 and a reduction in costs to below $17.50 per tonne over the medium term. However, the strikes that began at Port Hedland on August 8, 2026, and the failure of wage negotiations on August 18, 2026, place shipment continuity at direct operational risk.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
BHP declared interim distributions of $3.7 billion for fiscal 2026 Q2, equivalent to $0.73 per share and a 60% payout ratio, with the amount per share 46% higher compared with the previous half. The group returned more than $110 billion to shareholders during the previous decade through distributions, share buybacks, and demergers. The Antamina and Western Australia power agreements are also expected to unlock more than $6 billion, within an opportunity to release liquidity that could reach $10 billion for reinvestment or increased shareholder returns.
Jansen in Canada establishes a large potash business with demand drivers and customer markets that differ from copper, iron ore, and coal. BHP expects each stage, after the production ramp-up is complete, to generate approximately $1 billion annually in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at a margin exceeding 60%. First production remained targeted for mid-2027, but the Stage 1 cost estimate increased to $8.4 billion in January 2026, making spending and schedule control a key focus for investors.
