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Stocks
BGC Group, Inc
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall92
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/8Better than 92% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
69
29.7x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
86
27.6%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
91
——Top tier
▸
Safety
27
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
67
0.66%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
84
1.3%▼2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
50
2▼3Around median
BGC

BGC BGC Group, Inc

BGC Group, Inc · NASDAQ
Market Closed
12.17
▼ ⁦-0.41%⁩ (-0.05)
Market Cap$5.8B
Beta0.95
52w Low52w High
8.2712.89
Last Week
⁦+0.16%⁩
Last Month
⁦+13.10%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+8.56%⁩
Last Year
⁦+21.34%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$12
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$12
⁦-6%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$12–$12⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$14
⁦+19%⁩
Sees it undervalued
⁦8.6⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$12–$14⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$11.50
⁦-5.5%⁩
Current Price $12.17·Median $11.50
Low
$11.50
High
$11.50
Street summary

BGC Group Price Target Analysis

Current data for BGC Group indicates a state of caution and uncertainty, as the number of analysts providing price targets has decreased from two to just one over the past thirty days. The price target has stabilized at 11.5, which is below the current trading price of 11.85, implying that the stock is currently trading at a premium exceeding analyst estimates.

As of 2026-09-02
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.50
Strong Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦2 (-1)⁩
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time2 analysts rating
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.50 → 4.50
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2024-07-31
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight· $11.50
  • = Reiterate2024-05-06
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight· $10.00
  • = Reiterate2024-04-12
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight· $9.00
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    29.68x
    3.16x25.26x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    8.20x
    2.76x22.06x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.69x
    3.07x24.55x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.3%
    -19.9%19.1%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    27.6%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    41.4%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    9.8%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.97x
    0.25x7.31x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.7%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    19.5%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

BGC Group operates as a global brokerage and financial markets infrastructure platform, generating revenue from trade execution and brokerage services across interest rates, energy, commodities, shipping, foreign exchange, credit, and equities. Alongside its traditional brokerage business, the company is expanding its electronic Fenics business, which includes trading platforms, market data, connectivity networks, and post-trade services, as well as FMX, PortfolioMatch, and Lucera; giving it a mix of trading volume-related revenue and technology and data revenue.

In Q2 FY2026, BGC recorded record revenue for the quarter of $845.5 million, up 7.8% year over year, while net income according to EDGAR was approximately $72.5 million and earnings per share were $0.15, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 8.6%. On the adjusted basis presented by management, pre-tax earnings were $192.9 million, up 11.1%, after-tax earnings were $171 million, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.35, while adjusted EBITDA reached $228.7 million.

Brokerage revenue in Q2 FY2026 was approximately $771.4 million, led by energy, commodities, and shipping at $275.5 million, followed by interest rates at $221.9 million, foreign exchange at $118.7 million, credit at $79.3 million, and equities at $76 million. At the same time, Fenics revenue increased 14.3% to $186.2 million, including $152.8 million for Fenics Markets and $33.4 million for growth platforms, while data, network, and post-trade revenue increased 18.6% to $36.7 million excluding Case.

What's Driving the Stock

  • FMX is advancing in the U.S. cash Treasury market; average daily volume in Q2 FY2026 increased to $79.4 billion, up 17%, and market share reached a record 42% compared with 35% a year earlier.
  • Average daily contracts on the FMX Futures Exchange increased to approximately 54 thousand contracts, more than 16 times the level a year earlier, and total open interest ended at more than 140 thousand contracts compared with approximately 22 thousand a year earlier. The company also announced during the July 30, 2026 call its plan to add the remaining U.S. Treasury futures maturities across the full curve on August 3, 2026, after the platform had been limited to the 2-year and 5-year contracts.
  • The announced partnership with Fanatics added a new pathway for prediction markets, combining BGC's institutional client network with Fanatics' customer base of more than 100 million. The agreement provides for an upfront payment, an additional performance-linked return, and a license for exchange data, with an opportunity to develop new predictive datasets, but the company did not disclose the financial values of the agreement during the July 30, 2026 call.
  • In June 2026, BGC launched BGC Compute Infrastructure Markets to develop a secondary market for compute and memory capacity through cash-settled derivatives and physically delivered over-the-counter transactions. Management described the business as an extension of its energy operations, but confirmed on July 30, 2026 that the market was still too nascent to provide revenue guidance.
  • Management expects Q3 FY2026 revenue of between $775 million and $835 million, compared with $737 million a year earlier, and adjusted pre-tax earnings of between $172 million and $190 million, compared with $155.1 million. The midpoint of the ranges represents growth of approximately 9% for revenue and 17% for earnings, indicating continued operating leverage if the assumptions are realized.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Growth in Q2 FY2026 was broad-based across all asset classes, with interest rates growing 10.6%, foreign exchange 9.4%, energy, commodities, and shipping 5.3%, credit 5.4%, and equities 2.8%. Revenue in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa also increased 11.2%, while revenue in the Americas increased 6.1%.
  • +The electronic businesses are outpacing the group's growth; Fenics revenue increased 14.3%, Fenics Markets revenue increased 16.5% excluding Case, and Fenics growth platform revenue increased 22.9%. Within this ecosystem, PortfolioMatch average daily volume grew 82% to a record $431 million, and Lucera revenue increased 15%.
  • +Q2 FY2026 results demonstrated positive operating leverage, as adjusted pre-tax earnings increased 11.1% and adjusted earnings per share increased 12.9%, compared with revenue growth of 7.8%, while the incremental pre-tax margin was 31.3%. At the midpoint of Q3 guidance, management expects earnings growth to outpace revenue growth, supported by incremental growth and cost savings implemented during FY2026.
  • +BGC had liquidity of $861.4 million on June 30, 2026, while Kroll and JCRA upgraded the company's credit ratings to BBB+ and A-, respectively. This strengthens its financial capacity as it expands FMX and develops prediction markets and compute infrastructure.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $11.5, while the highest and lowest targets are both $11.5. This target is within the 52-week range of $8.27–$12.89, approximately 39.1% above the low and approximately 10.8% below the high. This reflects a positive assessment of the business, but the lack of dispersion among published targets makes the consensus less useful for measuring the execution risks of the FMX expansion and new ventures.

BuyAnalyst target: $11.5(-5.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove BGC's growth in Q2 FY2026?

Revenue was $845.5 million, up 7.8%, with growth across all asset classes. Interest rates revenue increased to $221.9 million, foreign exchange to $118.7 million, and energy, commodities, and shipping to $275.5 million. Fenics also grew 14.3% to $186.2 million, making the electronic businesses a faster-growing driver than the group as a whole.

Why is FMX important to the investment thesis for BGC?

FMX UST achieved record average daily volume of $79.4 billion in Q2 FY2026 and increased its market share to 42% from 35% a year earlier. Average futures volume was approximately 54 thousand contracts per day, more than 16 times the level recorded a year earlier, while open interest exceeded 140 thousand contracts. Management said during the July 30, 2026 call that buy-side client onboarding was accelerating, but it did not provide a numerical market-share target.

What is the potential value of BGC's partnership with Fanatics?

The partnership announced in July 2026 aims to build a prediction markets ecosystem serving retail and institutional participants. The deal combines BGC's institutional network and its data and analytics capabilities with Fanatics' customer base of more than 100 million. BGC will receive an upfront payment, a performance-linked return, and a data license, but management did not disclose the financial values or revenue-sharing details on July 30, 2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −The energy, commodities, and shipping business represents significant exposure to geopolitical and operational shocks; management described it as its largest asset class at approximately 36% of the business, and its revenue was $275.5 million in Q2 FY2026. Despite the category's 5.3% growth, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz reduced oil and refined product volumes, illustrating the sensitivity of revenue to disruptions in trading routes and physical markets.
  • −Asia-Pacific revenue declined 2.9% in Q2 FY2026, while Europe, the Middle East, and Africa grew 11.2% and the Americas grew 6.1%. Continued regional divergence could limit the breadth of global growth if the region does not return to a positive trajectory.
  • −Revenue growth slowed to 7.8% in Q2 FY2026, compared with growth of more than 24% for first-half revenue as a whole, meaning the latest quarterly pace was below the momentum recorded at the beginning of the year. The Q3 guidance range also begins at $775 million, and management links the width of the range to July and August seasonality and continued geopolitical tensions.
  • −FMX's future contribution depends on continuing to attract participants and increase contract volumes; despite substantial growth, average futures volume was approximately 54 thousand contracts per day in Q2 FY2026, and management still declines to set a numerical market-share target for the third year. Therefore, the conversion of gains in market share and open interest into margins exceeding those of the existing brokerage businesses may be delayed.
  • −The financial viability of BGC Compute Infrastructure Markets remains unquantifiable based on the published information; management said on July 30, 2026 that the market was very nascent and provided neither revenue guidance nor a timeline for its appearance in results. BGC also did not disclose the financial values of the upfront payment or the performance-linked return in the Fanatics partnership, leaving the scale of these two drivers' contribution undefined.
  • −The analysts' target is $11.5, approximately 10.8% below the 52-week range high of $12.89, while the highest and lowest targets are identical at the same figure. This zero range among estimates limits the ability to test differences between scenarios and makes a return toward the 52-week high dependent on exceeding growth and margin expectations.
What does management expect for Q3 FY2026?

BGC expects revenue of between $775 million and $835 million, compared with $737 million in the corresponding period. Expected adjusted pre-tax earnings range from $172 million to $190 million, compared with $155.1 million, with the midpoint representing growth of 17%. The company also expects a tax rate on adjusted earnings of between 11% and 14% for FY2026 as a whole.

Are BGC's profitability and margins improving?

In Q2 FY2026, adjusted pre-tax earnings increased 11.1% to $192.9 million, exceeding revenue growth of 7.8%. Adjusted after-tax earnings increased 11.2% to $171 million, and adjusted earnings per share increased 12.9% to $0.35. The incremental pre-tax margin was 31.3%, while management attributed the improvement to business growth and cost savings implemented during FY2026.

What are the main operational risks facing BGC?

Oil and refined product volumes in Q2 FY2026 were affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, despite energy, commodities, and shipping revenue growing 5.3% to $275.5 million. Asia-Pacific revenue declined 2.9%, in contrast to growth in the other two regions. Revenue from BGC Compute Infrastructure Markets and the economics of the Fanatics partnership also remain undefined, while FMX's expansion depends on continuing to attract participants and increase trading volumes.