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Stocks
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall21
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketSucker StockF 3/9Better than 21% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
31
24.4x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
39
4.3%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
31
0.0%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
57
1.6x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
31
2.44%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
23
-6.3%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
74
19▲3Top tier
BABA

BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Alibaba Group Holding Limited · NYSE
Market Closed
109.30
▲ ⁦+0.68%⁩ (+0.74)
Market Cap$260.1B
Beta0.51
52w Low52w High
91.99192.67
Last Week
⁦-2.23%⁩
Last Month
⁦-14.51%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-5.27%⁩
Last Year
⁦-25.70%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$109
Analyst target · 12 analysts
$175
⁦+60%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$160–$209⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 12 analysts setting price target
$180.57
⁦+65.2%⁩
Current Price $109.30·Median $175.00
Low
$160.00
High
$209.00
Current price
$109.30
Average target
$180.57
Street summary

Slight decline in the target price while valuations remain positive

The average target price fell to 180.57 from 183.17 over 7 days, and to 180.57 from 185 over 30 days, a decline of 1.42% and 2.39%, respectively. The number of analysts remained unchanged at 12, indicating that the decline reflects estimate adjustments rather than a change in the coverage base. The range is between 160 and 209, with a median average of 175, reflecting notable variation among the targets.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-2.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.10
Buy
Analyst coverage
40
Buy conviction
95%
High
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
45%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time40 analysts rating
8
30
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.05 → 4.10
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-07
    Bernstein
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-28
    Susquehanna
    Positive
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-25
    UBS
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    24.40x
    4.56x36.49x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    30.98x
    2.75x22.03x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    -4.3%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.3%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -156.7%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    38.1%
    12.0%66.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    0.0%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.62x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.4%
    0.1%5.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-20 data

Company Overview

Alibaba Group Holding Limited operates through an ecosystem combining e-commerce, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and consumer services. In Q1 of fiscal year 2027, the E-commerce Group generated revenue of 205.9 billion yuan, distributed across China e-commerce, quick commerce, international commerce, and global wholesale commerce, while the cloud business benefits from selling computing and storage capacity, models as a service, and artificial intelligence applications. The company reorganized its segment reporting into the E-commerce Group, Cloud and AI Computing Services, AI Labs and Applications, and Other Businesses.

In Q1 of fiscal year 2027, the group's revenue rose 9% year over year to 269 billion yuan, but adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization declined 30% to 27.3 billion yuan, and net income under accounting standards fell 75% to 10.4 billion yuan. The E-commerce Group generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of 39.7 billion yuan, nearly unchanged year over year, while AI Labs and Applications recorded a loss of 13.9 billion yuan and Other Businesses recorded a loss of 3.3 billion yuan. By contrast, cloud revenue rose 45%, and the segment's adjusted earnings margin reached approximately 12%, showing that improving cloud economics have not yet fully offset the cost of intensive technology investment.

For fiscal year 2026, revenue amounted to 1,023.7 billion dollars and gross profit to 407.5 billion dollars, compared with revenue of 996.3 billion dollars and gross profit of 398.1 billion dollars in fiscal year 2025. Accordingly, the gross profit margin changed slightly from approximately 40.0% to approximately 39.8% based on the reported figures, while net income declined from 130.1 billion dollars to 103.6 billion dollars and earnings per share fell from 6.7 to 5.5. These figures reflect limited annual revenue growth alongside clear pressure on profitability, despite strong acceleration within cloud and artificial intelligence.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Alibaba Cloud revenue from external customers rose 45% in Q1 of fiscal year 2027, its highest rate in 22 quarters, while the segment's adjusted earnings increased 133% and its margin reached 11.6%–12%. Management expects revenue growth to continue accelerating and the margin to improve quarter by quarter as the supply of computing capacity increases.
  • Artificial intelligence-related products generated quarterly revenue of 12.4 billion yuan and an annualized revenue run rate of 49.5 billion yuan, following triple-digit growth for the twelfth consecutive quarter, and now account for 35% of external cloud revenue. The annualized revenue run rate for model and application services, including models as a service, also exceeded 16 billion yuan in August 2026, and management is targeting 30 billion yuan by the end of 2026.
  • Alibaba spent approximately 67.7 billion yuan in capital expenditures in Q1 of fiscal year 2027, bringing cumulative spending to 190 billion yuan under a three-year investment plan worth 380 billion yuan. Management links this spending to computing demand that exceeds supply and says chip servers typically reach breakeven within three years, with the payback period potentially reduced to 2.5 years or less through improved margins and increased use of T-Head chips.
  • Zhenwu chips have served more than 650 customers on Alibaba Cloud since early August 2026, and the company commercially launched a supernode built on the Zhenwu M890 processor that can run inference for models exceeding two trillion parameters. Both Kimi K3 and Qwen 3.8 Max use this architecture to provide model services to customers, while downloads of the Qwen series surpassed three billion and resulted in more than 300 thousand derivative models.
  • China quick commerce revenue grew 45% to 53.3 billion yuan in Q1 of fiscal year 2027, driven by Freshippo and Taobao Instant Commerce, with improving unit economics and quarter-over-quarter reductions in losses. Management is targeting overall profitability for quick commerce in fiscal year 2029 and expects transactions in non-food categories to surpass food transactions during the following fiscal year.
  • In August 2026, Alibaba completed a secondary offering in Hong Kong that raised 80 billion Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to approximately 10.2 billion U.S. dollars, to finance artificial intelligence expansion. The offering was priced at 112.70 Hong Kong dollars per share at an 8.4% discount, making the assessment of returns on new investments and capital allocation efficiency a direct driver of sentiment toward the stock.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Alibaba Cloud's acceleration to 45% growth, alongside an increase in the segment's margin to approximately 12% and triple-digit growth in artificial intelligence-related product revenue for the twelfth consecutive quarter, represents the strongest operational evidence that Alibaba's investments are translating into scalable revenue.
  • +Alibaba has vertical integration across T-Head chips, cloud infrastructure, Qwen models, and applications such as QwenWork, enabling it to generate revenue from computing, models as a service, and applications instead of relying on a single layer. Zhenwu's reach to more than 650 customers and Qwen downloads surpassing three billion support the expansion of the technology ecosystem.
  • +The E-commerce Group maintained adjusted earnings of 39.7 billion yuan in Q1 of fiscal year 2027 despite spending on user experience and technology, while quick commerce grew 45% and unit economics improved. This provides a large core business capable of supporting investment in cloud and artificial intelligence.
  • +Net cash amounted to approximately 30.7 billion dollars as of June 30, 2026, or approximately 46.5 billion dollars when excluding debt with maturities exceeding five years, according to management's presentation. This liquidity gives the company the ability to finance its 380 billion yuan artificial intelligence plan, although the success of the investment case remains tied to converting spending into cash flows and actual returns on capital.

Valuation

Analyst consensus rates BABA stock a Buy, with an average target of 183.17 dollars within a wide range of 160 to 209 dollars; the average is only a limited distance from the 52-week range high of 192.67 dollars, while the highest target exceeds that peak. By contrast, the price-to-earnings ratio of 28.6 times cited in the August 24, 2026 news imposes valuation discipline following the 75% decline in net income in Q1 of fiscal year 2027, while the wide 52-week range of 91.99 to 192.67 dollars reflects high sensitivity to expectations for returns on artificial intelligence spending and dilution risks resulting from the August 2026 offering.

BuyAnalyst target: $183.17(+67.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What was Alibaba's main growth driver in Q1 of fiscal year 2027?

Alibaba Cloud was the clearest driver, with external revenue growing 45% year over year, its highest rate in 22 quarters. Artificial intelligence-related products generated 12.4 billion yuan in quarterly revenue and represented 35% of external cloud revenue. The segment's adjusted earnings margin also increased to 11.6%–12%, and management expects growth to continue accelerating and the margin to improve in subsequent quarters.

Have Alibaba's artificial intelligence investments begun generating commercial returns?

The Q1 fiscal year 2027 results indicate the generation of actual commercial revenue, as the annualized revenue run rate for artificial intelligence-related products exceeded 49.5 billion yuan after 12 consecutive quarters of triple-digit growth. The annualized revenue run rate for model and application services exceeded 16 billion yuan in August 2026, and management is targeting 30 billion yuan by the end of 2026. However, free cash flow recorded an outflow of 44.7 billion yuan, so the investment cycle has not yet translated into positive cash generation at the group level.

Why did Alibaba's earnings decline despite revenue growth?

In Q1 of fiscal year 2027, revenue rose 9% to 269 billion yuan, but net income declined 75% to 10.4 billion yuan. The company attributed this to lower income from operations, reduced gains from investment disposals, and changes in the market value of investments, alongside capital expenditures of 67.7 billion yuan on cloud infrastructure. The AI Labs and Applications segment also recorded an adjusted loss of 13.9 billion yuan due to investment and higher inference costs in the Qwen application.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Investment in artificial intelligence placed substantial pressure on profitability and liquidity in Q1 of fiscal year 2027; net income fell 75% to 10.4 billion yuan, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization declined 30% to 27.3 billion yuan, and free cash outflow widened to 44.7 billion yuan from 18.8 billion yuan a year earlier.
  • −Some new growth drivers remain loss-making or far from profitability; the AI Labs and Applications segment recorded an adjusted loss of 13.9 billion yuan due to investment and higher inference costs, while management is not targeting overall profitability for quick commerce before fiscal year 2029.
  • −The group's annual revenue growth slowed from approximately 5.9% in fiscal year 2025 to approximately 2.8% in fiscal year 2026, and annual net income declined from 130.1 billion dollars to 103.6 billion dollars. In Q1 of fiscal year 2027, customer management revenue fell 7% and would have grown by only 1% after excluding the offsetting accounting effect of the new business development program.
  • −E-commerce faces multiple pressures; management described the domestic environment as being affected by short-term macroeconomic challenges and acknowledged that tariffs and the geopolitical environment weighed on international e-commerce growth. The data also indicated intense competition in Chinese technology, raising the cost of defending market share in cloud and commerce.
  • −The August 2026 offering of 80 billion Hong Kong dollars adds shareholder dilution and capital allocation efficiency risks, particularly because it was priced at an 8.4% discount. The Hong Kong listing declined 8.54% following the offering, compared with estimated mechanical dilution of approximately 3.57%, indicating that the market reaction included concerns beyond the mere increase in the number of shares.
  • −The price-to-earnings ratio cited in the August 24, 2026 news is approximately 28.6 times, while the enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization multiple is 14.1 times, neither of which is low relative to an operating margin of 4.2% and a net margin of 7.0% in the same data. The insider signal also carries a strong sell rating, with net sales of 45.1 million dollars over three months and 6 sales compared with 3 purchases, although insider sales may be prearranged and are not sufficient on their own to prove business weakness.
How important are T-Head chips and Qwen models to Alibaba's business?

Alibaba connects T-Head chips, its data centers, and Qwen models to reduce reliance on commercial chips and improve the cloud margin. Zhenwu chips were serving more than 650 customers in early August 2026, while the company launched the Zhenwu M890 supernode, capable of running inference for models exceeding two trillion parameters. Downloads of the Qwen series surpassed three billion, with more than 300 thousand derivative models created, which could convert the adoption of open models into demand for Alibaba Cloud services.

How does the August 2026 share offering affect BABA shareholders?

The secondary offering in Hong Kong raised 80 billion Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to approximately 10.2 billion U.S. dollars, to finance artificial intelligence expansion. The offering price was set at 112.70 Hong Kong dollars per share at an 8.4% discount, leading to concerns about dilution of existing shareholders' stakes. On August 24, 2026, the 8.54% decline in the Hong Kong listing exceeded the estimated mechanical dilution of approximately 3.57%, indicating additional concern about returns on spending and capital allocation efficiency.

What does Alibaba's e-commerce performance indicate in Q1 of fiscal year 2027?

E-commerce Group revenue amounted to 205.9 billion yuan, up 4%, and its adjusted earnings remained nearly stable at 39.7 billion yuan. China quick commerce grew 45% to 53.3 billion yuan with support from Freshippo and Taobao Instant Commerce, alongside improving unit economics and quarter-over-quarter reductions in losses. By contrast, customer management revenue declined 7%, and management set fiscal year 2029 as the target for quick commerce to reach overall profitability.