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Stocks
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall87
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9Better than 87% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
73
21.0x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
32
-0.9%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
71
9.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
55
2.8x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
86
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
68
21.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
82
11▲3Top tier
AXTA

AXTA Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. · NYSE
Market Closed
34.16
▲ ⁦+0.41%⁩ (+0.14)
Market Cap$7.3B
Beta1.24
52w Low52w High
24.9438.61
Last Week
⁦-4.55%⁩
Last Month
⁦-9.00%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+11.02%⁩
Last Year
⁦+8.58%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$34
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$36
⁦+5%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$30–$47⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$24
⁦-30%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$24–$36⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$36.67
⁦+7.3%⁩
Current Price $34.16·Median $36.00
Low
$30.00
High
$47.00
Current price
$34.16
Average target
$36.67
Street summary

Raised Target-Price Consensus with Improved Valuation

Bullish tilt

The target-price consensus rose to 36.67 from 34.60 over 1, 7, and 30 days, an increase of 2.07 or 5.98%, while the number of analysts remained at five. The range is between 30 and 47, while the median is 36; reflecting clear dispersion in estimates even though the consensus is above the current price of 34.16.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+6.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.47
Hold
Analyst coverage
15
Buy conviction
40%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
50%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
1
5
9
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.50 → 3.47
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    KeyBanc
    Sector WeightOverweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    BMO Capital
    Market Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.96x
    4.94x39.51x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    12.66x
    3.70x29.59x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.91x
    2.62x20.92x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.1%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -0.9%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -20.1%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    34.0%
    7.6%58.9%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    9.0%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.80x
    0.22x3.72x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. operates in coating solutions through two main segments: Performance Coatings and Mobility Coatings. The Performance Coatings segment includes the refinish business for automotive body repair shops and the industrial business, while the Mobility Coatings segment serves light vehicles, commercial vehicles, and specialized transportation applications such as military vehicles, ambulances, fire trucks, and recreational vehicles. The refinish business relies on a network of approximately 95 thousand customers, 90% of which are small businesses, and the value of Axalta’s products for these customers comes from reducing labor time and increasing shop productivity.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, net sales increased 3% year over year to just under $1.35 billion, the highest quarterly level in two years. Refinish sales reached $545 million, up 6%, and industrial sales reached $327 million, up 2%, while Mobility Coatings posted record quarterly sales of $474 million, up 1%. Within Mobility Coatings, commercial vehicle sales increased 7%, while light vehicle sales declined slightly.

Net income was $89 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, down $21 million, primarily due to $31 million in additional costs associated with the proposed merger with AkzoNobel. In contrast, adjusted net income increased 10% to $153 million, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached a record $305 million with a margin of 22.7%, up 30 basis points. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 13% to $0.72, while operating cash flow was $152 million and free cash flow was $107 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The refinish business benefited in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 from easing distribution channel inventory reductions and improved price and mix; its sales increased 6% to $545 million, and management expects volumes to remain approximately stable in Q3 before growing in Q4 of fiscal year 2026.
  • Axalta achieved more than 1,900 net body shop additions during the first half of fiscal year 2026, bringing the total to approximately 2,700 shops through July 2026, compared with a typical rate of approximately 2,500 annually. The wins included approximately 800 new locations in North America associated with multi-shop operators, in addition to 80 shops within BMW’s business in Japan, supporting second-half volumes after the ramp-up is completed.
  • Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the Performance Coatings segment increased 10% to $218 million, and its margin expanded 130 basis points to 25.1%. The improvement came from positive price and mix, cost discipline, and stable refinish volumes, alongside lower operating expenses at constant currency for the eighth consecutive quarter and an approximately 2% decline in variable input costs.
  • Mobility Coatings posted record sales of $474 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin reached 18.4%. Commercial vehicle sales increased 7%, supported by volume growth across all four regions, while Axalta is benefiting from improved Class 8 truck production in North America and from the commercial transportation solutions business, which now represents approximately 50% of the commercial vehicle business and grew 5% annually.
  • Management maintained its fiscal year 2026 guidance and expects low-single-digit net sales growth in Q3, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $295 million and $305 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.70, up 4% annually. It also targets reducing net leverage to below 2 times by year-end after it reached a company-record low of 2.2 times in June 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q2 fiscal year 2026 results demonstrate Axalta’s ability to convert limited sales growth of 3% into growth of 5% in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization and 13% in adjusted diluted earnings per share, with the margin reaching 22.7%. This reflects improved mix, cost discipline, and lower interest expense, rather than reliance solely on revenue expansion.
  • +The refinish business has tangible commercial momentum, with approximately 2,700 new shops through July 2026, already exceeding the usual annual rate of approximately 2,500 shops. Management expects these wins to begin supporting volumes more clearly in Q4 of fiscal year 2026, despite the continued mid-single-digit decline in collision claims.
  • +Improved cash generation and the balance sheet support the company’s flexibility; free cash flow increased 6% to $107 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and inventory days declined by eight days year over year. Axalta also reduced total debt by $80 million during the quarter and $135 million since the beginning of the year, while interest expense declined 16% during the first half.
  • +The proposed merger with AkzoNobel offers a quantified economic opportunity, as management expects approximately $600 million in annual cost savings, with approximately 90% realized during the first three years after closing. Additional opportunities include cross-selling, technology sharing, and expanded customer access, with the transaction targeted to close in late 2026 or early 2027, subject to voting and regulatory approvals.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $34.60, within a relatively wide range of $30 to $39, while the upper end is close to the 52-week range high of $38.61, compared with a low of $24.937. The analyst consensus is Neutral, and no confirmed price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the valuation assessment relies more heavily on the breadth of the target range and Axalta’s ability to sustain a 22.7% margin and realize the AkzoNobel merger savings, balanced against demand, raw material, and regulatory execution risks.

HoldAnalyst target: $34.6(+1.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were Axalta’s key results in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

Net sales reached just under $1.35 billion, up 3% year over year, marking the highest quarterly performance in two years. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached a record $305 million with a margin of 22.7%, while adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 13% to $0.72. Net income was $89 million, down $21 million, due to $31 million in additional costs associated with the proposed merger with AkzoNobel. The company also generated $152 million in operating cash flow and $107 million in free cash flow.

Why is the refinish business important to AXTA stock?

The refinish business represents nearly half of Axalta and generated sales of $545 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, up 6%. The company serves approximately 95 thousand customers in this business, 90% of which are small businesses that benefit from products that improve work speed and shop efficiency. Axalta added approximately 2,700 net shops through July 2026, including locations associated with multi-shop operators in North America and 80 shops within BMW’s business in Japan. Management expects volumes to remain approximately stable in Q3 and then increase in Q4 of fiscal year 2026 as these wins begin to affect results.

What is the state of Axalta’s debt and cash flows?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −A large portion of Axalta’s business depends on automotive refinish, a business that represents nearly half of the company and is directly affected by the number of collision claims. Management expects claims to continue declining at mid-single-digit rates during the second half of fiscal year 2026, and it also noted that higher repair costs are increasing total-loss cases and that affordability pressures are prompting some consumers not to file claims.
  • −Industrial demand in North America remains weak, and global industrial business volumes declined approximately 1% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 despite a 2% increase in sales. The company’s exposure in the region is tied to building products, so interest rates, weak consumer confidence, and residential construction activity are pressuring volumes, while growth came primarily from Europe and Asia.
  • −Mobility Coatings faces weakness in light vehicles, as sales in this business declined slightly in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 amid lower volumes in several regions, particularly among the company’s customers in North America and China. Management estimated that light vehicle markets declined approximately 1% to 3%, while second-half improvement depends on new business wins in Europe and Latin America.
  • −Margins in the second half of fiscal year 2026 face raw material pressure after cost inflation was in the low-single digits in Q2. Management expects raw material inflation to represent a mid-single-digit headwind for the full year, with solvents up approximately 15% to 20% and monomers up by high-single digits, with a greater portion of the impact expected in Q3 and Q4.
  • −Management maintained its fiscal year 2026 guidance without raising it despite the record results, due to uncertainty related to Iran, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It also expects the positive foreign exchange impact to diminish in the second half, making expected low-single-digit revenue growth more dependent on price, mix, and customer wins.
  • −The proposed merger with AkzoNobel involves execution and regulatory risks; Axalta incurred $31 million in additional transaction-related costs in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, contributing to a $21 million decline in net income. Realizing the expected annual cost savings of $600 million depends on completing the transaction in late 2026 or early 2027 and then executing the integration according to the targeted schedule.

Axalta ended June 2026 with net leverage of 2.2 times, the lowest level in the company’s history, and targets exiting fiscal year 2026 below 2 times. The company reduced total debt by $80 million during Q2 and $135 million since the beginning of the year, while interest expense declined 16% during the first half. Free cash flow improved 6% to $107 million in the quarter, despite including transaction-related charges. The cash conversion cycle also improved by approximately 10%, and inventory days declined by eight days year over year.

What does the proposed merger with AkzoNobel mean for AXTA shareholders?

Axalta is targeting the closing of a proposed merger of equals with AkzoNobel in late 2026 or early 2027, with regulatory approval processes continuing according to the July 28, 2026 call. Management expects approximately $600 million in annual cost savings, with approximately 90% realized during the first three years after closing. It also sees opportunities for cross-selling, technology sharing, and expanded customer access, particularly in the economy segment of the refinish market, where AkzoNobel has a strong presence. In contrast, additional transaction-related costs reached $31 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and realizing the savings remains dependent on completing the transaction and successfully executing the integration.

What is Axalta’s guidance for Q3 and fiscal year 2026?

Management maintained its fiscal year 2026 guidance for net sales, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, adjusted earnings per share, and free cash flow. For Q3 of fiscal year 2026, it expects low-single-digit net sales growth and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $295 million and $305 million. It also expects adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.70, up 4% year over year. Maintaining the guidance reflects caution regarding Iran, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, in addition to raw material inflation and the diminishing positive foreign exchange impact in the second half.

What are the main growth drivers for Axalta’s Mobility Coatings?

The Mobility Coatings segment posted record sales of $474 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, up 1%, and achieved an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin of 18.4%. Commercial vehicle sales increased 7% due to volume growth across all four regions and improved Class 8 truck production in North America. The commercial transportation solutions business, which includes applications such as military vehicles, ambulances, fire trucks, and recreational vehicles, now represents approximately 50% of the commercial vehicle business and grew 5% annually. Light vehicle sales declined slightly, but management expects second-half volume support from new business wins in Europe and Latin America.