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Stocks
American Express Company
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall73
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 6/9Better than 73% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
66
18.9x▼17.6xTop tier
▸
Growth
42
9.4%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
98
——Top tier
▸
Safety
17
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
66
1.14%▼2.15%Top tier
▸
Momentum
54
5.3%▲2.3%Around median
▸
Sentiment
71
21▲3Top tier
AXP

AXP American Express Company

American Express Company · NYSE
Market Closed
311.56
▲ ⁦+0.13%⁩ (+0.39)
Market Cap$210.4B
Beta1.05
52w Low52w High
290.97387.49
Last Week
⁦-2.85%⁩
Last Month
⁦-9.03%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-7.10%⁩
Last Year
⁦-4.23%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$312
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$384
⁦+23%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$315–$415⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$215
⁦-31%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.0⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$215–$384⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$378.09
⁦+21.4%⁩
Current Price $311.56·Median $384.00
Low
$315.00
High
$415.00
Current price
$311.56
Average target
$378.09
Street summary

American Express (AXP) Price Target Revision Analysis

The analyst outlook for American Express stock has seen a slight decline in expectations over the past thirty days, with the average price target falling by 0.98% to $378.09. Despite the stabilization of expectations in the last seven days, the price gap between the high estimate ($415) and the low estimate ($315) reflects a divergence in the valuation of the stock's fair value compared to its current price of $338.86.

As of 2026-08-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.60
Buy
Analyst coverage
30
Buy conviction
47%
Mixed
Target dispersion
32%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time30 analysts rating
5
9
15
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.30 → 3.60
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    UBS
    Neutral
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-07-13
    Piper Sandler
    OverweightNeutral
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-13
    Jefferies
    HoldBuy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    18.91x
    3.11x24.86x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    16.56x
    2.72x21.78x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.07x
    3.03x24.25x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.2%
    -17.7%19.3%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.4%
    -36.8%103.3%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    16.1%
    -99.6%194.1%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    84.4%
    23.3%98.3%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    21.1%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.55x
    0.25x7.21x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.1%
    0.6%9.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    21.1%
    9.8%98.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-24 data

Company Overview

American Express Company operates through an integrated membership and payments model that connects cardholders with merchants, generating revenue from card fees, net interest income on balances, spending processed through its network, and banking products. The company focuses on customers with high creditworthiness and fee-based products, particularly Platinum and Gold, and supports membership with travel, dining, and entertainment benefits such as airport lounges, hotel networks, Resy, and Tock; in Q2 fiscal 2026, fee-based products accounted for 75% of new accounts.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue was $21.6 billion, net income was $3.1 billion, and earnings per share were $4.53, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 14.4%. Management reported that revenue grew 10%, earnings per share 11%, and pretax income 15% year over year, while net income grew 8% due to discrete tax items in the comparison period. In terms of revenue mix, net card fees reached a record level and grew 15.4%, while net interest income increased 11%.

Billed business in Q2 fiscal 2026 reached currency-adjusted growth of 9.4%, driven by 9% growth in goods and services, 10% in travel and entertainment, 13% in retail, and 10% in restaurants. U.S. consumer spending grew 11%, and international spending grew 12% on a currency-adjusted basis, while commercial spending grew 5%. The company added 3 million new cards, balances increased 9%, and credit quality remained strong, with provision expense of $1.1 billion that included a $191 million reserve release.

What's Driving the Stock

  • American Express raised its fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance to 10% after achieving 11% revenue growth and 14% earnings-per-share growth in the first half, but maintained earnings-per-share guidance of $17.30 to $17.90 to reinvest the outperformance in customer acquisition, technology, and the proposed TheFork acquisition.
  • The U.S. Platinum refresh drove a 600-basis-point acceleration across the consumer Platinum portfolio compared with what management discussed in Q1 fiscal 2026, making the portfolio the fastest-growing within the U.S. consumer business. Customer retention also remained high despite the $200 increase in the Platinum fee, and management expects card fee growth to accelerate in Q3 fiscal 2026 and exit the year at an upper-teens rate.
  • Currency-adjusted billed business increased 9.4% in Q2 fiscal 2026, with global travel bookings through American Express growing 22% and airline and restaurant spending each growing 10%. Spending at Resy restaurants grew at twice the rate of overall restaurant spending, supporting the strategy of integrating payments with travel and restaurant reservations.
  • 65% of new consumer accounts in the first half of fiscal 2026 came from Millennials and Gen Z, and the figure reached approximately 70% of new consumer Platinum accounts outside the United States. International Platinum card spending also grew 20% on a currency-adjusted basis during fiscal 2026, following product refreshes in approximately 80% of the countries where the card has been issued since 2023.
  • On August 19, 2026, the company added a multiyear partnership with St Andrews Links as its official payments partner, providing Platinum and Centurion cardholders an exclusive application process for packages that include the Old Course. This partnership complements the NFL, Fanatics, and Accor partnerships and aims to further differentiate travel and entertainment benefits for high-spending customers.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The buying case is based on balanced growth in Q2 fiscal 2026: revenue at 10%, currency-adjusted billed business at 9.4%, card fees at 15.4%, and net interest income at 11%, alongside an increase in fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance to 10%.
  • +The premium product strategy demonstrates strength in acquisition and retention; the company added 3 million cards during the quarter, 75% of new accounts were fee-based, and Platinum card retention rates remained stable year over year after the $200 fee increase.
  • +Credit quality supports returns on capital, as delinquency rates have remained between 1.2% and 1.3% for more than three years, delinquency and write-off rates remained below 2019 levels, and return on equity was 36% in Q2 fiscal 2026.
  • +The international network provides additional room for growth, with international spending increasing 12% on a currency-adjusted basis, four of the five largest countries growing at double-digit rates, and international Platinum spending increasing 20% during fiscal 2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst target is $378.09, compared with a target range of $315 to $415 and a Neutral consensus; the average is approximately 2.4% below the 52-week range high of $387.49, while the highest target exceeds that high. The wide target range and the 52-week range of $290.97–$387.49 reflect the market’s balancing of revenue and fee growth and credit quality on one hand against reinvestment pressure, co-brand portfolio sales, and the lack of an increase in earnings-per-share guidance on the other.

HoldAnalyst target: $378.09(+21.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were AXP’s key results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

American Express reported revenue of $21.6 billion and net income of $3.1 billion in Q2 fiscal 2026. Earnings per share were $4.53, with revenue growing 10% and earnings per share 11% year over year. Pretax income increased 15%, while net income grew 8% due to discrete tax items in the comparison period. The net income margin calculated from EDGAR figures was also approximately 14.4%.

What is American Express’s guidance for fiscal 2026?

Management raised its fiscal 2026 revenue growth forecast to 10% following better-than-expected first-half performance. It maintained earnings-per-share guidance of $17.30 to $17.90 because it chose to invest the outperformance in customer acquisition, technology, and the proposed TheFork acquisition. The company expects operating expenses to grow at a mid-single-digit rate and marketing to grow approximately 10% in the second half. It also expects Card Member engagement costs as a percentage of revenue to range between 44% and 45% for fiscal 2026.

Why is the Platinum refresh important to AXP’s growth?

The Platinum portfolio became the fastest-growing portfolio in the U.S. consumer business, and management linked it to a 600-basis-point acceleration across the portfolio compared with what it discussed in Q1 fiscal 2026. Customer retention remained stable year over year after the $200 fee increase, with contributions from new accounts, increased spending by existing customers, and upgrades. Management expects card fee growth to accelerate in Q3 fiscal 2026 and end the year at an upper-teens rate. Outside the United States, Platinum spending grew 20% on a currency-adjusted basis during fiscal 2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
The transfer of the two small-business co-brand card portfolios to new issuers will create measurable operating pressure; beginning in Q4 fiscal 2026, management expects an impact of approximately one percentage point on spending growth, 2.5 percentage points on net interest income growth, and approximately one percentage point on total revenue growth until the year-over-year comparison is completed, despite expecting minimal impact on pretax income.
  • −Card Member engagement costs increased due to strong spending and the Platinum refresh, leading management to raise its forecast for these costs as a percentage of revenue in fiscal 2026 to a range of 44%–45%. It also expects marketing growth of approximately 10% in the second half of fiscal 2026, limiting the conversion of incremental revenue growth into immediate earnings.
  • −The company maintained fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share guidance at $17.30–$17.90 despite raising revenue growth guidance to 10%, because additional spending will be directed toward customer acquisition, technology, and transaction and integration costs related to the proposed TheFork acquisition. This means that improved revenue is not matched by a similar increase in fiscal 2026 earnings expectations.
  • −Management expects an apparent slowdown in spending growth with the transfer of the small-business co-brand portfolios, while growth in Member engagement costs will decline as the company begins to lap the impact of the Platinum refresh in Q4 fiscal 2026. This makes the sustainability of underlying momentum less clear when separating the effects of the product refresh and portfolio sales.
  • −The analyst consensus on AXP is Neutral rather than Buy, with a wide target range of $315 to $415. This divergence indicates meaningful disagreement over the value of investment-driven growth and the company’s ability to sustain revenue and earnings expansion.
  • −Net insider sales totaled $5.4 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 18, 2026, with two sales and no purchases recorded. This remains a weak standalone signal because insider sales may be prearranged, and the available information provides no evidence to the contrary.
  • What did American Express’s credit quality look like in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Delinquency and write-off rates remained below 2019 levels, and the delinquency rate stayed between 1.2% and 1.3% for more than three years. Provision expense was $1.1 billion and included a $191 million reserve release resulting from improved portfolio performance. Balances increased 9% on a currency-adjusted basis, in line with billed business growth. The CCAR stress test results showed the lowest projected credit card loss rate among all banks and a pretax return on equity of 3.8% over nine quarters under the severely adverse scenario.

    What is the impact of selling the small-business co-brand card portfolios on AXP?

    The transfer of one of the two portfolios was completed in April 2026, and the transfer of the second portfolio was expected in Q3 fiscal 2026. Beginning in Q4 fiscal 2026, management expects pressure of approximately one percentage point on spending growth and 2.5 percentage points on net interest income growth. The expected impact on total revenue growth is approximately one percentage point until the year-over-year comparison is completed. However, management said the impact on pretax income would be minimal and that these effects are included in the annual guidance.

    How is American Express expanding travel and dining benefits for its cardholders?

    Global travel bookings through American Express increased 22% in Q2 fiscal 2026, while travel and entertainment spending grew 10%. The company uses Resy and Tock within its dining offering, and the proposed TheFork acquisition would add approximately 50 thousand restaurants in 11 European countries if the transaction is completed. On August 19, 2026, it announced a multiyear partnership with St Andrews Links that gives Platinum and Centurion cardholders an exclusive application process for packages that include the Old Course. It also added an integration that allows Membership Rewards points to be redeemed directly within Apple Pay and a global partnership with Accor’s loyalty and booking platform.