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AeroVironment, Inc.
AVAV

AVAV AeroVironment, Inc.

AeroVironment, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
146.71
▼ ⁦-0.24%⁩ (-0.35)
Market Cap$7.4B
Beta1.41
52w Low52w High
135.20417.86
Last Week
⁦+1.76%⁩
Last Month
⁦-14.26%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-19.51%⁩
Last Year
⁦-38.83%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall20
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketSucker StockF 2/9SafeBetter than 20% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
25
—17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
78
84.4%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
24
-4.6%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
55
—2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
52
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
10
-28.5%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
41
10▲3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$147
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$220
⁦+50%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$170–$250⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$216.73
⁦+47.7%⁩
Current Price $146.71·Median $220.00
Low
$170.00
High
$250.00
Current price
$146.71
Average target
$216.73
Street summary

AVAV target estimates remain stable amid limited valuation dispersion

The consensus price target remained at $216.73, up slightly by $0.37, or 0.17%, over the last 7 and 30 days, with no change in the number of analysts, which remained at one. The range is between $170 and $250, with a median of $220, reflecting a clear dispersion in levels despite the limited coverage base. Compared with the current price of $146.71, the data do not indicate a recent cut to the targets, but statistical confidence in the consensus is limited because only one analyst is participating.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.15
Buy
Analyst coverage
20
Buy conviction
85%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
55%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time20 analysts rating
6
11
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.16 → 4.15
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    Citigroup
    Market Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-28
    KeyBanc
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    34.08x
    4.57x36.58x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    -0.3%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    84.4%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -534.4%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    26.5%
    8.6%54.6%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    -4.6%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.86
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-09-09 data

Company Overview

AeroVironment develops and produces defense solutions that include multi-mission reconnaissance systems, precision-strike systems, counter-unmanned aircraft systems, and space and directed-energy technologies. The company generates revenue from selling platforms such as P550, JUMP 20, Puma, Switchblade, Titan, and LOCUST, in addition to service contracts and government programs; in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the Autonomous Systems segment represented $346 million, or 72% of revenue, while the Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment contributed approximately $134.5 million, or 28%.

Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 was approximately $480.5 million, and gross profit was $124.6 million, equivalent to a GAAP gross margin of approximately 25.9%. The company reported a net loss of $5.1 million and earnings per share of negative $0.10, while adjusted gross margin was 30%, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $53 million at a margin of 11%, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.59 compared with $0.32 in the corresponding period.

The segment comparison reveals a clear divergence within the portfolio: Autonomous Systems revenue increased 21% year over year, and Unmanned Aircraft Systems revenue surged 71% to $120 million, but Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment revenue declined 21% to approximately $134 million due to the termination of the SCAR contract and other government programs. For fiscal 2026, revenue totaled $2.0 billion and gross profit was $500.6 million, compared with a net loss of $265.1 million and negative earnings per share of $5.40.

What's Driving the Stock

  • AeroVironment ended the first quarter of fiscal 2027 with bookings of $683 million and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4 times, while funded backlog reached a record $1.5 billion, up 37% year over year, and total funded and unfunded backlog was approximately $2.8 billion.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The $464.8 million U.S. Army contract for the E-HEL program represents a turning point for LOCUST, as the company described it as the first production contract for directed-energy systems in U.S. Army history, followed by the first direct international order for the system. LOCUST is designed to intercept drone attacks at a cost of less than $10 per shot, compared with missiles that may cost between $1 million and $10 million per interception, according to management.
  • Counter-unmanned aircraft opportunities expanded with the sole-source Titan MS contract, which has a $500 million ceiling for the Domestic Shield program and includes an initial $80 million order under the Golden Dome initiative. The company is also working to accelerate Freedom Eagle-1 with additional funding support and expects to deliver between 60 and 80 systems over a period of 12 to 18 months.
  • P550 secured a $117 million contract under the U.S. Army's Long Range Reconnaissance program, which the company estimates has a long-term value of approximately $1 billion, and it expects to deliver most of the contract value during fiscal 2027. In addition, the company won a $30 million contract to supply Puma AE and Puma LE to Germany's LARUS program and a $51 million contract to supply Switchblade 600.
  • On September 9, 2026, management reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 guidance: revenue between $2.125 billion and $2.225 billion, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $305 million and $325 million, and adjusted earnings per share between $3.02 and $3.34. Revenue visibility to the midpoint of guidance is 86%, but the expected distribution is weighted toward the second half, with 45% in the first half and 55% in the second half.
  • U.S. tariffs announced in August 2026 on imported drones and their components may provide the company with a competitive advantage; management stated that more than 98% of AeroVironment's supply base is domestic and that the remainder comes from allies such as Canada, Germany, and Israel. Accordingly, management did not incorporate any negative tariff impact into its fiscal 2027 guidance and saw the potential for a positive impact.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The $1.5 billion funded backlog, $2.8 billion total funded and unfunded backlog, and 86% revenue visibility to the midpoint of fiscal 2027 guidance provide a relatively strong contractual foundation for executing the annual plan.
    • +Growth opportunities are distributed across specific platforms with large contracts, including E-HEL at $464.8 million, P550 at $117 million, Switchblade 600 at $51 million, and the Titan MS contract with a $500 million ceiling and an initial $80 million order, reducing the growth story's reliance on a single product.
    • +Unmanned Aircraft Systems revenue increased 71% year over year to $120 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, supported by P550, JUMP 20-X, and Puma, while the Autonomous Systems segment achieved an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin of 18%.
    • +The company is investing in production-capacity expansion through Albuquerque, Huntsville, the 200,000-square-foot Salt Lake City facility, and a $100 million long-term investment in Southern California. These expansions are directly linked to increasing production of LOCUST, Freedom Eagle-1, Switchblade, and other platforms facing rising demand.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The timing of a significant portion of demand depends on the approval of U.S. government budgets, and management described the timing of the fiscal 2027 government budget's approval as an uncertainty whose risks could increase if the delay persists, although it did not expect a material impact on fiscal 2027 guidance during the September 9, 2026 call.
    • −Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment revenue declined 21% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and the segment recorded an adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $9 million. The decline followed the loss of $32 million in SCAR contract revenue recorded in the corresponding period, along with the discontinuation of other government programs.
    • −Adjusted services gross margin fell to 8% in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 from 13% in the corresponding period, due to lower volumes, program losses, and delayed contract awards that weakened fixed-cost absorption. Adjusted selling, general, and administrative expenses also increased to $85 million, or 18% of revenue, from $65 million and 14%, and included a nonrecurring bad-debt provision of $4.2 million.
    • −Converting LOCUST, Freedom Eagle-1, Red Dragon, and other contracts into large-scale revenue requires increasing production, securing long-lead-time components, and expanding a supplier base that remains relatively new in directed energy. Execution and supply-chain risks therefore remain, even with management's assurance that it can meet demand.
    • −AeroVironment expects negative free cash flow in fiscal 2027, after recording negative free cash flow of $36 million in the first quarter, due to targeted capital expenditures equal to 12% to 14% of revenue. Debt totaled $747.5 million compared with $675 million in cash and investments, with net leverage of 1.6 times adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
    • −The stock's 52-week range extends from $135.20 to $417.86, while the average analyst price target is $216.73, approximately 48% below the top of the range, reflecting clear caution relative to the previous valuation peak. No positive price-to-earnings multiple is available as a reference, given the $265.1 million net loss in fiscal 2026 and negative earnings per share of $0.10 in the first quarter of fiscal 2027.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $216.73 and a wide range between $170 and $250; the average is above the 52-week low of $135.20 but approximately 48% below the high of $417.86. No positive price-to-earnings multiple is available due to accounting losses, so the valuation depends more heavily on backlog execution, improving margins in the Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment, and converting capital expenditures into profitable growth, while the wide range of analyst targets remains evidence of differing assessments of execution risk.

    BuyAnalyst target: $216.73(+47.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-11; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What are AeroVironment's most important growth drivers in fiscal 2027?

    The leading drivers are LOCUST, Titan, P550, Switchblade, and the Freedom Eagle-1 system. LOCUST secured a $464.8 million E-HEL contract, while P550 won a $117 million contract and Titan MS received a contract with a $500 million ceiling and an initial $80 million order. These contracts were reflected in bookings of $683 million and funded backlog of $1.5 billion at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2027.

    Was AeroVironment profitable in the first quarter of fiscal 2027?

    Under GAAP, the company reported a net loss of $5.1 million and negative earnings per share of $0.10 on revenue of $480.5 million. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share were $0.59, up from $0.32 in the corresponding period, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $53 million at a margin of 11%. Gross profit according to EDGAR data was approximately $124.6 million, equivalent to a margin of approximately 25.9%.

    How important is the LOCUST system to the AVAV investment case?

    LOCUST is a counter-unmanned aircraft laser system with a cost of less than $10 per shot, according to management, and is designed to address the economic disparity between low-cost drones and expensive interceptor missiles. In August 2026, the company secured a $464.8 million U.S. Army E-HEL contract and then announced the first direct international order for the system. Management expects fixed-price contracts and higher volumes to support improved profitability for LOCUST and the Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment during the second half of fiscal 2027 and beyond.

    How large is AeroVironment's backlog, and what does it indicate?

    Funded backlog reached $1.5 billion at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2027, up 37% year over year, while unfunded backlog was $1.4 billion. The total reached slightly more than $2.8 billion and did not include remaining ceilings under large IDIQ contracts such as the $990 million Switchblade contract and the $500 million Titan contract. The company stated that this base provides visibility equal to 86% of the revenue needed to reach the midpoint of fiscal 2027 guidance.

    Why does AeroVironment expect negative free cash flow in fiscal 2027?

    The company recorded positive operating cash flow of $13 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, but free cash flow was negative $36 million due to capital investments. Management is targeting capital expenditures equal to 12% to 14% of revenue to increase production capacity for LOCUST, Switchblade, Freedom Eagle-1, and other platforms. The projects include a $100 million investment in Southern California, a 200,000-square-foot facility in Salt Lake City, and expanded facilities in Albuquerque and Huntsville.

    What are the main risks that could prevent AeroVironment from achieving its fiscal 2027 guidance?

    The main risks are delays in approving the U.S. defense budget, the difficulty of rapidly increasing production, and the need for components with long lead times. Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment revenue also declined 21% in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and the segment recorded an adjusted loss of $9 million, while services margin fell to 8%. Nevertheless, on September 9, 2026, management maintained its guidance for revenue between $2.125 billion and $2.225 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $305 million and $325 million.