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Stocks
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.
AVAH

AVAH Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
14.08
▲ ⁦+1.59%⁩ (+0.22)
Market Cap$3.1B
Beta1.93
52w Low52w High
5.9314.54
Last Week
⁦+6.67%⁩
Last Month
⁦+48.84%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+111.09%⁩
Last Year
⁦+79.59%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall78
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 6/9Grey zoneBetter than 78% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
67
10.7x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
81
19.5%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
58
27.1%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
42
4.4x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
38
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
95
20.9%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
36
7▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$14
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$15
⁦+7%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$11–$16⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$1.14
⁦-92%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦13.0⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$1.14–$15⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$14.38
⁦+2.1%⁩
Current Price $14.08·Median $15.00
Low
$11.00
High
$16.00
Current price
$14.08
Average target
$14.38
Street summary

Clear Increase in Consensus Price Target

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from 10.50 to 14.38, an increase of 3.88 or 36.95%, while the number of analysts remained at three. There was no change over the last day or seven days, indicating that the estimate stabilized after the latest revision. The target range is between 11 and 16, while the median is 15 compared with a current price of 13.58, reflecting moderate optimism with notable variation among analysts.

As of 2026-09-04
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+37.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.91
Buy
Analyst coverage
11
Buy conviction
73%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
36%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time11 analysts rating
2
6
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.67 → 3.91
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-28
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-14
    UBS
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.75x
    3.94x44.30x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    19.92x
    4.64x37.16x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    15.14x
    3.77x30.13x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    5.4%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    19.5%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    1355.6%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    32.2%
    12.8%90.7%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    27.1%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.39x
    0.60x5.10x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.01
    -38.7417.53
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-13 data

Company Overview

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. provides home- and community-based healthcare services through three operating segments: Private Duty Services, Home Health & Hospice, and Medical Solutions. Private Duty Services represents approximately 83% of revenue, and the company generates income from care hours reimbursed by government programs and managed payers, home health episodes, and Medical Solutions patients served; in Q2 FY2026, revenue per hour in Private Duty Services was $44.62, revenue per Medicare episode was approximately $3.2 thousand, and revenue per unique patient in Medical Solutions was approximately $500.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue increased 13.7% year over year to $670.5 million, gross profit was $218.5 million at a 32.6% margin, while net income reached $40.3 million and earnings per share were $0.18. Compared with Q2 FY2025, gross profit increased from $210.8 million, but its margin declined from approximately 35.8% to 32.6%, while net income increased from $27.0 million.

Each operating segment grew in Q2 FY2026: Home Health & Hospice revenue increased 14.8% to approximately $69 million, Private Duty Services increased 14.0%, and Medical Solutions grew 9.4% to $47.5 million. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $95.4 million, up 8%, a rate below revenue growth, while Home Health & Hospice recorded a gross margin of 53.9% and Medical Solutions recorded 45.1%. Following the quarter’s results, management raised its FY2026 outlook to revenue exceeding $2.68 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization exceeding $365 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Aveanna raised its FY2026 outlook to revenue exceeding $2.68 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization exceeding $365 million, and management stated on August 13, 2026, that the latest increase reflects core business performance rather than an additional contribution from the Family First Homecare acquisition.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The company expanded its preferred payer network in Private Duty Services to 37 agreements during Q2 FY2026 after signing three agreements, and these payers’ share of managed care organization volumes increased to 64% from 60% at the end of Q1 FY2026. Management expects to exceed its FY2026 target of 38 agreements and end the year with covered volumes slightly above the mid-60% range.
  • The episode-based mix in the Home Health segment was approximately 81% during Q2 FY2026, with total episodes growing 18.5% to 14.7 thousand episodes and admissions reaching 10.5 thousand cases. The company also reached its annual target of 50 preferred payers in this segment and raised its long-term organic growth range from 5%–7% to 8%–10%.
  • The California FY2027 budget included a significant increase in reimbursement for pediatric private duty nursing, effective January 1, 2027, after the state’s last increase on July 1, 2018. Aveanna plans to begin passing through wage increases around October 2026 with the goal of improving nurse recruitment and hour-coverage rates before the new reimbursement takes effect.
  • Aveanna closed the Family First Homecare acquisition in early June 2026 and funded it, along with closing costs, entirely from available cash, and expects to complete most integration work by late Q4 FY2026. The company added that the acquisition strengthened its presence in Florida and service areas in Iowa and South Dakota, while it is targeting subsequent acquisition opportunities more heavily in home health.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +Q2 FY2026 delivered double-digit revenue growth of 13.7%, and net income increased to $40.3 million from $27.0 million in Q2 FY2025, while the results also exceeded earnings and revenue estimates according to the August 13, 2026, report.
    • +The preferred payer model gives the company a tangible path to convert demand into actual volumes; its share reached 64% of managed care organization volumes in Private Duty Services, while 90%–95% of new admissions in this segment during the weeks preceding the call were associated with preferred payers.
    • +Home Health shows strong momentum, with episode growth of 18.5%, a gross margin of 53.9%, and an episode-based mix of 81% in Q2 FY2026. This supports raising the segment’s estimated long-term organic growth to 8%–10%, compared with the previous range of 5%–7%.
    • +Financial flexibility improved with operating cash flow of $85.3 million and free cash flow of $75.4 million during the first half of FY2026, in addition to liquidity of approximately $433 million at the end of Q2. The term loan repricing also reduced the interest rate by 75 basis points, which is expected to save approximately $10 million annually in interest expense.
    • +Management raised the long-term organic growth rate for Private Duty Services to 5%–6% and for Home Health & Hospice to 8%–10%, while maintaining Medical Solutions growth at 8%–10%. Management believes the combination of these rates and disciplined acquisitions can support double-digit annual revenue growth.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Approximately 83% of Aveanna’s revenue is concentrated in Private Duty Services, so any weakness in reimbursement, staffing, or care volumes in this segment could have a disproportionate impact on the group’s results despite growth across all three segments in Q2 FY2026.
    • −Converting strong demand into revenue depends on caregiver availability and government reimbursement rates and payer agreements; management described the labor market as the primary challenge, while hour-coverage rates in California declined by approximately 30% over previous years. The company will begin passing through wage increases before the new California reimbursement takes effect on January 1, 2027, creating a period in which it bears higher costs before receiving the improved rate.
    • −Consolidated gross margin declined from approximately 35.8% in Q2 FY2025 to 32.6% in Q2 FY2026, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew only 8% compared with revenue growth of 13.7%. Management says reimbursement increases will be passed through to caregiver wages, that the Private Duty Services margin will remain near 28%–29%, and that it does not expect the adjusted earnings margin to rise materially above the 14%–15% range.
    • −The company still had approximately $1.48 billion of variable-rate debt at the end of Q2 FY2026, a large figure relative to a market capitalization of $2.9 billion, despite $1.4 billion of it being covered by interest-rate caps. Leverage also temporarily increased following the Family First Homecare acquisition, and management is targeting a reduction to below three times during FY2027.
    • −There is meaningful divergence in analyst estimates; the average target of $14.38 is near the upper end of the 52-week range of $14, but targets extend from $11 to $16. This spread, together with the absence of a benchmark earnings multiple in the data, limits the strength of a conclusion based solely on the average target and reflects differing assessments of the sustainability of growth and margins.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on AVAH is “Buy,” with an average price target of $14.38 and a wide range of $11 to $16. The average target is only approximately 2.7% above the top of the 52-week range of $14, while the highest target exceeds that level by approximately 14.3% and the lowest target is approximately 21.4% below it, reflecting meaningful divergence in value estimates. The data does not provide an earnings multiple that could be used as an additional anchor, so the available valuation framework depends primarily on analyst targets relative to the 52-week range and on the company’s ability to execute its FY2026 outlook while protecting margins.

    BuyAnalyst target: $14.38(+2.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving Aveanna’s growth in FY2026?

    Q2 FY2026 revenue increased 13.7% to $670.5 million, with Private Duty Services growing 14.0%, Home Health & Hospice 14.8%, and Medical Solutions 9.4%. Management attributes this performance to improved reimbursement rates, higher volumes, preferred payer agreements, and operational efficiency. Following the August 13, 2026, results, the company raised its outlook to revenue exceeding $2.68 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization exceeding $365 million.

    Why is the California reimbursement increase important for AVAH stock?

    The California FY2027 budget included a significant investment in pediatric private duty nursing rates beginning January 1, 2027, after the state’s last increase on July 1, 2018. Management said hour-coverage rates in California had fallen by approximately 30% over previous years because reimbursement and wages lagged the market. Aveanna plans to pass through wage increases around October 2026, aiming to increase hours worked by existing caregivers, recruit new nurses, and help discharge eligible patients from hospitals to their homes.

    How do preferred payer agreements affect Aveanna’s results?

    The number of preferred payer agreements in Private Duty Services reached 37 in Q2 FY2026 and represented 64% of managed care organization volumes, compared with 60% at the end of Q1. In Home Health, the company achieved its target of 50 preferred payers, and the episode-based mix reached 81%. These agreements allow caregiver capacity to be directed toward payers offering better rates, but the company passes a significant portion of the improvement through to wages rather than targeting a large expansion in the margin percentage.

    What is the status of Aveanna’s debt and cash flows?

    Variable-rate debt was approximately $1.48 billion at the end of Q2 FY2026, but $1.4 billion of it was protected by interest-rate caps. The company reduced the term loan interest rate by 75 basis points and expects annual savings of approximately $10 million. During the first half of FY2026, it generated $85.3 million in operating cash flow and $75.4 million in free cash flow, while liquidity was approximately $433 million.

    What did the Family First Homecare acquisition add to Aveanna?

    Aveanna closed the acquisition of Family First Homecare in early June 2026 and funded it, along with closing costs, entirely from available cash. Management said on the August 13, 2026, call that the integration was progressing in line with or better than expectations and that the acquired company strengthened the business in Florida and service areas in Iowa and South Dakota. Aveanna expects to complete most integration work, including back-office transitions and the electronic medical records system, by late Q4 FY2026.

    What are the key investment risks for AVAH after Q2 FY2026?

    Approximately 83% of revenue comes from Private Duty Services, concentrating exposure to reimbursement rates and the availability of nurses and caregivers. Consolidated gross margin also declined to 32.6% from approximately 35.8% in Q2 FY2025, while management emphasizes that rate improvements will be partially passed through to wages. The $1.48 billion of variable-rate debt and the divergence in analyst targets between $11 and $16 add two further layers of financial and valuation risk.

  • −Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 21, 2026, recorded net sales of $773.1 million, with 40 sales and no purchases. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data does not clarify whether these transactions were planned or what motivated them.