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Stocks
Avista Corporation
AVA

AVA Avista Corporation

Avista Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
36.79
▼ ⁦-0.92%⁩ (-0.34)
Market Cap$3.1B
Beta0.24
52w Low52w High
35.5043.50
Last Week
⁦-1.23%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.01%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-12.09%⁩
Last Year
⁦+0.68%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall32
Weak — below market medianValue TrapF 4/9DistressBetter than 32% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
64
13.3x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
45
-1.8%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
27
5.5%▲4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
36
4.9x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
48
5.23%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
45
5.1%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
43
5▲3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$37
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$38
⁦+3%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$37–$39⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$38.00
⁦+3.3%⁩
Current Price $36.79·Median $38.00
Low
$37.00
High
$39.00
Current price
$36.79
Average target
$38.00
Street summary

Target Stability with a Narrow Analyst Range

The consensus price target has not changed over the last 30 days, remaining at 38 versus a current price of 37.61, indicating limited upside of approximately 1%. The range is between 37 and 39, reflecting a narrow spread; the lower bound is slightly below the current price, while the upper bound is modestly above it. The number of analysts also increased from one to two in the 2026-09-07 snapshot, with no change in the average target.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.86
Hold
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
14%
Target dispersion
5%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
1
5
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.86 → 2.86
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-06-15
    Bank of America Securities
    Underperform
  • = Reiterate2026-04-21
    Wells Fargo
    —· $39.00
  • = Reiterate2026-04-15
    Barclays
    —· $41.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    13.28x
    4.50x36.01x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    13.76x
    4.35x34.77x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.96x
    3.07x24.54x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -3.4%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -1.8%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    24.8%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    13.1%
    9.8%69.4%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    5.5%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.87x
    1.28x10.25x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    5.2%
    1.4%6.1%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    70.9%
    35.0%95.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.85
    0.573.91
    Weak
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-03 data

Company Overview

Avista Corporation is a utility company serving 429 thousand electric customers and 386 thousand natural gas customers. Its core operations consist of transmitting and distributing energy and providing service within its franchise territories, particularly in Washington. Returns from these operations are tied to regulatory decisions and the recovery of costs for long-lived assets, while the company also owns unregulated investments through EIP that can generate periodic gains or losses.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, Avista reported revenue of $413.0 million, net income of $35.0 million, and earnings per share of $0.43, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 8.5%. Compared with Q1 fiscal 2026, revenue declined from $570.0 million and net income fell from $92.0 million, bearing in mind that the data does not provide a like-for-like comparison with the same quarter of the prior year.

Revenue for the twelve-month period ended in 2026 totaled approximately $1.9 billion, while net income in the latest reading reached $227.0 million and earnings per share reached approximately $2.73, compared with revenue of $2.0 billion, net income of $193.0 million, and earnings per share of $2.38 in fiscal 2025. The data did not disclose gross profit or a numerical revenue breakdown between utility and unregulated activities, but management explained that EIP supported Q2 fiscal 2026 results with a gain related to an investment that went public.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 3, 2026, Avista reaffirmed its full-year utility earnings outlook after reporting $413.0 million in revenue and $35.0 million in net income for Q2 fiscal 2026, supporting the stability of the operating outlook despite emergency conditions.
  • Several transmission lines and distribution infrastructure in west Spokane were damaged by the August 2026 fires, but the company repaired and restored a major transmission line on the morning of August 3, materially reducing the risk of additional outages resulting from grid capacity constraints.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Wildfire risk mitigation measures demonstrated clear operational value; crews found several trees that had fallen on one of the lines proactively de-energized under the Public Safety Power Shutoff program, while the company confirmed that its facilities did not cause the fires.
  • Avista suspended negotiations regarding a 500-megawatt data center project and removed it from the upside opportunities in its capital plan, while keeping the memorandum of understanding in place, until regulatory protections are available to ensure a net benefit for existing customers and prevent costs from being passed on to them.
  • EIP investments boosted unregulated activities in Q2 fiscal 2026 after one of the portfolio companies, ERock, went public; management expects an additional timing-related gain in the following quarter, with the possibility that a large portion of it could reverse depending on ERock's share performance.
  • The Washington rate case represents a regulatory catalyst with specific dates; management expected to file its response on August 7, 2026, hold hearings on September 17 and 18, 2026, and receive the commission's decision around mid-December 2026.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The company reaffirmed its full-year utility earnings outlook on August 3, 2026, despite fire damage and service outages, indicating that management did not see any reason in the information available at the time to change its full-year earnings framework.
    • +The latest net income for the twelve-month period ended in 2026 improved to $227.0 million and earnings per share to approximately $2.73, compared with net income of $193.0 million and earnings per share of $2.38 in fiscal 2025, while revenue remained near $2 billion.
    • +Avista's investments in vegetation management, real-time monitoring, and proactive power shutoff procedures proved beneficial during the Spokane fires in August 2026, as de-energizing a line on which several trees fell prevented the line from remaining energized in a highly hazardous environment.
    • +EIP investments could provide liquidity that reduces some equity issuance needs once exits become possible after lockup restrictions expire, according to management's explanation during the Q2 fiscal 2026 call.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Damage from the Spokane fires in August 2026 remains an unresolved operational and financial risk; multiple transmission lines and distribution infrastructure were damaged, and approximately 7,300 of 429 thousand electric customers and approximately 5,300 of 386 thousand gas customers were without service at the time of the call, while the company had not completed its estimate of the damage or the time required to restore the infrastructure.
    • −The Washington rate case entails material regulatory uncertainty, as management said a settlement appears difficult due to disagreements over the four-year plan term, return, and power supply costs, and the commission's decision was not expected before mid-December 2026.
    • −Q2 fiscal 2026 results declined compared with Q1 of the same fiscal year, as revenue fell from $570.0 million to $413.0 million, net income declined from $92.0 million to $35.0 million, and earnings per share fell from $1.11 to $0.43, although the data does not isolate the effect of seasonality.
    • −The company suspended negotiations regarding the 500-megawatt data center project and removed it from the upside opportunities in the capital plan, delaying a potential source of load growth until concerns regarding affordability, reliability, rates, and protection of existing customers are resolved.
    • −The EIP portfolio could add volatility to earnings; management expected an additional gain related to ERock in the following quarter, but explained that most of that gain could reverse based on the company's post-IPO share movement, while lockup restrictions also prevent an immediate exit.
    • −The valuation has limited analyst support, as the consensus is Neutral and the target range is confined to $37 to $39 with an average of $38, which is approximately 12.6% below the 52-week range high of $43.5; the price-to-earnings ratio is also unavailable in the data, limiting direct earnings-based comparison.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on AVA is Neutral, with an average price target of $38 and a narrow range of $37 to $39, reflecting limited dispersion in published estimates. The average is below the 52-week range high of $43.5 and above its low of $35.5, while the data does not provide a valid price-to-earnings ratio for comparison; therefore, the valuation assessment is largely tied to the outcome of the Washington rate case and the cost of damage from the August 2026 fires.

    HoldAnalyst target: $38(+3.3%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What did AVA's Q2 fiscal 2026 results show?

    Avista reported revenue of $413.0 million and net income of $35.0 million in Q2 fiscal 2026. Earnings per share were $0.43, and net income equaled approximately 8.5% of revenue based on a direct calculation. On August 3, 2026, the company reaffirmed its full-year utility earnings outlook despite the quarterly results and the fires surrounding the Spokane area.

    What impact did the Spokane fires have on Avista's operations?

    Avista reported on August 3, 2026, that the fires had damaged several transmission lines and the distribution network in west Spokane, while assessment of the full extent of the damage was ongoing. Approximately 7,300 of 429 thousand electric customers and approximately 5,300 of 386 thousand natural gas customers were without service at the time of the call. The company confirmed that its facilities did not start the fires and that the remaining outages were related to active fire conditions, damage, and safety constraints, rather than the precautionary shutoff event, which had ended.

    Was Avista's wildfire risk mitigation plan successful?

    Management said that vegetation management, real-time monitoring, and operational changes demonstrated their value during the August 2026 fires. Crews found several trees that had fallen on one of the lines that was proactively de-energized while inspecting it before restoration. The company also repaired and restored a major transmission line on the morning of August 3, 2026, reducing the risk of new outages caused by grid capacity constraints.

    What is the status of the 500-megawatt data center project?

    Avista suspended negotiations related to the project and removed the 500-megawatt opportunity from the upside in its capital plan, while the memorandum of understanding remained in place as of the August 3, 2026 call. Management requires any large data center to make a meaningful contribution to affordability and maintain or enhance reliability for existing customers. The company is evaluating potential tariffs, a hybrid special contract, and regulatory protections that would prevent any project costs from being passed on to existing customers.

    Why were unregulated activity results strong in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Management attributed the improvement to EIP, as one of the fund's investments generated a gain ahead of ERock's public offering. The company expected to record an additional gain in the following quarter due to a timing difference, but warned that movement in ERock's shares could reverse most of that gain. EIP cannot exit immediately because of the customary post-IPO lockup period, but a later exit could support cash flow and reduce some of Avista's equity issuance needs.

    What is the most important regulatory event to monitor in the Washington rate case?

    Avista requested a four-year rate plan, but other parties objected to the length of the plan, the level of return, and the treatment of power supply costs. Management said on August 3, 2026, that reaching a settlement appeared difficult, although it believed the commission staff's position was relatively close to the company's position on some items. Management identified potential hearings on September 17 and 18, 2026, and expected the commission's order around mid-December 2026.