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Home
Stocks
Atmos Energy Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall46
Balanced — near the middle of the marketSucker StockF 5/9DistressBetter than 46% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
34
19.4x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
60
6.5%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
45
6.1%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
40
3.9x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
51
2.32%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
40
2.5%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
92
9▲3Top tier
ATO

ATO Atmos Energy Corporation

Atmos Energy Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
163.19
▼ ⁦-0.98%⁩ (-1.62)
Market Cap$27.5B
Beta0.60
52w Low52w High
160.10192.51
Last Week
⁦-2.68%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.56%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-3.59%⁩
Last Year
⁦-0.54%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$163
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$185
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$179–$200⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$187.83
⁦+15.1%⁩
Current Price $163.19·Median $184.50
Low
$179.00
High
$200.00
Current price
$163.19
Average target
$187.83
Street summary

Slight Decline in Consensus Amid a Broader Analyst Base

The consensus price target remained steady at 187.83, implying an increase of approximately 15.1% over the current price of 163.19. The consensus has not changed over the past 7 days, while over 30 days it declined by 1.34, or 0.71%, from 189.17, indicating a slight bearish bias rather than a major repricing. The number of analysts included increased from 2 to 5 in one day without any change in the consensus, reflecting a broader sample more than a shift in direction.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.29
Hold
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
21%
Target dispersion
13%
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
1
2
11
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.27 → 3.29
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-13
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-05-29
    Mizuho Securities
    —· $184.00
  • = Reiterate2026-05-21
    Morgan Stanley
    —· $183.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    19.38x
    4.50x36.01x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    18.45x
    4.35x34.77x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.48x
    3.07x24.54x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    -7.3%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Near median
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    6.5%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    15.3%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    52.1%
    9.8%69.4%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    6.1%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.87x
    1.28x10.25x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    2.3%
    1.4%6.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    45.6%
    35.0%95.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.59
    0.573.91
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Atmos Energy operates in natural gas distribution, alongside APT operations related to gas transportation, storage, and service to local distribution companies. Income generation depends on regulated rates in the distribution and pipeline segments, growth in the customer base and loads, and gas transportation revenues through the APT system after accounting for the Rider REV mechanism. During the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, the company added approximately 51 thousand customers, including about 39 thousand in Texas, highlighting the importance of growth in regulated service areas to business expansion.

In Q3 fiscal 2026, revenue was $879.1 million, net income was $242.7 million, and earnings per share were $1.43; accordingly, the calculated net income margin was approximately 27.6%. During the first nine months of fiscal 2026, net income was $1.2 billion and diluted earnings per share were $7.33, up 14.5% from the comparable period, while the impact of Texas House Bill 4384 was approximately $132 million, split between $71 million in the distribution segment and $61 million in APT.

Revenue for the twelve months ended during fiscal 2026 was approximately $4.9 billion, compared with $4.7 billion in fiscal 2025, while net income increased from $1.2 billion in fiscal 2025 to $1.3 billion during the same period. Performance in the first nine months was supported by rate increases of $227 million, a $41 million increase in operating income from customer and load growth, and a $34 million increase in APT through-system revenues after Rider REV.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 6, 2026, management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 earnings per share guidance of $8.40 to $8.50, after recording $7.33 during the first nine months of the fiscal year, making Q4 fiscal 2026 results critical to achieving the full range.
  • Since the beginning of fiscal 2026, Atmos Energy has implemented annualized operating income increases of $396 million and has seven regulatory filings in progress targeting additional increases of approximately $334 million, with most expected to be implemented in Q1 fiscal 2027.
  • Average APT through-system spreads were $4.66 during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, compared with $1.77 in the comparable period of fiscal 2025, adding approximately $34 million, or $0.16, to earnings per share after Rider REV.
  • The company continues to execute a targeted capital spending program of approximately $4.2 billion in fiscal 2026, with spending reaching $3.1 billion through the end of Q3 fiscal 2026, and more than 87% allocated to the safety and reliability of distribution, transmission, and underground storage networks.
  • APT projects support network capacity around the DFW area and include 29 miles of 36-inch pipeline connecting two compressor stations to the Tri-City facility, a bidirectional compressor station in Carthage, and an additional 15 miles completing a 92-mile pipeline loop; these projects were scheduled to enter service by the end of 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The regulated business provides a degree of earnings visibility, as rate increases across the two operating segments contributed $227 million during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, while the seven regulatory filings targeting $334 million provide an additional path for operating income growth in fiscal 2027 if implemented at the requested amounts.
  • +Demand growth is evident across multiple customer categories; the company added 600 commercial customers in Q3 fiscal 2026 and more than 2,500 commercial customers since the beginning of the fiscal year, along with 12 industrial customers expected to consume approximately 950 thousand Mcf annually at full operation, equivalent to the consumption volume of 18 thousand residential customers.
  • +Liquidity of $4.6 billion and an equity capitalization ratio of 60% as of June 30, 2026 support execution of the investment program, while the company had no short-term debt at the end of Q3 fiscal 2026.
  • +APT investments in pipelines, compressor stations, and storage facilities strengthen the network's ability to serve DFW growth and diversify gas supplies from the Haynesville and Cotton Valley regions, with more than 87% of capital spending directed toward safety and reliability.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus on ATO is neutral, with an average price target of $187.83 and a target range of $179 to $200. The average is approximately 2.4% below the 52-week range high of $192.51, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 3.9%; the available data do not provide a valid price-to-earnings ratio for an additional comparison. This valuation reflects a balance between regulatory-supported earnings growth and strong liquidity on one hand, and narrowing APT spreads, higher operating and maintenance expenses, and moderating expected earnings per share growth on the other.

HoldAnalyst target: $187.83(+15.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove ATO's results in Q3 fiscal 2026?

Atmos Energy recorded revenue of $879.1 million, net income of $242.7 million, and earnings per share of $1.43 in Q3 fiscal 2026. During the first nine months of fiscal 2026, diluted earnings per share were $7.33, up 14.5% from the comparable period. Drivers included $227 million in rate increases, a $132 million impact from Texas House Bill 4384, and a $41 million increase related to customer and load growth.

What is Atmos Energy's earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2026?

On August 6, 2026, management reaffirmed an earnings per share range of $8.40 to $8.50 for fiscal 2026. The company had earned $7.33 per share during the first nine months of the same fiscal year. Management explained that APT's performance in Q3 fiscal 2026 was in line with its expectations, but narrower spreads and slightly higher operating and maintenance expenses would affect Q4 fiscal 2026 results.

How does APT activity affect ATO's earnings?

APT activity generated an increase of approximately $34 million, or $0.16 per share, in through-system revenues after Rider REV during the first nine months of fiscal 2026. Average realized spreads were $4.66, compared with $1.77 in the comparable period of fiscal 2025. However, additional transportation capacity entering service in late June and late July 2026 pressured spreads, so management favored the low end of the $0.08–$0.12 per share additional contribution range in the second half of fiscal 2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −A significant share of customer and investment growth is concentrated in Texas; approximately 39 thousand of the nearly 51 thousand new customers during the twelve months ended June 30, 2026 came from the state, while several APT projects are linked to the DFW area, increasing the growth trajectory's sensitivity to operating and regulatory developments in this region.
  • −Opportunities for additional APT earnings declined after new transportation capacity entered service in late June and late July 2026, significantly pressuring spreads beginning in June 2026; therefore, management expected the contribution in the second half of fiscal 2026 to be at the low end of the $0.08 to $0.12 per share range.
  • −Fiscal 2026 operating and maintenance expense expectations increased slightly to a range of $875–885 million, with management attributing the increase to line-locating activity, compliance, and maintenance associated with growth, which may limit the earnings benefit from rate and revenue increases.
  • −The implementation of rule 7.7102 represents a transitional change that benefited fiscal 2026, but management expects annual comparisons to return to a more moderate pattern and projected earnings per share growth of 6% to 8% from fiscal 2026 guidance of $8.40–$8.50, compared with 14.5% growth during the first nine months of fiscal 2026.
  • −A significant portion of future income growth depends on the outcomes of seven regulatory filings targeting approximately $334 million in annual increases, while the $4.2 billion fiscal 2026 capital spending program requires large projects to be completed on schedule; any difference between the requested and implemented amounts will affect the timing of investment recovery.
  • −The neutral analyst consensus signals a more conservative valuation than fiscal 2026 results; the average target of $187.83 is below the 52-week range high of $192.51, and targets range from $179 to $200, reflecting relatively limited dispersion around expected fair value.
Does Atmos Energy have sufficient funding for its investment program?

Available liquidity was $4.6 billion as of June 30, 2026, and the company had no short-term debt at the end of Q3 fiscal 2026. Liquidity included approximately $937 million in net proceeds from outstanding forward sale agreements, which the company expects to cover the remainder of its fiscal 2026 equity needs and a significant portion of its fiscal 2027 needs. Equity capitalization was 60%, while the company targeted capital spending of approximately $4.2 billion in fiscal 2026.

How much did ATO's customer base grow during fiscal 2026?

Atmos Energy added approximately 51 thousand customers during the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, including about 39 thousand in Texas. In Q3 fiscal 2026, it added 600 commercial customers and five industrial customers, while the total since the beginning of the fiscal year reached more than 2,500 commercial customers and 12 industrial customers. The company expects the twelve industrial customers to consume approximately 950 thousand Mcf annually at full operation, equivalent to the consumption volume of 18 thousand residential customers.

What are the main risks to slower ATO earnings growth in fiscal 2027?

Fiscal 2026 benefited from a transitional impact from the implementation of rule 7.7102, and management explained on August 6, 2026 that annual growth would become more moderate after the rule's full-year impact was reflected. The company projected earnings per share growth of 6% to 8% from the fiscal 2026 range of $8.40–$8.50. Additional pressures include narrowing APT spreads and expected operating and maintenance expenses of $875 to $885 million in fiscal 2026.