| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 7 | — | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 91 | — | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 12 | -19.3% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 45 | — | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 14 | — | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 31 | 69.6% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 83 | 5 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
AST SpaceMobile is developing a global space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to ordinary, unmodified mobile phones and operates as an extension of terrestrial telecom operators’ networks rather than a replacement for them. Its business model relies on selling and provisioning ground gateways, achieving contractual milestones with the U.S. government, providing consulting services to network operators, and then generating commercial service revenue as BlueBird satellites enter operation. In Q2 FY2026, its ecosystem included more than 60 network operator partners covering more than 3 billion subscribers, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, STC Group, Bell Canada, and Telus.
Revenue in Q2 FY2026 reached approximately $31.5 million, compared with $1.1 million in the cited comparison period, and more than doubled compared with Q1 FY2026. Revenue came primarily from the delivery of commercial gateways and the achievement of milestones under U.S. government contracts; the company performed work related to 13 gateways for seven customers across five continents, without disclosing a numerical breakdown of revenue between the two activities. The context did not provide a net income figure or gross margin for the quarter, but stated that the results fell short of analysts’ earnings estimates.
AST SpaceMobile remains in a capital-intensive investment and operating phase and is not a company with stable profits; adjusted operating expenses reached $119.1 million in Q2 FY2026, including $95.9 million excluding cost of revenue, compared with $91.2 million and $79.8 million, respectively, in the previous quarter. Capital expenditure reached approximately $610 million, compared with $257 million in the previous quarter, driven by launch contracts, BlueBird satellite materials and labor, and production facility equipment. In contrast, cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash exceeded $3.7 billion on a pro forma basis as of June 30, 2026, after accounting for a $1.15 billion convertible notes issuance in July 2026.
Analyst consensus rates ASTS a “Buy,” with an average price target of $95.5 and a range between $78 and $108; both the average and the highest target are below the 52-week range high of $133.86, while the low end of the range is $36.08. A price-to-earnings multiple is unavailable because of the absence of measurable positive earnings, so the valuation depends on converting the $1.3 billion business backlog and FY2026 revenue guidance of between $150 million and $200 million into actual commercial service, against a market capitalization of $23.5 billion and high capital and operating expenditure.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
The company generated $31.5 million in revenue in Q2 FY2026, driven primarily by deliveries of commercial gateways and the completion of milestones under U.S. government contracts. During the same quarter, it performed work related to 13 gateways for seven customers across five continents, alongside consulting services for network operators. Management expects gateways and government milestones to remain key drivers, with the potential addition of initial commercial service revenue when the planned satellites are activated.
The company targets having approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027 and says that between 45 and 60 satellites could enable continuous service in key markets such as the United States, Europe, and Japan. It had 13 spacecraft in orbit in Q2 FY2026, with BlueBird 14 through 16 in final testing and production extending through BlueBird 46. It has also booked ten launches with two providers and targets an average launch cadence of every month or two to reach the required orbital density.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The approximately $1.3 billion balance includes contracted revenue, partner agreements, and awards linked to the U.S. government. Management explained during the Q2 FY2026 call that the government represents a minority of the total balance, although most of the latest additions were government-related. The near-term pipeline includes three U.S. government awards with funded value exceeding $100 million and expected during 2026 and 2027, but revenue recognition remains tied to the completion of contractual milestones.
Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash exceeded $3.7 billion on a pro forma basis as of June 30, 2026, after accounting for the July 2026 issuance. The issuance raised $1.15 billion through convertible notes due in 2034 carrying a 1.625% coupon, and the company purchased a hedge that raised the effective conversion price to $149.20 per share. However, capital expenditure reached $610 million in Q2 FY2026, and the estimated capital cost per satellite within the constellation of more than 90 satellites ranges between $21 million and $23 million.
AST SpaceMobile designed its network to extend operators’ terrestrial networks into space, using spectrum provided by partners alongside spectrum controlled by the company. In Q2 FY2026, it had more than 60 operator partners covering more than 3 billion subscribers, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, STC Group, Bell Canada, and Telus. The company says its existing agreements with AT&T and Verizon were unaffected by the U.S. joint venture referenced in the call and that it seeks to make its network available to all operators as markets mature.
Management reaffirmed an FY2026 revenue range of between $150 million and $200 million, but expects its achievement to be weighted toward Q4 FY2026. The conditions include the successful launch and deployment of BlueBird satellites, completion of government milestones, delivery of gateway equipment, and the start of commercial service activation. The increase in adjusted operating expenses to $119.1 million and capital expenditure to $610 million in Q2 FY2026 also increases the plan’s sensitivity to any operational delay.
