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Stocks
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
ASO

ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
55.36
▲ ⁦+2.11%⁩ (+1.15)
Market Cap$3.4B
Beta1.03
52w Low52w High
41.2962.45
Last Week
⁦+26.97%⁩
Last Month
⁦+11.70%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+8.34%⁩
Last Year
⁦+11.30%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall81
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9Grey zoneBetter than 81% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
93
9.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
28
3.7%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
67
12.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
70
2.3x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
46
0.98%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
53
0.8%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
67
11▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$55
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$58
⁦+4%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$47–$78⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$76
⁦+38%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦9.0⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$58–$76⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$59.10
⁦+6.8%⁩
Current Price $55.36·Median $57.50
Low
$47.00
High
$78.00
Current price
$55.36
Average target
$59.10
Street summary

Stable Targets Amid Improved Valuations

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target remained unchanged at 59.1 over the last day, with a slight decline of 0.12 over seven days and 0.03 over 30 days, with no change in the number of analysts, which remains at three. The target range between 47 and 78, with a median of 57.5, indicates clear variation in estimates and uneven confidence, although the consensus is slightly higher than the current price of 55.36.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.47
Hold
Analyst coverage
19
Buy conviction
47%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
56%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
9
10
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.47 → 3.47
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-10
    Wells Fargo
    NegativeBuy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    Telsey Advisory Group
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    BMO Capital
    Market Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    9.26x
    4.56x36.49x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.18x
    3.79x30.29x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.11x
    2.75x22.03x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    9.7%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    3.7%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    12.4%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    35.8%
    12.0%66.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    12.0%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.34x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.0%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    9.2%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.77
    -2.656.14
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-09-09 data

Company Overview

Academy Sports and Outdoors operates a network of stores and an e-commerce platform selling sporting goods, recreational and outdoor products, apparel, and footwear. Its sales are based on a broad mix that includes sports, fitness, hunting, camping, and grilling equipment, as well as footwear and apparel. This diversity mitigated the impact of weakness in some categories; in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Sports & Recreation sales grew 6% and Outdoor sales grew 4%, while Apparel sales were flat and Footwear declined 1%, noting that footwear represents approximately 20% of total sales. The company supports this growth by opening stores, expanding e-commerce, developing the myAcademy program, and adding brands and products such as HOKA, Ariat, and Redfield.

In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, sales reached $1.6 billion, an increase of 3%, while comparable sales declined 0.4% and e-commerce grew 12.8%. Gross profit according to EDGAR filings was approximately $665.9 million, and the company reported a gross margin of 40.4%, up 440 basis points, although this improvement included a non-recurring impact from tariff refunds. Operating income reached $246 million, up 42.9%, net income was $137.9 million, and diluted earnings per share were $2.17, up 17.3%, while adjusted earnings per share were $2.31, up 19.1%.

During the first half of fiscal 2026, sales reached $3.1 billion, an increase of 4.7%, and comparable sales grew 1.1%. The last-twelve-month figures reported in EDGAR filings indicate revenue of $6.2 billion, gross profit of $2.2 billion, net income of $395.9 million, and earnings per share of approximately $6.23. The composition of demand shows a clear divergence: traffic from households with annual income above $100 thousand rose by high-single-digit percentages, while traffic from households with income below $50 thousand fell by high-single-digit percentages during the second quarter of fiscal 2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Academy Sports raised its fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share guidance range to $6.05–$6.45 and set adjusted earnings per share at $6.50–$6.90, while maintaining its sales guidance at $6.23–$6.36 billion and comparable sales growth between zero and 2%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • New stores remain the largest growth initiative; the company is targeting 22 to 24 store openings during fiscal 2026, opened three stores in the second quarter, and plans to open 11 additional stores in the third quarter. Stores opened between 2022 and 2025 also delivered mid-single-digit comparable growth and added approximately 50 basis points to comparable sales during the second quarter.
  • E-commerce grew 12.8% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and 14% during the first half, alongside the addition of Instacart and Uber Eats to same-day delivery services, completion of the transition to AI-powered semantic search, and the launch of Academy Retail Media Network at the end of the quarter.
  • The integration of myAcademy Rewards with credit cards showed strong early indicators; card applications rose 15%, approval rates improved by more than 900 basis points, and spending on Academy cards increased approximately 20% during the second quarter. Program membership exceeded 15 million, compared with a target of 16 million members by the end of fiscal 2026.
  • New products are supporting sales across multiple categories; soccer equipment grew at double-digit rates, supported by the World Cup, and treadmills increased by high-single-digit percentages, while HOKA was launched in 15 stores and online. ChicknLegs also expanded from 25 to approximately 200 stores, the presence of Ariat shop-in-shops doubled to 200 stores, and the company raised its target for suppressor distribution to 135 stores by the end of fiscal 2026 instead of approximately 100 stores.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The growth model combines unit expansion with e-commerce; newer stores delivered mid-single-digit comparable growth, while the digital channel grew 14% during the first half of fiscal 2026, giving the company two tangible sources of revenue growth.
    • +The company raised its fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share guidance to $6.05–$6.45 and, at the midpoint of guidance, expects sales growth of 4%, gross margin expansion of 100 basis points, net income growth of approximately 7%, and earnings-per-share growth of more than 12% compared with fiscal 2025.
    • +Liquidity provides flexibility to fund growth and return capital; the company ended the second quarter of fiscal 2026 with $298 million in cash and an undrawn $1 billion credit facility after reducing its average cost of debt by 50 basis points. During the first half, it repurchased approximately $181 million of shares, representing around 5% of outstanding shares, with $256 million remaining under the repurchase authorization.
    • +The assortment's diversity reduces dependence on apparel and footwear alone; Sports & Recreation growth of 6% and Outdoor growth of 4% offset flat apparel and a 1% decline in footwear in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. HOKA, Ariat, Redfield, and BURLEBO also support the company's ability to attract higher-income segments and expand sales across the store.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Weakness among lower-income consumers represents the clearest operating risk; traffic from households with annual income below $50 thousand declined by high-single-digit percentages in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, compared with a low-single-digit decline in the first quarter. Management linked this to inflation, higher fuel prices, and pressure on discretionary spending, prompting this segment to purchase closer to the point of need and during periods of deep discounts.
    • −Demand slowed from the first quarter to the second quarter of fiscal 2026, as total sales rose 3% but comparable sales declined 0.4%, and transactions fell approximately 2% despite a 4.5% increase in basket value. Management also expects second-quarter trends to continue through the remainder of the year, and the midpoint of guidance indicates limited comparable growth of approximately 1% in the second half.
    • −The 440-basis-point increase in gross margin in the second quarter was driven by the net impact of tariff refunds, an effect that the company said was non-recurring and would not add another net benefit to the income statement during the remainder of fiscal 2026. Management expects gross margin to be roughly flat in the second half due to price reinvestment and higher fuel and freight costs, making the quality of the sustainable improvement weaker than the reported quarterly improvement.
    • −Promotional and competitive pressures are increasing, as management expects the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 to rely more heavily on promotions compared with the corresponding period, following increased discounting around Father's Day, the Fourth of July, and back-to-school. The company restored selected items to pre-tariff prices after raising Coaches' Polo from $9.99 to $12.99 caused a unit decline that was not offset by the increase in average selling price.
    • −Footwear remained the company's weakest category in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with sales declining 1% despite market-share gains, while Apparel was only flat. This result is significant because footwear represents approximately 20% of sales and because management expects a more competitive pricing environment for softline categories during the second half.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $59.10, compared with a wide target range of $47 to $78 and a consensus rating of “Buy,” reflecting a positive view accompanied by considerable variation in valuation estimates. The average target is approximately 5% below the 52-week range high of $62.445, while the highest target exceeds that high and the lowest target exceeds the range low of $41.29; therefore, realization of the positive outlook depends on continued growth in stores and e-commerce after the tariff-refund benefit expires.

    BuyAnalyst target: $59.1(+6.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-11; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What were the key ASO results in the second quarter of fiscal 2026?

    Academy Sports' sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 reached approximately $1.6 billion, up 3%, while comparable sales declined 0.4%. The company reported a gross margin of 40.4% and operating income of $246 million, while net income according to EDGAR reached approximately $137.9 million. Diluted earnings per share reached $2.17, up 17.3%, and adjusted earnings per share were $2.31, up 19.1%. The margin benefited from 510 basis points related to tariff refunds, offset by a negative impact of 70 basis points from merchandise margin.

    What is Academy Sports' outlook for fiscal 2026?

    The company expects sales of between $6.23 billion and $6.36 billion in fiscal 2026, equivalent to growth of between 3% and 5%. It expects comparable sales between zero and 2%, a gross margin between 35.5% and 36%, and net income between $390 million and $415 million. The earnings-per-share range was raised to $6.05–$6.45, and adjusted earnings per share were set at $6.50–$6.90. The company also expects adjusted free cash flow of between $300 million and $350 million.

    How does Academy Sports plan to increase sales beyond existing stores?

    The company is targeting 22 to 24 store openings during fiscal 2026, after opening three stores in the second quarter and planning to open 11 stores in the third quarter. Stores opened between 2022 and 2025 delivered mid-single-digit comparable growth, and 63 stores from prior cohorts are expected to enter the comparable base by year-end. In the digital channel, sales grew 14% during the first half, and storefronts on Instacart and Uber Eats were added alongside DoorDash. The company also launched Academy Retail Media Network and plans to launch a TikTok shop for the Freely brand during the third quarter of fiscal 2026.

    How important is the myAcademy Rewards program to ASO's outlook?

    The myAcademy program exceeded 15 million members during the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the level that had represented the original year-end target, while the target is now 16 million members. Credit card applications rose 15%, approval rates improved by more than 900 basis points, and spending on Academy cards increased approximately 20% during the quarter. A myAcademy Rewards Mastercard user earns rewards equal to 2% of spending outside Academy, redeemable with the company. Management estimates indicate that a private-label cardholder spends 2.5 times the average customer, while a co-branded cardholder's spending may reach 3.5 times the average.

    Which products and categories are driving Academy Sports' growth?

    Sports & Recreation was the strongest division in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, growing 6%, supported by double-digit growth in soccer equipment and high-single-digit growth in treadmills. Outdoor grew 4%, supported by shooting sports, coolers, and camping, while Footwear declined 1%. The company launched HOKA in 15 stores and online and expanded ChicknLegs to approximately 200 stores and Ariat to 200 stores. In hunting equipment, Academy is targeting suppressor distribution in 135 stores by year-end and the launch of Redfield-branded hunting rifles during the second half.

    What are the greatest risks facing ASO stock according to the September 9, 2026 results?

    The first risk is spending pressure among households with annual income below $50 thousand, whose traffic fell by high-single-digit percentages during the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Comparable sales also declined 0.4% and transactions fell approximately 2%, revealing that revenue growth relied partly on higher basket value and new stores. The quarterly margin improvement was also supported by non-recurring tariff refunds, while management expects continued pressure from fuel, freight, and price investment. Promotional competition and the 1% decline in Footwear add risks to achieving positive and sustainable comparable growth.

  • −Net insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on July 16, 2026, amounted to the sale of 57,600 shares, with no purchases and one sale recorded. This is a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context provides no evidence linking the transaction to a change in the operating outlook.