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Home
Stocks
ASML Holding N.V.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall89
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 8/9Better than 89% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
14
54.2x▼17.6xBottom tier
▸
Growth
76
9.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
86
45.6%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
77
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
51
0.44%▼2.15%Around median
▸
Momentum
83
100.8%▲2.3%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
85
23▲3Top tier
ASML

ASML ASML Holding N.V.

ASML Holding N.V. · NASDAQ
Market Open
1,747.26
▲ ⁦+2.10%⁩ (+35.94)
Market Cap$659.6B
Beta1.36
52w Low52w High
935.411,999.96
Last Week
⁦+9.79%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.94%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.75%⁩
Last Year
⁦+87.44%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$1728
Analyst target · 27 analysts
$2300
⁦+33%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$2000–$2623⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$510
⁦-71%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.4⁩% discount · ⁦8⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$510–$2300⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 27 analysts setting price target
$2305.75
⁦+32.0%⁩
Current Price $1747.26·Median $2300.00
Low
$2000.00
High
$2623.00
Current price
$1747.26
Average target
$2305.75
Street summary

ASML Targets Hold Steady Amid Divergence in Forecast Ranges

The average price target for ASML stock has not changed over one day, one week, or 30 days, remaining at 2305.75, while the number of analysts stayed at 27. The range is between 2000 and 2623, versus a current price of 1711.32, reflecting a clear gap between estimates amid continued divergence in views, with no evidence of a recent improvement or deterioration in consensus.

As of 2026-09-21
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
43
Buy conviction
88%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
36%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time43 analysts rating
6
32
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.75 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-14
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-27
    Bank of America Securities
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-17
    Citigroup
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    54.21x
    7.02x56.18x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    42.36x
    4.43x35.48x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    1.6%
    -54.9%10.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.8%
    -18.1%67.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    15.0%
    -155.6%189.9%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    52.7%
    13.2%79.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    45.6%
    -63.6%26.8%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    0.4%
    0.0%3.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    24.0%
    4.5%95.3%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-15 data

Company Overview

ASML Holding N.V. develops and sells lithography systems used in semiconductor manufacturing, and its portfolio includes Low-NA and High-NA EUV systems, immersion and dry DUV systems, as well as metrology and inspection products. The company generates additional revenue from Installed Base Management, including system services and performance and productivity upgrades; in Q2 FY2026, system sales amounted to €6.6 billion, while Installed Base Management sales amounted to €2.8 billion.

In Q2 FY2026, ASML recorded net sales of €9.3 billion and net income of €2.9 billion, equivalent to a net income margin of 31.3% and earnings per share of €7.59. Gross margin reached 54%, exceeding the company’s guidance due to high-margin components within Installed Base Management, while research and development expenses amounted to €1.3 billion and selling, general, and administrative expenses were approximately €0.3 billion.

Within system sales in Q2 FY2026, EUV systems contributed approximately €3.8 billion, including one High-NA system, compared with €2.8 billion for non-EUV systems. System sales were distributed almost evenly between logic applications at 51% and memory at 49%. On an annual basis, revenue increased from $28.3 billion in FY2024 to $32.7 billion in FY2025, and net income rose from $7.6 billion to $9.6 billion.

What's Driving the Stock

  • ASML raised its FY2026 guidance to revenue of between €43 billion and €45 billion and a gross margin of between 54% and 56%, supported by strong demand and its improved ability to increase output across the supply chain, manufacturing, and field service teams.
  • The company expects sales of systems for advanced logic foundries to grow by more than 25% during FY2026, driven by expansion of the 3-nanometer node for AI accelerators, investment in the 5- and 4-nanometer nodes, acceleration of the 2-nanometer node, and the start of planning for the 1.4-nanometer node.
  • ASML expects memory system sales to grow by more than 75% during FY2026, with significant investment in DRAM capacity and increased lithography intensity from the transition to advanced nodes and greater use of EUV and immersion DUV.
  • The company plans to ship approximately 65 Low-NA EUV systems in FY2026, supporting growth of more than 45% in sales of this category. It also expects growth of approximately 25% in non-EUV system sales and more than 30% in Installed Base Management.
  • ASML announced on July 15, 2026, that Intel Foundry is using High-NA EUV technology on the Intel 18A node to produce a subset of Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processors, a production application that helps demonstrate the platform’s readiness as work continues to increase its maturity.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Annual growth in financial results reinforces the quality of the operating momentum; ASML’s revenue rose by approximately 15.5% in FY2025 to $32.7 billion, while net income grew by approximately 26.3% to $9.6 billion and earnings per share increased to 24.71 from 19.24 in FY2024.
  • +AI-related demand provides the company with two simultaneous growth drivers: increased investment in advanced logic for AI accelerators and higher DRAM spending on DDR and HBM, with memory sales expected to grow by more than 75% and advanced logic sales by more than 25% in FY2026.
  • +Orders for Low-NA EUV systems for FY2027 were close to fully covering planned capacity as of July 15, 2026, and the company had also received a significant number of orders for FY2028, providing several years of visibility across a broad customer mix.
  • +Installed Base Management supports profitability and cash flow through services and upgrades; its sales exceeded Q2 FY2026 guidance by approximately €300 million, and its high-margin components helped raise gross margin to 54%.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $2305.75 and a range between $2000 and $2623. Even the lowest target is approximately at the 52-week range high of $1999.96, while the average target exceeds that high by approximately 15.3%, reflecting strong expectations but increasing the valuation’s sensitivity to any slowdown in demand, pressure from China, or setbacks in expanding production capacity.

BuyAnalyst target: $2,305.75(+32.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What prompted ASML to raise its FY2026 guidance?

ASML raised its revenue guidance to a range between €43 billion and €45 billion, with a gross margin between 54% and 56%. On July 15, 2026, management attributed this to strong customer demand and its ability to increase output across the supply chain, manufacturing, and field service teams. The company also expects Q3 FY2026 sales of between €11 billion and €12 billion and a gross margin between 55% and 57%.

How does ASML benefit from AI spending?

AI is driving investment in the 3-nanometer node for AI accelerators and in the 5- and 4-nanometer nodes for supporting chips, alongside acceleration of the 2-nanometer node for high-performance computing applications. In memory, DDR and HBM requirements are leading to additional DRAM capacity and an increase in the number of EUV and immersion DUV layers. ASML therefore expects growth of more than 25% in advanced logic system sales and more than 75% in memory system sales in FY2026.

How important is ASML’s Installed Base Management business?

Installed Base Management generated sales of €2.8 billion in Q2 FY2026, exceeding guidance by approximately €300 million. The outperformance came primarily from system upgrades, and high-margin components helped raise the quarterly gross margin to 54%. The company expects this business to grow by more than 30% in FY2026 as the EUV installed base expands and customer demand for performance and productivity upgrades increases.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
China-related business represents approximately 20% of ASML’s expected total sales in FY2026, creating material exposure to a single market at a time when its ability to purchase advanced lithography equipment is changing.
  • −Reports on July 28, 2026, indicated that China had successfully manufactured DUV machines domestically, a development that could pressure ASML’s future market share and margins if Chinese alternatives become commercially viable on a broad scale.
  • −U.S.-led export restrictions place ASML between controls on the sale of advanced equipment and China’s ambitions for self-sufficiency, and according to news reports on July 28, 2026, these restrictions have helped accelerate Chinese programs to develop domestic lithography tools.
  • −The High-NA EUV platform is still being brought to the level of maturity required for high-volume manufacturing, while its higher cost compared with using Low-NA with multiple patterning was raised during the July 15, 2026, call; therefore, broader adoption depends on demonstrating cost and performance benefits to customers.
  • −Increasing Low-NA EUV and immersion DUV capacity by approximately 30% in FY2027, and considering another increase of approximately 30% in FY2028, require rapid execution within existing facilities and close supply-chain coordination, at a time when management said demand for the two years had not yet reached a stable state.
  • −The average analyst target is $2305.75, approximately 15.3% above the 52-week range high of $1999.96, while the target range starts at $2000 and ends at $2623; these levels set high expectations for continued demand and margins and for the execution of capacity increases without disruption.
  • How far has ASML’s High-NA EUV technology progressed?

    ASML recorded the sale of one High-NA system in Q2 FY2026 and maintained its expectation of recognizing revenue from four to five systems during FY2026. On July 15, 2026, it announced that Intel Foundry is using High-NA EUV on the Intel 18A node to produce a subset of Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processors. However, management confirmed that the platform is still progressing toward the level of maturity required for introduction into high-volume manufacturing and toward demonstrating its cost advantage over multiple patterning using Low-NA and immersion DUV.

    How large a risk does China pose to ASML’s business?

    ASML expects China-related sales to represent approximately 20% of total FY2026 sales and to grow roughly in line with the overall business, driven by demand for mainstream logic. However, reports on July 28, 2026, said that China had manufactured DUV machines domestically, potentially creating a competitor in an important category of lithography equipment. This coincides with U.S.-led export restrictions, combining the risk of limiting ASML’s market access with the risk of accelerating Chinese domestic alternatives.

    Can ASML meet expected demand in FY2027 and FY2028?

    As of July 15, 2026, the company was close to covering its FY2027 Low-NA EUV capacity with orders and plans to increase that capacity by approximately 30%. It is also considering another increase of approximately 30% for FY2028 after receiving a significant number of orders and is planning a similar path for immersion DUV systems. Management says these increases can be implemented by optimizing existing space, but it also clarified that demand remains variable and that the FY2028 scenario has not been fully covered by final purchase orders.