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Stocks
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall88
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 7/9SafeBetter than 88% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
5
270.2x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
89
25.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
87
7.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
90
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
51
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
78
92.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
53
21▲3Around median
ARM

ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares · NASDAQ
Market Closed
264.79
▲ ⁦+4.17%⁩ (+10.61)
Market Cap$282.8B
Beta3.91
52w Low52w High
100.02452.70
Last Week
⁦+12.74%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.54%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-13.87%⁩
Last Year
⁦+88.06%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$265
Analyst target · 12 analysts
$320
⁦+21%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$210–$641⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$23
⁦-91%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦11⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$23–$320⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 12 analysts setting price target
$363.15
⁦+37.1%⁩
Current Price $264.79·Median $320.00
Low
$210.00
High
$641.00
Current price
$264.79
Average target
$363.15
Street summary

Monthly Rise in Consensus Amid Wide Dispersion

The average price target rose to 363.15, an increase of 21.33 or 6.24% over the last 30 days, but declined by 3.60 or 0.98% over the last 7 days, and remained unchanged over the last day. The number of analysts remained at 12, meaning that the monthly improvement is not due to a change in sample size. Dispersion remains wide between the highest target at 641 and the lowest target at 210, while the median stands at 320 compared with the current price of 254.18.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+6.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.74
Buy
Analyst coverage
42
Buy conviction
64%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
163%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time42 analysts rating
7
20
13
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.55 → 3.74
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-25
    Raymond James
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    UBS
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    270.19x
    6.87x54.92x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    113.08x
    5.19x41.53x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    245.63x
    4.52x36.15x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    0.5%
    -54.8%10.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    25.1%
    -18.1%66.5%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    48.5%
    -155.3%193.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    97.5%
    12.9%79.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    7.9%
    -63.6%26.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    67.98
    -10.9113.66
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Arm develops a computing platform used across cloud infrastructure, data centers, personal computers, phones, vehicles, robotics, and industrial systems. Its core model relies on revenue from licensing architectures and intellectual property to customers, followed by royalties as products built on its technologies are shipped; it has also begun expanding its model toward selling silicon through Arm AGI CPU, with its future revenue remaining separate from licensing and royalties once it reaches 10% of revenue.

In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, Arm reported record first-quarter revenue of $1.29 billion, up 22% year over year and exceeding analysts' estimates of $1.26 billion. Royalty revenue was $715 million, or about 55% of the total, up 22%, while licensing and other revenue was $574 million, or about 45%, up 23%; of this amount, the SoftBank licensing and design services agreement contributed about $193 million.

According to EDGAR filings, net income was $270 million and earnings per share were $0.25 in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, equivalent to a net margin of approximately 21% based on revenue of $1.29 billion. Adjusted results showed earnings per share of $0.45, up 29%, operating income of $531 million, and an operating margin of approximately 41%, up 200 basis points, while free cash flow was $665 million during the quarter and $1.4 billion during the trailing twelve months.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Demand for Arm AGI CPU exceeded $2 billion by the July 29, 2026 earnings announcement, after the company had identified an initial $1 billion opportunity spread across fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2028. Arm delivered initial products to several customers, added customers in the United States and China, and confirmed that it had secured the manufacturing capacity needed to support the $1 billion opportunity, with growing confidence in generating revenue above that amount.
  • Data center royalty revenue more than doubled year over year in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, while Neoverse shipments surpassed 1.5 billion cores; the latest 500 million cores were shipped in just nine months, compared with six years for the first billion. This acceleration is supported by NVIDIA Vera entering production, AWS plans to deploy tens of millions of Graviton5 cores, Microsoft's expansion of Azure Cobalt 200 instances, and Google's use of the Axion processor with its latest TPU systems.
  • Arm expects second-quarter fiscal year 2027 revenue of $1.38 billion, plus or minus $50 million, representing growth of approximately 22% at the midpoint. It expects licensing and other revenue to grow by about 30%, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.47, plus or minus $0.04, reflecting continued strength in contracting despite a slowdown in some royalties.
  • Annualized contract value ACV grew 13% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, driven by high-value agreements and renewals of existing customers under long-term licenses. The cited demand base included cloud computing, automotive, and robotics companies, as well as phone manufacturers, broadening the sources of growth across multiple markets.
  • The software ecosystem for the Arm platform expanded to more than 22 million developers, and the company launched Performix with support from Microsoft, MongoDB, Redis, and SAP to analyze and optimize workloads on the Arm architecture. Arm MCP server also surpassed ten thousand downloads through Docker, while RTX Spark and Jetson Thor are expanding the use of the Arm architecture in local computing and physical AI.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Arm's model combines upfront licensing revenue with shipment-linked royalties, and both sources grew by more than 20% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027; royalties rose to $715 million, while licensing and other revenue increased to $574 million.
  • +Accelerating Neoverse adoption gives Arm direct exposure to the growth of AI infrastructure at NVIDIA, Google, AWS, and Microsoft, with data center royalties doubling and 500 million cores shipped in just nine months. IDC also reported that spending on Arm-based accelerated server platforms nearly doubled over two quarters and exceeded spending on x86 platforms.
  • +Arm AGI CPU provides an additional growth path beyond the traditional intellectual property model; announced demand exceeded $2 billion, and the product is suited for general-purpose servers, host nodes, and agentic AI workloads. Management stated that its confidence in exceeding the $1 billion opportunity increased during the ninety days preceding the July 29, 2026 results.
  • +Arm maintained strong profitability despite increased investment, with an adjusted operating margin of approximately 41% and free cash flow of $665 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. Free cash flow of $1.4 billion during the trailing twelve months gives the company the capacity to fund the development of architectures, compute systems, and Arm AGI CPU.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $366.75, a high target of $641, and a low target of $210; the average is about 19% below the 52-week range high of $452.70, while the wide target range reveals substantial disagreement over the value of the AI opportunity. A July 29, 2026 report cited a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 113 times, tying the valuation to exceptional growth in Neoverse and Arm AGI CPU, while smartphone royalty deceleration, supply constraints, and low initial silicon margins reflect repricing pressures.

BuyAnalyst target: $366.75(+38.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

How did Arm generate its revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027?

Revenue was $1.29 billion, up 22% year over year. Royalties contributed $715 million, while licensing and other revenue was $574 million, including $193 million from the SoftBank agreement. Net income according to EDGAR was about $270 million and earnings per share were $0.25, while adjusted earnings per share reached $0.45.

How large is the Arm AGI CPU opportunity?

Arm announced on July 29, 2026 that demand for Arm AGI CPU had exceeded $2 billion after adding customers in the United States and China. The company had identified an initial $1 billion opportunity across fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2028, then became more confident in exceeding it after securing the capacity needed for the initial amount and making progress in adding further supply. The processor targets general-purpose servers, host nodes, and agentic AI workloads, with announced customers including Cerebras, OpenAI, Meta, Cloudflare, and Oracle.

Why are AI data centers a major driver for Arm?

Data center royalty revenue more than doubled year over year in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, and Neoverse shipments surpassed approximately 1.5 billion cores. NVIDIA Vera entered production, Google uses the Axion processor with its latest TPU systems, AWS plans to deploy tens of millions of Graviton5 cores, and Microsoft expanded Azure Cobalt 200 instances. Arm says the latest 500 million Neoverse cores were shipped in nine months, compared with six years for the first billion cores.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −The SoftBank agreement represented about $193 million of the $574 million in licensing and other revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, or approximately 34% of that category and about 15% of total revenue. Arm also expects the agreement's quarterly contribution to decline to about $200 million for the remainder of the year, while emphasizing that the timing and size of large deals make licensing revenue volatile between quarters.
  • −Higher memory prices weakened the smartphone market across low-, mid-, and high-end devices, not only low-end devices. As a result, management lowered its fiscal year 2027 royalty growth estimate from about 20% to the high teens percentage range and set second-quarter fiscal year 2027 royalty growth at about 13%, increasing reliance on cloud computing outperformance to offset the weakness.
  • −Despite improving confidence, Arm AGI CPU growth remains constrained by the availability of chips, memory, substrates, testing capacity, and TSMC wafers, and the CEO described the supply environment as extremely tight. The company is focused on reaching $2 billion in fiscal year 2028 before assuming greater expansion, making the conversion of announced demand into revenue dependent on expanding actual capacity.
  • −Arm expects a gross margin in the high thirties to low forties percentage range for the first generation of Arm AGI CPU during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2028, far below its 97.5% gross margin in its current business. It does not expect to reach a 50% margin in this business until approximately two years later by bringing more work in-house, while supply-chain price increases may also affect pricing.
  • −A July 29, 2026 report cited a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 113 times, leaving limited room for error if results and guidance do not continue to exceed expectations. Analysts' price targets also range from $210 to $641, a wide dispersion that reflects the valuation's sensitivity to the pace of Arm adoption in data centers and its ability to execute the Arm AGI CPU plan.
  • −Net insider transactions during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 2, 2026 amounted to $39.6 million in sales, with 15 sales and no purchases recorded. This is a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the available information contains no evidence to the contrary.
What impact is weakness in the smartphone market having on Arm's results?

Higher memory prices slowed phone demand across the low-, mid-, and high-end segments during fiscal year 2027. Management lowered its annual royalty growth estimate from about 20% to the high teens percentage range and guided to approximately 13% growth in the second quarter of fiscal year 2027. In contrast, increased adoption of Armv9 and compute systems, higher royalty rates, and cloud computing outperformance are helping offset part of the decline in phone units.

What is Arm's guidance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027?

Arm expects revenue of $1.38 billion, plus or minus $50 million, equivalent to growth of approximately 22% at the midpoint. It expects licensing and other revenue to grow by about 30% year over year, compared with royalty growth in the low-to-mid teens percentage range, with the CFO later specifying an estimate of approximately 13%. It also expects adjusted operating expenses of approximately $780 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.47, plus or minus $0.04.

What are the main execution risks facing Arm AGI CPU?

Producing Arm AGI CPU requires securing chips, memory, substrates, testing capacity, and wafers from TSMC in a market that management described on July 29, 2026 as extremely tight. Arm confirmed that it had secured the capacity needed for the $1 billion opportunity and does not see a single point of failure that could disrupt execution, but it is still working to secure additional capacity to convert demand exceeding $2 billion into revenue. The first generation also starts with a margin in the high thirties to low forties percentage range, and the company does not expect to reach 50% until approximately two years later.