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Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.
ARLP

ARLP Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
26.53
▼ ⁦-1.27%⁩ (-0.34)
Market Cap$3.4B
Beta0.20
52w Low52w High
22.2029.45
Last Week
⁦-0.04%⁩
Last Month
⁦+7.76%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+4.82%⁩
Last Year
⁦+15.15%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall84
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/9Better than 84% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
90
12.9x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
16
-5.1%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
69
13.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
83
0.8x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
24
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
68
10.1%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
76
2▼3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$27
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$30
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$30–$30⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$59
⁦+123%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$30–$59⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$30.00
⁦+13.1%⁩
Current Price $26.53·Median $30.00
Low
$30.00
High
$30.00
Street summary

ARLP Stock Analyst Forecast Analysis

Alliance Resource Partners stock shows a state of complete stability in price forecasts over the past 30 days, with the target price holding steady at 30 dollars. However, a significant gap in current analytical coverage is noted, as the current consensus relies on only one analyst, which raises the level of uncertainty regarding the comprehensiveness of this valuation for the market as a whole.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
2
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time2 analysts rating
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-02-03
    Benchmark
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2025-10-28
    Benchmark
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2025-09-24
    Industrial Alliance Securities
    —· $30.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.88x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.90x
    3.36x26.89x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    6.15x
    2.12x16.98x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    13.4%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -5.1%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    13.2%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    24.4%
    7.8%72.1%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    13.0%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.77x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-27 data

Company Overview

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. engages in the production and sale of coal, particularly from the Illinois Basin and Appalachia, alongside owning coal, oil, and gas royalty interests and equity method investments. In fiscal Q2 2026, the company sold 8.6 million tons of coal, including 6.4 million tons from the Illinois Basin and 2.2 million tons from Appalachia, at an average sales price of $54.87 per ton. The Coal Operations segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $151.7 million, while the Royalties segments recorded revenue of $69.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $51 million, demonstrating that coal remains the largest operating driver as the contribution from oil and gas royalties expands.

Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue was approximately $551.6 million, and net income attributable to ARLP was approximately $79.6 million, or $0.61 per unit, while adjusted EBITDA reached $185.7 million. These figures represent a net income margin of approximately 14.4% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 33.7%; revenue also increased 6.9% sequentially, net income rose by $70.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew 19.8%. Year over year, net income increased 33.9% and adjusted EBITDA grew 14.7%, supported by higher coal volumes, improved costs, record oil and gas royalty results, and higher equity method investment income, while the comparison was also affected by impairment losses recorded in prior periods.

The Oil & Gas Royalties segment recorded quarterly revenue of $46.5 million in fiscal Q2 2026, up 31.1% year over year, and record adjusted EBITDA of $38 million, up 27.2%. Production volume was 936 thousand barrels of oil equivalent, up 6.4% year over year and down 8.4% sequentially, but the average realized price per barrel of oil equivalent increased 22.7% year over year and 22.1% sequentially. At the annual financial statement level, fiscal 2025 revenue was approximately $2.2 billion and net income was $311.2 million, while the fiscal 2026 trailing twelve-month figures were revenue of $2.2 billion and net income of $246.3 million.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

During fiscal Q2 2026, the company secured new commitments to sell 21.2 million tons, including 18.5 million domestic tons spread over five years and 2.7 million export tons during 2026–2028, and it now has 29.4 million tons committed and priced for delivery in 2027.
  • Coal production economics improved despite the lower price; the average sales price declined 5.3% year over year to $54.87 per ton, but adjusted EBITDA expense per ton improved 6.3% to $38.68. At Tunnel Ridge specifically, expense improved 29.7% year over year and 25.7% sequentially to $46.22 per ton due to productivity and improved recovery rates.
  • Management expects to sell approximately 18 million additional tons in the second half of fiscal 2026 to reach the midpoint of the guidance range, with approximately 9 million tons in each of the final two quarters. It also indicated that Hamilton's return to a higher operating rate could nearly double its production in Q3 compared with Q2, and that second-half costs could decline by approximately 10% from the first half to reach the midpoint of the guidance range.
  • On July 1, 2026, ARLP closed the AllDale Minerals III and AllDale Minerals IV transaction for $206.2 million, becoming the owner of approximately 61% of the economic interest in the two funds. Management expects the transaction to increase distributable cash flow per unit by 8% to 9% in the following year, and it raised fiscal 2026 oil and gas royalty volume guidance to include the transaction's contribution beginning in Q3.
  • The company maintained fiscal 2026 coal guidance for sales of between 33.75 and 35.25 million tons, a price of between $54 and $56 per ton, and adjusted EBITDA expense of between $37 and $39 per ton. Management said committed and priced production effectively covers the midpoint of 2026 guidance, giving contractual visibility greater weight than spot-market volatility.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Fiscal Q2 2026 delivered simultaneous improvements in volume and efficiency; coal sales increased to 8.6 million tons, and adjusted EBITDA from the Coal Operations segment increased 6.9% year over year and 21.3% sequentially to $151.7 million despite the lower average sales price.
    • +The contract book provides a high degree of revenue visibility, with 29.4 million tons committed and priced for 2027 after adding 21.2 million tons of new commitments during fiscal Q2 2026. Management placed the pricing of the new commitments at approximately the mid-$50s per ton in the Illinois Basin and the mid-$60s in Northern Appalachia, with inflation-linked increases in some contracts.
    • +The Oil & Gas Royalties segment adds a growing source of income outside mining operations; it recorded record revenue of $46.5 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $38 million in fiscal Q2 2026. The AllDale transaction expands the presence across several U.S. basins, including Permian and Haynesville, with management expecting 8% to 9% growth in distributable cash flow per unit in the following year.
    • +Leverage remained limited before fully accounting for the closing of the AllDale transaction, with a total debt-to-trailing-twelve-month adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.82 times and net leverage of 0.67 times as of June 30, 2026. Liquidity was also $424 million and distributable cash flow was $108.2 million, with distribution coverage of 1.39 times.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Performance remains exposed to the coal demand cycle, weather, and natural gas prices; management said mild weather and lower gas prices reduced domestic coal demand in the first half of fiscal 2026. It also explained that any outperformance relative to volume guidance depends heavily on summer consumption and the pace of utility inventory drawdowns.
    • −The company faces pricing pressure as older, higher-priced contracts at Tunnel Ridge expire; the overall average coal price declined 5.3% year over year and 2.7% sequentially to $54.87 per ton in fiscal Q2 2026. In Appalachia, the price fell to $63.57 per ton, making continued profitability improvement dependent on productivity and cost control.
    • −The $206.2 million AllDale transaction involved the use of cash, credit facilities, and a new $150 million loan that matures in 18 months and bears interest at SOFR plus 175 to 225 basis points. Management announced that reducing leverage and preserving financial flexibility became priorities after closing, reflecting the financing and liquidity burden associated with the expansion.
    • −Earnings include exposure to volatility in assets not directly related to core operations; the company owned 646 Bitcoin units valued at $37.8 million as of June 30, 2026. A 14.1% sequential decline in their value resulted in a fair-value loss of $6.3 million, or a negative impact of $0.05 per unit in fiscal Q2 2026.
    • −The increase in equity method investment income recorded in fiscal Q2 2026 may not recur; management attributed it mainly to strong results from the Gavin plant and the NGP fund. It considered approximately $3 million per quarter a reasonable estimate for the remainder of fiscal 2026, indicating that the latest quarter's contribution was above the sustainable level management uses for planning.
    • −Valuation offers a limited margin of safety based on the available anchors; the sole analyst target of $30 is only approximately 1.9% above the 52-week range high of $29.45. The consensus is also Neutral, and the data do not provide a price-to-earnings ratio that would allow valuation to be compared with earnings, while fiscal 2026 trailing-twelve-month net income declined to $246.3 million from $311.2 million in fiscal 2025.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on ARLP is Neutral, with an average price target of $30 and identical high and low targets of $30; this means the range is based on a single target without dispersion that would provide additional support for the consensus view. This target is only approximately 1.9% above the 52-week range high of $29.45, while the range extends to $22.20, and the data do not provide a price-to-earnings ratio for valuing the units based on earnings. Therefore, the available valuation rests on a Neutral target near the annual high, against strong operating improvement but with coal pricing pressure, financing for the AllDale transaction, and lower trailing-twelve-month net income compared with fiscal 2025.

    HoldAnalyst target: $30(+13.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove ARLP's results in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Revenue was $551.6 million and net income attributable to ARLP was approximately $79.6 million, or $0.61 per unit. Adjusted EBITDA increased 14.7% year over year to $185.7 million. The improvement came from higher coal volumes, lower operating cost per ton, record oil and gas royalty results, and higher income from the Gavin and NGP investments, while comparisons were also affected by impairment losses in prior periods.

    How important is the AllDale transaction to ARLP's Oil & Gas Royalties segment?

    ARLP closed the transaction on July 1, 2026, for $206.2 million and now owns approximately 61% of the economic interest in AllDale Minerals III and AllDale Minerals IV. The transaction added scale across several U.S. basins, with a significant position in Permian and entry into Haynesville. Management expects the transaction to be immediately accretive to free cash flow per unit and to increase distributable cash flow per unit by 8% to 9% in the following year. Consolidation of production, revenue, and income in the financial statements will begin in fiscal Q3 2026.

    How much contracted coal sales volume does ARLP have?

    The marketing team booked 21.2 million tons of new commitments during fiscal Q2 2026, including 18.5 million domestic tons over five years and 2.7 million export tons during 2026–2028. This brought committed and priced volume for delivery in 2027 to 29.4 million tons. For fiscal 2026, management said the company is effectively committed and priced at the midpoint of its sales guidance range of 33.75 to 35.25 million tons. This contract book limits the impact of weak spot demand, but it does not eliminate weather and natural gas price risks.

    Does ARLP expect coal production and costs to improve in the second half of fiscal 2026?

    Management expects to sell approximately 18 million tons in the second half to reach the midpoint of guidance, distributed at approximately 9 million tons in each quarter. Hamilton returned to operation in mid-May 2026, and management expects its production to nearly double in Q3 compared with Q2. The longwall mining unit moves planned for 2026 have also been completed, and the company does not expect additional moves until 2027. The midpoint of cost guidance indicates a decline of approximately 10% in the second half compared with the first half, with potentially greater benefits in the Illinois Basin.

    What is the state of ARLP's balance sheet and distributions after fiscal Q2 2026?

    As of June 30, 2026, total debt and finance lease obligations were $590.2 million, compared with cash of $111.2 million and total liquidity of $424 million. The total debt-to-trailing-twelve-month adjusted EBITDA ratio was 0.82 times, and net leverage was 0.67 times. Distributable cash flow was $108.2 million, with a distribution coverage ratio of 1.39 times. Following the AllDale transaction, management identified reducing leverage and preserving financial flexibility among its priorities.

    What are the key risks to monitor for ARLP during fiscal 2026?

    The average coal sales price declined 5.3% year over year to $54.87 per ton due to the expiration of higher-priced contracts and a change in the sales mix, although this was partially offset by cost improvement to $38.68 per ton. Management also tied any upside above guidance to summer consumption and utility inventory drawdowns after mild weather and lower gas prices pressured domestic demand in the first half. The $150 million AllDale loan, which matures in 18 months, added to post-transaction financing risks. In addition, the holding of 646 Bitcoin units caused a fair-value loss of $6.3 million in fiscal Q2 2026, adding non-operating volatility to earnings.