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Home
Stocks
AppLovin Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall85
Excellent — top fifth of the marketFalling StarF 9/9SafeBetter than 85% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
33
24.9x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
95
76.3%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
99
78.6%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
85
0.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
49
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
11
-29.3%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
61
20▲3Around median
APP

APP AppLovin Corporation

AppLovin Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Closed
323.96
▲ ⁦+3.01%⁩ (+9.47)
Market Cap$108.8B
Beta2.53
52w Low52w High
297.50745.61
Last Week
⁦+3.92%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.44%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-37.80%⁩
Last Year
⁦-40.78%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$324
Analyst target · 8 analysts
$515
⁦+59%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$325–$790⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$205
⁦-37%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦12⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$205–$515⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 8 analysts setting price target
$537.73
⁦+66.0%⁩
Current Price $323.96·Median $515.00
Low
$325.00
High
$790.00
Current price
$323.96
Average target
$537.73
Street summary

Slight Decline Amid Wide Variation in APP Targets

The average price target stood at $537.73 from eight analysts, unchanged over one day, but declined 0.15% over seven days and 0.75% over 30 days. The range is between $325 and $790, with a median of $515, reflecting wide variation in analysts’ estimates compared with the current price of $323.96.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.97
Buy
Analyst coverage
33
Buy conviction
79%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
144%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time33 analysts rating
6
20
7
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.79 → 3.97
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-01
    Evercore ISI Group
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    24.86x
    6.87x54.92x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    17.39x
    5.19x41.53x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    20.12x
    4.52x36.15x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    4.1%
    -54.8%10.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    76.3%
    -18.1%66.5%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    85.3%
    -155.3%193.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    88.5%
    12.9%79.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    78.6%
    -63.6%26.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.09x
    0.26x3.22x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    16.75
    -10.9113.66
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

AppLovin operates a digital advertising platform that uses machine learning models to match advertisers with users and achieve return on ad spend targets. Mobile gaming advertising still accounts for the majority of revenue, and its growth depends heavily on improvements in model performance that allow advertisers to increase budgets profitably. The company is expanding into the consumer and e-commerce sector through AppLovin Ads Manager, initially targeting mid-sized brands and attracting them through partnerships such as the collaboration currently being tested with Triple Whale.

In fiscal Q2 2026, AppLovin reported revenue of $1.92 billion, representing 53% year-over-year growth and 4% sequential growth, but it came in below the midpoint of the company's guidance range and below revenue expectations of $1.94 billion. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization totaled approximately $1.7 billion, with an adjusted earnings margin before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of 88.4% and an operating margin of 77.1%.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization totaled $1.61 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, up 58% year over year with a margin exceeding 80%, while free cash flow totaled $863 million. Gaming remained the largest revenue component, while consumer advertiser spending rose to a record level more than 28% above fiscal Q4 2025. The company ended the quarter with $3.05 billion in liquidity versus $3.7 billion in total debt, with net leverage of approximately 0.1 times adjusted earnings for the trailing twelve months.

What's Driving the Stock

  • AppLovin expects fiscal Q3 2026 revenue between $2.055 billion and $2.085 billion, equivalent to year-over-year growth of 46% to 48% and sequential growth of 7% to 8%, supported by model improvements that went live after the end of Q2.
  • Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance for fiscal Q3 2026 ranges from $1.71 billion to $1.74 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 48% to 50% and a margin of approximately 83%, and these expectations include higher training and computing costs.
  • Consumer advertiser spending in fiscal Q2 2026 rose to a level more than 28% above fiscal Q4 2025, even though Q4 represents the seasonal peak for this category, indicating that existing customers are expanding their spending before reaching the maximum possible spending level at current return targets.
  • MAX publisher earnings grew by more than 10% sequentially in fiscal Q2 2026, while AppLovin's share of publisher advertising distribution channels remained stable; management cites these two signals to refute the occurrence of weakness in advertiser demand or a material change in the competitive environment during the period.
  • The company repurchased or committed to repurchase approximately 1.14 million shares for $551 million in fiscal Q2 2026, with approximately $1.8 billion remaining under the authorization. The pace of repurchases was reduced compared with approximately $1 billion in fiscal Q1 2026 because of lower free cash flow related to the timing of taxes and interest.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +AppLovin's model combines high growth with strong profitability; fiscal Q2 2026 revenue increased 53% year over year, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 58%, with a margin exceeding 80%.
  • +E-commerce provides a scalable diversification path beyond mobile gaming, as consumer advertiser spending in fiscal Q2 2026 exceeded the fiscal Q4 2025 peak by 28%, despite the company's focus at this stage on a limited number of mid-sized brands.
  • +Liquidity and low leverage support capital allocation flexibility; liquidity totaled $3.05 billion versus $3.7 billion in debt, and net leverage was approximately 0.1 times, with $1.8 billion remaining under the share repurchase authorization.
  • +Management believes that model improvements launched after the end of fiscal Q2 2026 are reaccelerating the business and supports this view with guidance for sequential growth of 7% to 8% in fiscal Q3 2026 without assuming additional model releases that have not yet been deployed.

▼ Selling Case5 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $527.20, with a buy consensus and a wide range of $325 to $790; the highest target exceeds the top of the 52-week range of $745.61, while the lowest target is close to the bottom of the range at $297.50. This dispersion reflects significant differences in estimates of the ability of model improvements and e-commerce expansion to sustain high growth and margins exceeding 80%. The valuation assessment remains less clear because no specific price-to-earnings multiple is available, while the target reductions following the August 5, 2026 results represent a negative counterbalance to the continued buy consensus.

BuyAnalyst target: $527.2(+62.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

Why did APP shares come under pressure after the fiscal Q2 2026 results?

AppLovin reported revenue of $1.92 billion, below expectations of $1.94 billion and slightly below the midpoint of the company's guidance range. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $1.61 billion also came in below the guidance range. Management attributed the shortfall to a significant improvement in model performance arriving after the end of the quarter rather than during it. On August 6, 2026, the provided news indicated that the stock fell 20% and that analysts lowered their price targets while maintaining buy ratings.

What does AppLovin expect for fiscal Q3 2026?

The company expects revenue between $2.055 billion and $2.085 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 46% to 48% and sequential growth of 7% to 8%. It expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $1.71 billion and $1.74 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 48% to 50%. The target adjusted earnings margin is approximately 83% despite higher training and computing costs. The guidance includes model improvements that have already been deployed and does not assume the launch of additional models that have not yet gone live.

Can e-commerce reduce AppLovin's reliance on mobile gaming?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Gaming advertising still accounts for the majority of AppLovin's revenue, while the consumer sector at its current stage relies on a smaller number of higher-spending advertisers; therefore, diversification has not yet become sufficient to offset a weak quarter in the core business.
  • −AppLovin faces a structural constraint in producing advertising materials; the platform can generate the interactive end card with high efficiency, but it has not yet reached the point of reliably producing high-quality videos lasting between 30 and 60 seconds, limiting the conversion of small businesses and customers with limited spending.
  • −The company faces stronger competition on Android because a major competitor owns the Google Play platform and provides a large volume of installations and customer spending, while management also acknowledged weak awareness of the AppLovin brand among e-commerce advertisers outside the mobile gaming market.
  • −Higher model training and inference costs may cause margin volatility; computing was the primary reason for the sequential increase in costs in fiscal Q2 2026, and management expects to spend approximately $0.10 on computing for every additional dollar of revenue while targeting a long-term margin in the low-80% range.
  • −Analysts lowered their price targets after the August 5, 2026 announcement while maintaining buy ratings, and the wide target range of $325 to $790 underscores the high degree of valuation uncertainty. The broad 52-week range of $297.50 to $745.61 increases the stock's sensitivity to any new revenue or guidance shortfall, particularly because no specific price-to-earnings multiple is available in the data.
  • Gaming still accounts for the majority of revenue, but consumer advertiser spending in fiscal Q2 2026 exceeded the fiscal Q4 2025 level by 28%. AppLovin Ads Manager focuses on mid-sized brands because their data and budgets enable the models to learn and achieve return on ad spend targets better than those of smaller customers. The company is using partnerships with platforms such as Triple Whale to reach these advertisers, but the expansion is still in its early stages and the advertiser base remains more concentrated than the gaming business.

    What is the main obstacle to expanding AppLovin Ads Manager to smaller businesses?

    Management identified the production of advertising materials as the biggest obstacle to expanding the platform. AppLovin's tools can generate an interactive end card with high efficiency, but they do not yet reliably produce high-quality videos lasting between 30 and 60 seconds for every advertiser. Mid-sized and large brands are more likely to possess such materials, while many smaller companies lack them. Therefore, the transition to one-click campaigns and broad access to smaller customers depends on improving video tools or developing templates that do not require video.

    What do AppLovin's liquidity and share repurchases look like?

    AppLovin ended fiscal Q2 2026 with $3.05 billion in liquidity and $3.7 billion in total debt. Net leverage was approximately 0.1 times adjusted earnings for the trailing twelve months, compared with a long-term level that management expects to be approximately one time. During the quarter, the company repurchased or committed to repurchase approximately 1.14 million shares for $551 million, with approximately $1.8 billion remaining under the authorization. Management attributed the slower pace of repurchases compared with approximately $1 billion in fiscal Q1 2026 to free cash flow declining to $863 million because of the timing of international tax and interest payments.