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Stocks
APA Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall99
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9Better than 99% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
92
9.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
53
-12.2%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
67
2.9%▼4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
76
0.7x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
82
2.24%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
98
66.6%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
84
16▲3Top tier
APA

APA APA Corporation

APA Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Closed
44.73
▲ ⁦+0.45%⁩ (+0.20)
Market Cap$15.8B
Beta0.35
52w Low52w High
21.5746.10
Last Week
⁦+1.24%⁩
Last Month
⁦+9.04%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+18.49%⁩
Last Year
⁦+94.65%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$45
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$44
⁦-2%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$36–$62⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$118
⁦+164%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦5⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$44–$118⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$45.23
⁦+1.1%⁩
Current Price $44.73·Median $44.00
Low
$36.00
High
$62.00
Current price
$44.73
Average target
$45.23
Street summary

Consensus rises with a clear divergence among analysts

The consensus price target rose to 45.23 from 43.91 over 7 days, and to 45.23 from 42 over 30 days, an increase of 7.69% during the month. The number of analysts remained unchanged, indicating that the improvement resulted from estimate revisions rather than an expansion of the coverage base. The current price of 44.73 is close to the consensus and median of 44, while the range extends from 36 to 62, reflecting a notable dispersion in expectations.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+7.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.32
Hold
Analyst coverage
25
Buy conviction
36%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
58%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time25 analysts rating
2
7
13
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.20 → 3.32
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-07
    Goldman Sachs
    Sell
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Seaport Global
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-09-02
    Raymond James
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    9.46x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.59x
    3.36x26.89x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    3.68x
    2.12x16.98x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    13.3%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -12.2%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Weak
  • EPS Growth YoY
    58.2%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    38.0%
    7.8%72.1%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    2.9%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.67x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.2%
    0.4%10.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    21.1%
    11.9%109.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

APA Corporation is an oil and gas producer and resource developer, with its core operations focused on the Permian Basin and Egypt, alongside the GranMorgu project in Suriname and an exploration portfolio in Alaska and Uruguay. The company generates cash flow from oil and gas sales and from a gas marketing and transportation portfolio that it expects to generate approximately $950 million in pre-tax cash flow during fiscal 2026, including basis hedges. In Egypt, approximately half of gas production benefits from the amended pricing agreement, while the company aims to maintain Permian oil production at 123 thousand barrels per day during fiscal 2026 with a U.S. capital budget of $1.3 billion.

In fiscal Q2 2026, APA reported revenue of $2.4 billion, net income of $747 million, and diluted earnings per share of $2.11; after excluding an unrealized after-tax gain of $92 million related to basis hedges and other minor items, adjusted net income was $669 million and adjusted earnings per share were $1.89. The financial statements show gross profit of $26 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 1.1% of revenue, while free cash flow totaled $738 million and the company returned $189 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. During the first half of fiscal 2026, free cash flow exceeded $1.2 billion and APA repaid $752 million of notes.

On a trailing-twelve-month basis in 2026, revenue was $8.8 billion, gross profit was $3.4 billion, net income was $1.7 billion, and earnings per share were $4.73. By comparison, APA generated fiscal 2025 revenue of $8.9 billion, gross profit of $3.3 billion, net income of $1.4 billion, and earnings per share of $3.99. Its operating mix combines an established production base in the Permian and Egypt, gas marketing cash flows, and long-term growth projects led by GranMorgu, which is targeted to begin oil production in mid-2028.

What's Driving the Stock

  • APA raised its U.S. oil production guidance for fiscal 2026 from 120 thousand to 123 thousand barrels per day, while maintaining its U.S. capital budget at $1.3 billion and reducing the rig count to four in the second half of fiscal 2026; this reflects tangible improvements in drilling and completion efficiency and base-production management in the Permian.
  • The company raised its annualized realized cost-savings target at the fiscal 2026 exit rate from $450 million to $500 million and lowered lease operating expense guidance by $25 million to $1.5 billion. It also expects annualized interest expense savings of approximately $175 million by the end of fiscal 2026, bringing the total cost reduction compared with the end of 2024 to approximately $675 million.
  • Management expects free cash flow of approximately $2.3 billion during fiscal 2026 based on the price curve used in the call, after generating $738 million in Q2 and more than $1.2 billion in the first half. APA aims to return at least 60% of free cash flow to shareholders in fiscal 2026, with a significant portion of second-half returns directed toward share repurchases.
  • APA repaid $752 million of note debt during the first half of fiscal 2026, including $673 million in Q2, and net leverage stood at 0.6 times. Management expects net debt to reach $3.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2026 and then achieve its $3 billion target in 2027 based on the price curve used in the call.
  • The GranMorgu project in Suriname is progressing on budget and on schedule toward first oil in mid-2028, while APA retains a 60% working interest in Block 6 in Uruguay after ENI joined as a partner funding a significant portion of the first exploration well planned for the second half of 2027. In Alaska, the Savant Alaska acquisition added a 25-mile pipeline with capacity of 80 thousand barrels per day and processing equipment with capacity of 40 thousand barrels per day to support appraisal of the Sockeye discovery and drilling of the Chinook well in 2027.
  • In Egypt, the company expects fiscal 2026 gross production of approximately 118 thousand barrels of oil per day and 535 million cubic feet of gas per day, with oil-equivalent production guidance remaining unchanged. Approximately half of gas production benefits from the amended pricing agreement, increasing the economic value of incremental production and supporting stable cash flow from the Egyptian assets.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +APA combines production growth with improved efficiency in the Permian; it raised U.S. oil guidance to 123 thousand barrels per day from 120 thousand, with the capital budget unchanged at $1.3 billion and only four rigs in the second half of fiscal 2026, compared with an earlier post-Callon-merger estimate of eight rigs and $1.7 billion to maintain 120 thousand barrels per day.
  • +Cash generation has strengthened due to lower costs and debt; the company expects $2.3 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2026, raised its exit-rate savings target to $500 million, and repaid $752 million of notes in the first half.
  • +GranMorgu provides the company with a defined path to high-margin oil production growth beginning in mid-2028, while the partnership agreement with Total reduces APA's current capital burden. Successes in Block 58, the Sockeye and Kingstreet discoveries, and Block 6 opportunities in Uruguay add multiple potential growth sources after 2027.
  • +The commitment to return at least 60% of free cash flow annually, alongside targeting net debt of $3 billion in 2027, balances shareholder returns with balance-sheet strengthening. The company returned $189 million through dividends and repurchases in fiscal Q2 2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus on APA is "Neutral," with an average price target of $43.45 and a wide range between $36 and $50; the average is approximately 4.8% below the 52-week range high of $45.66, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 9.5%. The 52-week range extends from $21.57 to $45.66, and no displayed price-to-earnings ratio is available despite earnings per share reaching $4.73 on a trailing-twelve-month basis in 2026; the valuation therefore balances improving cash flow and debt reduction on one hand against energy-price sensitivity and execution risks for 2027–2028 projects on the other.

HoldAnalyst target: $43.45(-2.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove APA's results in fiscal Q2 2026?

APA generated revenue of $2.4 billion and net income of $747 million, or $2.11 per diluted share, in fiscal Q2 2026. After excluding an unrealized after-tax gain of $92 million related to basis hedges and other minor items, adjusted net income was $669 million and adjusted earnings per share were $1.89. Free cash flow totaled $738 million, supported by production above guidance and lower capital spending and operating costs, alongside the contribution from higher oil prices.

How did APA's efficiency in the Permian Basin improve during fiscal 2026?

The company raised U.S. oil production guidance from 120 thousand to 123 thousand barrels per day while maintaining the capital budget at $1.3 billion. It plans to operate four rigs in the second half of fiscal 2026, compared with an initial post-Callon-merger estimate of eight rigs and approximately $1.7 billion to maintain production of 120 thousand barrels per day. APA also aims to achieve Permian operating savings at a rate of $3.5 million per month by the end of fiscal 2026.

When is the GranMorgu project expected to begin production, and why is it important to APA?

APA confirms that the GranMorgu project in Suriname is progressing on budget and on schedule toward first oil in mid-2028. Management believes the project will add high-margin oil production and free cash flow growth between 2028 and 2030, while the Permian and Egyptian assets maintain the production base. The partnership agreement with Total reduces the current capital burden by having the partner fund a significant portion of the project.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −APA's results and cash flow outlook depend materially on oil and gas prices; coverage of its fiscal Q2 2026 results attributed part of the earnings beat to higher oil prices, and the $2.3 billion free cash flow estimate was based on a specific price curve. Accordingly, energy prices falling below that curve could weaken cash flow available for debt repayment, share repurchases, and exploration funding.
  • −Reported gross profit in fiscal Q2 2026 declined to only $26 million on revenue of $2.4 billion, a margin of approximately 1.1%, compared with gross profit of $1.8 billion in Q1 on revenue of $2.3 billion. The context does not explain this sharp discrepancy, making it a financial signal that warrants scrutiny even though net income reached $747 million and free cash flow totaled $738 million.
  • −In Egypt, strong production from liquids-rich gas discoveries led to the deferral of some low-pressure gas volumes at Khafre, reducing near-term gas expectations, although associated liquids almost fully offset the effect on total oil-equivalent production and free cash flow. Gross oil production in Egypt is also following a decline trajectory that management described as modest and predictable, while offsetting it depends on continued gas growth and successful development and exploration.
  • −Growth and exploration projects remain exposed to execution, geological, and schedule risks; the Block 58 exploration well was moved from late fiscal Q4 2026 to 2027, and Uruguay remains a frontier exploration area that has not been tested by a sufficiently deep well. In Alaska, management explicitly said it is too early to define a development plan before appraising Sockeye and drilling Chinook in 2027, while GranMorgu remains targeted for first oil in mid-2028.
  • −Cost savings face inflationary pressure from diesel and services in the United States; realized savings before inflation were estimated at approximately $475 million, but decline to around $425 million after accounting for inflation. The company may also need to increase exploration spending in 2027 to a range beginning in the two-hundred-million-dollar area, compared with fiscal 2026, which management described as a light year for exploration spending.
  • −No basis hedges for the gas marketing portfolio had been placed for fiscal 2027 as of the August 6, 2026 call, despite the company expecting this portfolio to generate approximately $950 million in pre-tax cash flow in fiscal 2026, including hedges. Insider activity also recorded net sales of 392,392 shares over the three months through the latest transaction on May 20, 2026, with no purchases and one sale; this is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless otherwise indicated.
What is APA's plan for reducing debt and returning capital to shareholders?

APA repaid $752 million of notes in the first half of fiscal 2026, including $673 million in Q2, and net leverage reached 0.6 times. Management expects net debt to total $3.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2026 and to reach its $3 billion target in 2027 based on the price curve used in the call. At the same time, the company remains committed to returning at least 60% of free cash flow annually through dividends and share repurchases.

What exploration opportunities does APA have in Alaska and Uruguay during 2027?

In Alaska, APA plans to drill the Hungry Horse appraisal well during 2027 to determine the extent of the Sockeye discovery and the Chinook exploration well targeting a larger independent structure, after the Savant Alaska acquisition added infrastructure including a 25-mile pipeline with capacity of 80 thousand barrels per day. Management estimated the cost of the two wells at approximately $100 to $120 million, in addition to approximately $20 million spent during fiscal 2026 on ice roads. In Uruguay, APA retains a 60% interest in Block 6 after ENI joined and plans a well in the second half of 2027 to test targets deeper than the Raya-1 well, with ENI bearing a significant portion of the well cost.

What are the main risks that could disrupt APA's free cash flow outlook?

The $2.3 billion free cash flow estimate for fiscal 2026 depends on the energy-price curve used in the August 6, 2026 call, so results remain sensitive to declines in oil and gas prices. Operational risks include the deferral of some low-pressure Khafre gas volumes, the shift of the Block 58 well to 2027, and diesel and services inflation that reduced the impact of realized savings from approximately $475 million to around $425 million. Exploration in Uruguay also remains frontier in nature, and APA had not placed fiscal 2027 basis hedges as of the call date.