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Stocks
A. O. Smith Corporation
AOS

AOS A. O. Smith Corporation

A. O. Smith Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
57.39
▲ ⁦+1.20%⁩ (+0.68)
Market Cap$8.0B
Beta1.16
52w Low52w High
54.1681.86
Last Week
⁦-3.16%⁩
Last Month
⁦-10.30%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-0.40%⁩
Last Year
⁦-20.71%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall74
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 7/8SafeBetter than 74% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
71
15.9x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
30
0.4%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
86
22.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
85
0.7x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
52
2.45%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
19
-13.2%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
82
10▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$57
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$70
⁦+22%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$67–$75⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$62
⁦+8%⁩
Sees it undervalued
⁦9.5⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$62–$70⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$70.50
⁦+22.8%⁩
Current Price $57.39·Median $70.00
Low
$67.00
High
$75.00
Current price
$57.39
Average target
$70.50
Street summary

Forecast Stability Analysis for A. O. Smith (AOS)

A. O. Smith stock shows a state of complete stability in analyst estimates over recent periods (1, 7, and 30 days), as the average target price settled at 72.67 dollars without any significant adjustments. This consistency reflects the absence of new catalysts or substantial revisions by analysts following the stock recently, with a positive price gap compared to the current price of 57.28 dollars.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.23
Hold
Analyst coverage
13
Buy conviction
38%
Target dispersion
14%
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
1
4
6
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.23 → 3.23
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-05-04
    D.A. Davidson
    —· $67.00
  • = Reiterate2026-05-01
    Stifel Nicolaus
    —· $75.00
  • = Reiterate2026-05-01
    Robert W. Baird
    —· $70.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    15.94x
    5.69x45.54x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.28x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    11.10x
    3.43x27.47x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.1%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    0.4%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    0.3%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    38.6%
    8.6%54.6%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    22.2%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.67x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.4%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    39.6%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    6.02
    -5.667.97
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

A. O. Smith Corporation manufactures and markets water heaters, boilers, and water treatment products, with its primary operations in North America and businesses in China, India, and other international markets. Revenue comes from residential and commercial water heaters, residential and commercial boilers, water treatment channels, and Leonard Valve, which expands the company’s capabilities in water management and digital controls. In Q2 FY2026, North America represented approximately 81% of segment sales, with sales of $821 million, compared with $195 million for the Rest of World segment.

In Q2 FY2026, the company reported revenue of $1.0 billion and gross profit of $387.8 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 38.8%. Net income was $124.9 million, or $0.91 per share according to EDGAR data, while adjusted earnings per share were $1.03 according to the earnings call. North America sales increased 5%, or 3% organically excluding Leonard Valve, but the segment’s adjusted margin declined 100 basis points to 24.4% due to higher steel, input, and tariff costs.

The business mix showed a clear divergence in Q2 FY2026: North America boiler sales increased 21% and water heater sales in the region increased 2%, while water treatment sales declined 2%. In contrast, Rest of World segment sales fell 19%, and China sales declined 28% in local currency, reducing segment earnings to $10 million and its margin to 5.2%. On a trailing twelve-month basis in 2026, revenue was $3.8 billion, gross profit was $1.5 billion, and net income was $500.3 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Boiler strength lifted North America results in Q2 FY2026, with sales growing 21% and first-half growth reaching 12%, driven by commercial demand, early-buy programs, and continued momentum in residential boilers. Management maintained its forecast for boiler sales growth of between 6% and 8% in FY2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Leonard Valve contributed sales of $16 million in Q2 FY2026, and the company targets approximately $70 million in sales from it during FY2026, with double-digit annual growth. This addition supports the development of a water management platform and expands digital control capabilities, but it also increased net debt to $456 million after financing the transaction.
  • The business generated free cash flow of $233 million in the first half of FY2026, an increase of 67%, due to working capital management despite lower earnings. This result prompted the company to raise its FY2026 share repurchase target by 50%, from $200 million to $300 million, after spending $162 million to repurchase approximately 2.6 million shares during the first half.
  • The company continues to invest in tankless water heaters, heat pump technology, and water treatment innovation. It is also developing uses for artificial intelligence in order management, warranty processing, and technical service, but management said on July 30, 2026 that these programs remain at an early stage and that it has not yet quantified any financial savings from them.
  • Management lowered the upper end of its FY2026 outlook to sales growth of between 2% and 3% and adjusted earnings per share of between $3.70 and $3.85, compared with previous ranges of 2% to 4% and $3.70 to $4.00. The revision reflects continued weakness in the North America residential water heater market, with industry volumes expected to decline by a low-single-digit percentage.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The replacement-driven nature of the North America water heater market provides a degree of resilience, as replacement demand represents approximately 80% to 85% of industry demand. Management stated that emergency replacement demand remained stable, while the company made progress in stabilizing its market share within the wholesale channel.
    • +The boiler business is showing stronger momentum than the rest of the portfolio, with sales growth of 21% in Q2 FY2026 and 12% in the first half, while commercial orders and quoting activity remained healthy. This provides the company with a growth driver that partially offsets weakness in residential water heaters and China.
    • +Liquidity supports the company’s ability to combine investment with capital returns, as free cash flow increased 67% to $233 million in the first half of FY2026. The board also approved a quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share, and the company raised its annual repurchase target to $300 million.
    • +Water treatment efficiency could improve beginning in 2027, as initiatives to optimize the operating footprint and simplify the brand portfolio target annual savings of between $6 million and $8 million. This comes alongside Leonard Valve’s targeted contribution of approximately $70 million in sales in FY2026.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −China represents the largest visible source of operating pressure, as its sales declined 28% in local currency in Q2 FY2026 amid weak demand, particularly in the premium category. As a result, Rest of World segment sales fell 19%, its earnings declined to $10 million, and its margin fell to 5.2%, while management expects China sales to decline by a low-double-digit percentage during FY2026.
    • −Demand for residential water heaters in North America remained weaker than management expected due to weak new construction and existing home sales, prompting it to narrow its industry volume outlook to a low-single-digit decline. Proactive replacement, which represents approximately 30% of total replacement demand, is also more sensitive to consumer spending than emergency replacement.
    • −Margins are under pressure from higher steel and other input costs, as steel costs increased approximately 20% year over year in Q2 FY2026 and North America’s adjusted margin declined 100 basis points to 24.4%. The company expects steel costs in FY2026 to be approximately 15% higher than in 2025, with additional pressure from freight, diesel, foams, plastics, and tariffs.
    • −Q2 FY2026 benefited from early-buy programs and customer purchases ahead of price increases, which pulled some demand expected in Q3 into Q2. Management therefore expects earnings per share in Q3 to be lower than in Q2 and Q4, with the full effect of the 4% to 7% water heater and boiler price increases not materializing until Q4.
    • −The wholesale channel faces competition and pressure from weak construction and a shift of some activity toward retail channels, while management noted moves by competitors and the entry of new participants into the market. Despite the company’s progress in regaining share within wholesale, lower volumes make competition more intense, and North America water treatment sales declined 2% during Q2 FY2026.
    • −The neutral analyst consensus and the absence of a collective buy recommendation reflect caution regarding the balance between strong cash flow and weakness in China and residential demand. The average target of $70.5 lies within the 52-week range of $54.16 to $81.87, with the lowest target at $67 and the highest at $75, placing the entire range of estimates below the stock’s annual high of $81.87.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on AOS is neutral, with an average price target of $70.5 and a range of $67 to $75. The average is approximately 13.9% below the 52-week range high of $81.87, and even the highest target remains below that peak, consistent with a reassessment that accounts for the 28% decline in China in local currency, margin pressure, and the lowered upper end of the FY2026 outlook.

    HoldAnalyst target: $70.5(+22.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What were A. O. Smith’s key results in Q2 FY2026?

    Revenue was $1.0 billion, gross profit was $387.8 million, and net income was $124.9 million. Earnings per share according to EDGAR data were $0.91, while adjusted earnings per share were $1.03 in management’s presentation dated July 30, 2026. North America sales increased 5% to $821 million, while Rest of World segment sales declined 19% to $195 million.

    Why did A. O. Smith lower its FY2026 outlook?

    The company lowered the upper end of its expected sales growth from 4% to 3%, resulting in a range of 2% to 3%. It also lowered the upper end of adjusted earnings per share from $4.00 to $3.85, while maintaining the lower end at $3.70. The revision was primarily due to continued weakness in North America residential water heaters because of sluggish new construction and existing home sales, while assumptions for boilers, China, India, and Leonard Valve remained materially unchanged.

    How important is Leonard Valve to AOS’s results?

    Leonard Valve contributed sales of $16 million in Q2 FY2026. A. O. Smith targets approximately $70 million in sales from it in FY2026, with double-digit growth, and is using the transaction to expand its water management platform and digital control capabilities. In contrast, financing the acquisition contributed to net debt reaching $456 million and the total debt-to-capital ratio reaching 25.7% at the end of the quarter.

    How significant is A. O. Smith’s China problem?

    China sales declined 28% in local currency in Q2 FY2026 due to weak consumer demand, particularly in the premium category. This caused Rest of World segment sales to fall 19% and its earnings to decline to $10 million, with its margin falling to 5.2%. Management expects China sales to decline by a low-double-digit percentage in FY2026 and said on July 30, 2026 that all options related to the strategic review of the business remain under consideration.

    Can price increases protect AOS’s margins from inflation?

    The company announced increases of between 4% and 7% for water heater and boiler products, with their impact beginning to materialize around the middle of Q3 FY2026 before the full benefit appears in Q4. However, steel costs increased approximately 20% year over year in Q2, and management expects them to be approximately 15% higher during FY2026 compared with 2025. The company therefore expects an approximately neutral price-cost relationship in the second half, with freight, foams, plastics, and tariffs continuing to pressure margins.

    What supports A. O. Smith’s cash flow and capital returns?

    The company generated free cash flow of $233 million in the first half of FY2026, an increase of 67% from 2025, driven by working capital management despite lower earnings. By the end of Q2, it had $181 million in cash and had repurchased approximately 2.6 million shares for $162 million during the first half. It raised its FY2026 share repurchase target from $200 million to $300 million, and the board also approved a quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share.