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Stocks
Ameresco, Inc.
AMRC

AMRC Ameresco, Inc.

Ameresco, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
23.78
▲ ⁦+4.34%⁩ (+0.99)
Market Cap$1.2B
Beta2.62
52w Low52w High
18.5844.93
Last Week
⁦+8.98%⁩
Last Month
⁦-7.29%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-31.27%⁩
Last Year
⁦-5.97%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall19
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketSucker StockF 4/8DistressInsider cluster buyBetter than 19% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
38
44.9x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
53
8.9%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
20
5.0%▲4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
36
3.2x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
16
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
27
4.1%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
90
8▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$24
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$36
⁦+51%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$36–$62⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$44.67
⁦+87.8%⁩
Current Price $23.78·Median $36.00
Low
$36.00
High
$62.00
Current price
$23.78
Average target
$44.67
Street summary

Limited Divergence in AMRC Price Targets

The consensus price target rose to 44.67 from 43 over the past day and two weeks, an increase of 3.88%, while the number of analysts remained at three. However, compared with 30 days ago, the consensus declined from 45.25 to 44.67, a decrease of 1.28%, indicating short-term improvement within a slightly weaker monthly trend.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.75
Buy
Analyst coverage
12
Buy conviction
67%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
109%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time12 analysts rating
1
7
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.67 → 3.75
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-27
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    Oppenheimer
    Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    44.87x
    5.69x45.54x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    19.81x
    4.57x36.58x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.59x
    3.43x27.47x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -35.3%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Weak
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.9%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -55.1%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    16.1%
    8.6%54.6%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    5.0%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.23x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.11
    -5.667.97
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-03 data

Company Overview

Ameresco develops, implements, owns, and operates energy infrastructure, and has reorganized its business around two pillars: Power Infrastructure and Building & Public Infrastructure. The company generates revenue from engineering, procurement, and construction EPC projects, from the energy assets it operates, and from long-term operations and maintenance O&M contracts; its solutions include on-site generation, microgrids, solar energy, battery storage systems, reciprocating engines, gas turbines, and fuel cells. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, project revenue represented $381 million of total revenue of $515.5 million, while energy asset revenue reached $76 million, with O&M revenue growing 29% year over year.

Ameresco recorded gross profit of $91.3 million and a gross margin of 17.7% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, compared with net income of $9.7 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.18. Total revenue grew 9% year over year, project revenue increased 6%, and adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $62.8 million, meaning adjusted operating profit growth outpaced revenue growth. Data for the twelve months ended in 2026 show revenue of $1.9 billion, gross profit of $305.5 million, and net income of $22.8 million.

The recurring revenue base expanded as the portfolio of operating energy assets grew to 822 megawatts, with an additional 513 megawatts under development or construction, based on Ameresco's 70% interest in Neogenyx. The company also provides services to more than 2.5 gigawatts of third-party-owned solar and battery storage assets, and its long-term O&M backlog exceeded $1.5 billion. During the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the company placed an additional 32 megawatts into operation, commissioned the 250-megawatt Napanee battery energy storage system, and activated a 560-megawatt solar project in Greece.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Ameresco achieved a record $1.8 billion in new awards in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, including $1.2 billion for data centers and $600 million for its other markets; this increased awarded project backlog by 65% to $4.4 billion and total project backlog by 32% to $6.7 billion.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The company added three new data center projects, bringing its awarded backlog to five projects alongside the Lemoore data center in its energy asset portfolio; together, these projects represent more than one gigawatt of generation capacity and extend into Texas and Arizona. Management indicated that the value of existing awards associated with these opportunities could reach $2 billion as the development of phases and scopes is completed.
  • The data center business supports a significant growth opportunity, but it is relatively far out in time: management expects awards to convert into contracts within 6 to 24 months, followed by project execution over a period of up to three years, with the main revenue impact expected between 2028 and 2030. This business will be recognized as EPC revenue based on percentage of completion, with margins that management expects to be in the high teens, followed by a potential opportunity for O&M contracts.
  • Ameresco closed the Neogenyx joint venture with HASI and secured $471 million in new financing commitments during the second quarter of fiscal 2026, including $400 million related to the transaction. Unrestricted cash increased to $138 million, providing capital to support growth, working capital, and expansion of the energy asset portfolio.
  • Management reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance for all metrics and raised the non-GAAP earnings per share range to $1.15–$1.35, benefiting from an expected tax benefit at a rate of 25%–40%. Net insider buying of $1.9 million during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 28, 2026, through 13 purchases and no sales, also provides a positive alignment signal alongside operating momentum.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The total project backlog of $6.7 billion provides visibility extending, according to management, three to four years, while the O&M backlog exceeding $1.5 billion adds a recurring component that is more resilient across economic cycles.
    • +The data center expansion combines more than one gigawatt of scale with technological diversity that includes reciprocating engines, gas turbines, fuel cells, batteries, and microgrids; across these projects, the company works with developers, operators, hyperscalers, neoclouds, and capital providers.
    • +The quality of the second-quarter fiscal 2026 results improved, with gross margin reaching 17.7% and adjusted EBITDA rising 12% versus revenue growth of 9%, while net income shifted from a loss of $18.3 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 to a profit of $9.7 million.
    • +The commissioning of the 250-megawatt Napanee project and the 560-megawatt solar project in Greece strengthens the execution track record, while the operating energy asset base expanded to 822 megawatts and the O&M business serves more than 2.5 gigawatts of third-party assets.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The large data center projects remain in awarded backlog and are not final contracts, and their conversion into contracted backlog may take 6 to 24 months, after which execution may extend for three years; therefore, the value of the awarded backlog depends on completing commercial stages, permitting, procurement, financing, and execution.
    • −Infrastructure projects face risks from equipment supply bottlenecks, site permits, gas supply, zoning restrictions, and tenant requirements, and Ameresco had not placed equipment purchase orders for the data center projects as of the August 3, 2026 call because they were still at the award stage.
    • −According to management, the main financial impact of the data center projects will be concentrated between 2028 and 2030, with potentially only a limited impact before then; this trajectory makes the growth thesis dependent on converting long-cycle awards and executing multiphase projects without material delays.
    • −Adjusted cash flow from operations in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 was affected by work performed before contractual billing milestones were reached, resulting in a temporary working-capital cash outflow. The company's debt stood at $385 million and its leverage at 3.2 times, only a relatively narrow margin below the 3.5 times covenant limit, increasing the importance of collections and financing discipline as the company expands.
    • −The increase in fiscal 2026 non-GAAP earnings per share guidance to $1.15–$1.35 depends partly on an expected tax benefit at a rate of 25%–40% and on the planned transition to a new accounting policy for transferable tax credits. Prior-period results will be recast for comparison after the policy is adopted, so the entire increase does not reflect an underlying operating improvement.
    • −The 52-week range extends from $18.38 to $44.93, meaning the upper end is approximately 144% above the lower end, revealing high volatility in the stock's valuation. With no displayed price-to-earnings multiple available, it is difficult to separate what investors are paying for operating growth from the effects of tax and accounting gains and fluctuations in net income.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $43, within a wide range of $36 to $62, with a consensus rating of “Buy”; the average is approximately 4% below the 52-week high of $44.93, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 38%. The breadth of the targets reflects a meaningful difference in estimates of how quickly the data center backlog will convert into contracts and revenue between 2028 and 2030. No displayed price-to-earnings multiple is available as an additional anchor, which is important because net income for the twelve months ended in 2026 was $22.8 million and because the increase in earnings per share guidance includes an expected tax benefit and a planned accounting change.

    BuyAnalyst target: $43(+80.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving Ameresco's growth in fiscal 2026?

    The primary driver is the record $1.8 billion in new awards recorded in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, including $1.2 billion for data centers. This increased awarded backlog by 65% to $4.4 billion and total project backlog by 32% to $6.7 billion. Alongside projects, energy asset revenue grew 21% to $76 million, while O&M revenue increased 29%. Adjusted EBITDA also rose 12% to $62.8 million, outpacing revenue growth of 9%.

    When could the data center projects convert into revenue for AMRC?

    Management said on the August 3, 2026 call that converting data center awards into contracts could take 6 to 24 months. After contracting, execution could extend from one to three years depending on the size of the power plant and the number of campus phases. The company expects a potentially limited impact before 2028, while the main impact is likely to appear between 2028 and 2030. Revenue will be recognized as EPC revenue based on percentage of completion, rather than as gains from asset sales.

    How large is Ameresco's exposure to the data center market?

    Ameresco has five data center projects in awarded backlog, in addition to the Lemoore project in its energy asset portfolio. The awarded projects collectively represent more than one gigawatt of generation, following the addition of three projects in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and the expansion of its presence into Texas and Arizona. The solutions include reciprocating engines, gas turbines, fuel cells, battery systems, and microgrids, with hyperscalers and neoclouds among the transaction parties. Management estimated that awards associated with the existing opportunities could increase from $1.2 billion to $2 billion as their scopes develop.

    How did Ameresco's profitability change between the first and second quarters of fiscal 2026?

    Revenue in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 reached approximately $515.5 million, compared with $401.5 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Net income shifted from a loss of $18.3 million and negative earnings per share of $0.35 to a profit of $9.7 million and earnings per share of $0.18. Gross profit increased from $56.5 million to $91.3 million, with a reported gross margin of 17.7% in the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA also reached $62.8 million, a year-over-year increase of 12%.

    What is the significance of Neogenyx and the operations and maintenance portfolio to the AMRC thesis?

    Ameresco closed the Neogenyx joint venture with HASI during the second quarter of fiscal 2026, and $400 million of the total $471 million in new financing commitments was related to this transaction. After accounting for Ameresco's 70% interest in Neogenyx, operating energy assets reached 822 megawatts, with an additional 513 megawatts under development or construction. The company also serves more than 2.5 gigawatts of third-party solar and battery assets. The long-term O&M backlog exceeded $1.5 billion, and the data center projects could add operations and maintenance contracts after construction is completed.