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Home
Stocks
Amcor plc
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall86
Excellent — top fifth of the marketTurnaroundF 8/9DistressBetter than 86% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
82
17.8x17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
88
35.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
43
6.3%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
42
4.1x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
86
6.11%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
61
14.6%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
72
9▲3Top tier
AMCR

AMCR Amcor plc

Amcor plc · NYSE
Market Closed
42.32
▼ ⁦-1.57%⁩ (-0.68)
Market Cap$19.6B
Beta0.59
52w Low52w High
36.2550.94
Last Week
⁦-9.34%⁩
Last Month
⁦-10.72%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+10.87%⁩
Last Year
⁦+3.35%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$42
Analyst target · 9 analysts
$47
⁦+11%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$43–$56⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$27
⁦-36%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$27–$47⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 9 analysts setting price target
$48.38
⁦+14.3%⁩
Current Price $42.32·Median $47.00
Low
$43.00
High
$56.00
Current price
$42.32
Average target
$48.38
Street summary

Amcor (AMCR) Price Target Review

Amcor (AMCR) stock has seen a slight improvement in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus rising by 1.87% to reach 48.38. This movement reflects cautious optimism supported by positive coverage from UBS and a reaffirmed "Buy" rating from Citigroup in August 2026. However, there is a clear divergence in analyst opinions following Jefferies' downgrade of the stock to "Hold" in July, indicating a split regarding the attractiveness of the current price compared to fair value.

As of 2026-08-20
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.57
Buy
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
31%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
1
6
7
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.92 → 3.57
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-14
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-11
    UBS
    Buy
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-07-21
    Jefferies
    BuyHold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    17.78x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    9.63x
    3.79x30.29x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.93x
    2.75x22.03x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.3%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    35.1%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    50.5%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    20.0%
    12.0%66.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    6.3%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.13x
    0.65x5.48x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    6.1%
    0.1%5.9%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    108.0%
    8.9%99.8%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.35
    -2.656.14
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-12 data

Company Overview

Amcor plc operates globally in consumer product packaging solutions, and its revenue model is based on selling flexible and rigid packaging and products such as bottles, closures, pumps, and specialized packaging solutions. Its core portfolio is concentrated in nutrition, healthcare, beauty and wellness, and specialty applications, including the protein, liquids, foodservice, and pet care categories; the six focus categories represented more than 50% of core portfolio sales in Q4 fiscal 2026.

In Q4 fiscal 2026, revenue reached $6.4 billion, gross profit was $1.3 billion, and net income was $389 million, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of approximately 20.3% and a net margin of approximately 6.1%. Net sales increased 26% year over year, while net income reversed from a loss of $39 million in the comparable period, and adjusted earnings per share reached $1.23, up 23%.

Fiscal 2026 revenue reached approximately $23.5 billion, gross profit was $4.7 billion, net income was $1.1 billion, and earnings per share according to EDGAR filings were approximately $2.38, while management reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.02, up 13%. The core portfolio generated annual sales of $21 billion and an operating profit margin of 12.7%, while its quarterly sales reached $5.7 billion out of a total of $6.4 billion; Flexible Packaging Solutions segment sales increased 16% and Rigid Packaging Solutions segment sales increased 35% on a constant-currency basis, driven primarily by the inclusion of the Berry business and the pass-through of higher raw material costs.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The Berry acquisition is the largest driver of the change in Amcor's scale, as it, together with an additional month of earnings from the acquired business, helped lift Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue to $6.4 billion, while also expanding the product range, geographic reach, and cross-selling opportunities.
  • The company achieved merger synergies of $115 million in Q4 fiscal 2026 and $285 million for the full fiscal year, approximately 10% ahead of the first-year target, while maintaining its goal of achieving $650 million over three years.
  • Amcor secured growth contracts with an annual value of approximately $140 million, half of its initial target of $280 million over three years, by combining Amcor and Berry products, geographic expansion, and cross-selling; management expects each contract to take approximately 12 to 15 months to reach a full revenue cycle.
  • Volumes improved by approximately 200 basis points compared with Q3 fiscal 2026, increasing approximately 1% on a comparable basis in flexible packaging and 0.5% in rigid packaging. The improvement was broad-based, with strength in foodservice, pet care, and protein, while July 2026 momentum continued at a level consistent with the previous quarter.
  • Management expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1.80 and $1.90 for the six-month period ending December 31, 2026, supported by a positive impact of between $0.13 and $0.21 from synergies and operating performance. It also targets double-digit growth in adjusted earnings per share during calendar year 2027, with leverage reaching approximately three times by the end of 2027.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Fiscal 2026 results show that the Berry integration has begun translating into actual earnings, as first-year synergy targets were exceeded and annual adjusted earnings per share increased 13% to $4.02, while the $650 million synergy target remains in place.
  • +Volumes improved in both flexible and rigid packaging during Q4 fiscal 2026, and the foodservice, pet care, and protein categories delivered strong growth, while synergies helped lift the rigid packaging operating profit margin by 180 basis points to 12.3%.
  • +The growth contracts with an annual value of $140 million provide an additional revenue path beyond cost reductions, including expanding a customer relationship in Mexico to add closures from Berry's expertise to its products, alongside a contract related to GLP-1 products across multiple regions and formats.
  • +The company generated free cash flow of $1.3 billion in fiscal 2026 after funding $290 million of restructuring and integration costs related to Berry, and the board approved quarterly dividends of $0.65 per share, with a modest increase from the previous year.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $48.38, a high of $56, and a low of $43; the average is approximately 5% below the 52-week range high of $50.94, while the high target exceeds that peak. The breadth of the targets compared with the 52-week range of $36.25 to $50.94 indicates differing estimates regarding the pace of achieving Berry synergies and the recovery in cash flow, and the provided data does not allow the assessment to be based on a fixed price-to-earnings multiple.

BuyAnalyst target: $48.38(+14.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove AMCR's results growth in Q4 fiscal 2026?

Amcor's revenue reached approximately $6.4 billion, up 26% year over year, and net income was $389 million compared with a loss of $39 million in the comparable period. Growth came primarily from the Berry acquisition, an additional month of earnings from the acquired business, and the pass-through of higher raw material costs. The company also achieved $115 million in merger synergies during the quarter, and volumes improved by approximately 200 basis points compared with Q3 fiscal 2026.

What is the expected amount of synergies from the Berry integration?

Amcor achieved synergies of $285 million during fiscal 2026, including $115 million in Q4, exceeding the first-year target by approximately 10%. Management maintains a total target of $650 million over three years, with the necessary actions and most of the target expected to be completed by the end of 2027. In addition to cost reductions, the company secured growth contracts with an annual value of approximately $140 million against an initial target of $280 million over three years.

What is Amcor's outlook for the six-month period ending December 31, 2026?

Management expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1.80 and $1.90 during the six-month period ending December 31, 2026. The outlook includes a positive impact of between $0.13 and $0.21 from synergies and operating performance, offset by a negative impact of between $0.10 and $0.12 from higher interest and taxes, and a negative impact of $0.04 from divestitures. The company assumes that volumes will be flat or only slightly higher, with leverage expected to be between 3.5 and 3.6 times at the end of the period.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The demand environment remains low-growth; management's assumption for the six-month period ending December 31, 2026 is for volumes to be flat or only slightly higher, while healthcare volumes declined because of weakness in lower-margin medical categories, and liquids and beauty and wellness volumes remained stable in Q4 fiscal 2026.
  • −Fiscal 2026 free cash flow came in at $1.3 billion, approximately $200 million below the company's guidance range, following higher inventory and accounts receivable and accelerated integration spending. The improvement plan depends on recovering more than $500 million within 12 months from working capital effects related to the Middle East conflict and working capital optimization measures, making the timing of collections an important risk factor.
  • −Leverage reached 3.5 times at the end of Q4 fiscal 2026, and the company expects a range of between 3.5 and 3.6 times on December 31, 2026 before targeting approximately three times by the end of 2027. Its reduction depends on continued growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, working capital recovery, and strong cash flow generation.
  • −The outlook for the six-month period ending December 31, 2026 includes a negative impact of $0.10 to $0.12 per share from higher interest and taxes, in addition to a negative impact of $0.04 from completed divestitures. These two factors may limit the extent to which merger synergies translate into earnings per share growth during the transition period.
  • −The Middle East conflict, volatility in resin supplies, and raw material costs remain sources of operational exposure, after the working capital impact related to the conflict increased from an initial estimate of $300 million to approximately $500 million. Amcor passed through approximately $280 million of cost inflation to customers in Q4 fiscal 2026, but maintaining the balance between price and cost depends on supply chain stability and customers' ability to absorb price adjustments.
  • −The wide range of analyst targets between $43 and $56 reflects a meaningful divergence in estimates of the value of synergies and volume growth, while the provided data does not include a fixed price-to-earnings multiple that can be used to verify valuation attractiveness. Price and mix, excluding raw material pass-through, also had a negative impact of 1% due to factors including competitive dynamics and winning back business.
  • Why was free cash flow weaker than Amcor's expectations in fiscal 2026?

    Free cash flow reached $1.3 billion, approximately $200 million below the company's guidance range. The shortfall came primarily from higher inventory and accounts receivable due to the Middle East conflict, alongside accelerated integration spending, after funding $290 million of restructuring and integration costs related to Berry. Management targets the recovery of more than $500 million within 12 months, with approximately $100 million to $300 million expected to be recovered during the six-month period ending December 31, 2026.

    Which Amcor business categories showed the strongest growth in Q4 fiscal 2026?

    Foodservice, pet care, and protein recorded strong volume growth, while liquids and beauty and wellness remained stable. In protein, management said Moda equipment began supporting new configurations that drive related consumables sales. Healthcare volumes declined because of lower-margin medical categories, but the company recorded progress in higher-margin pharmaceutical products such as nasal, ophthalmic, and inhalation devices, alongside a contract related to GLP-1 products and expansion in India and Asia.

    How does Amcor protect its margins from raw material inflation?

    The company passed through approximately $280 million of higher costs to customers in Q4 fiscal 2026, offsetting most of the inflation it faced. The adjusted operating profit margin for flexible packaging was 15.1%, while the rigid packaging margin increased by 180 basis points to 12.3%. The outlook for the six-month period ending December 31, 2026 assumes that pricing will continue to offset inflation, with the outcome remaining linked to developments in resin supplies and the Middle East conflict.