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Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
ALRM

ALRM Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
55.36
▲ ⁦+0.34%⁩ (+0.19)
Market Cap$2.7B
Beta0.76
52w Low52w High
41.4959.38
Last Week
⁦-2.10%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.77%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+22.72%⁩
Last Year
⁦-5.40%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall92
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 8/9Better than 92% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
46
24.4x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
57
8.7%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
83
6.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
80
0.5x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
92
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
72
-1.4%▼2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
39
5▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$55
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$63
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$60–$65⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$82
⁦+48%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$63–$82⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$62.50
⁦+12.9%⁩
Current Price $55.36·Median $62.50
Low
$60.00
High
$65.00
Current price
$55.36
Average target
$62.50
Street summary

Alarm.com (ALRM) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

Alarm.com (ALRM) stock has seen a clear bullish trend from analysts over the past 30 days, with the average price target rising from $55 in mid-July to $62.5 currently, an increase of 13.64%. This rise reflects growing confidence, especially with Raymond James confirming a "Strong Buy" rating on August 7, 2026, which led to the recent upward revision of the consensus price. The forecast range is characterized by low dispersion (between $60 and $65), indicating a consensus among analysts covering the stock regarding its fair value.

As of 2026-08-14
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.33
Hold
Analyst coverage
6
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Target dispersion
9%
Analyst ratings over time6 analysts rating
1
2
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.29 → 3.33
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    Raymond James
    Strong Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-08
    Barclays
    —· $55.00
  • = Reiterate2026-02-20
    Barclays
    —· $50.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    24.39x
    6.87x54.92x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    19.38x
    5.19x41.53x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    18.72x
    4.52x36.15x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.0%
    -54.8%10.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.7%
    -18.1%66.5%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -4.6%
    -155.3%193.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    65.8%
    12.9%79.5%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    6.0%
    -63.6%26.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.51x
    0.26x3.22x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Alarm.com provides a cloud-based platform for security and connected property management through a network of service providers, combining recurring software-as-a-service and license revenue with hardware sales. Its core growth drivers include residential security, the OpenEye video surveillance platform for commercial facilities, EnergyHub software for managing distributed energy resources, and the international business, which surpassed one million active subscriber accounts in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Its indirect model relies on partners for customer acquisition and support, while the company invests heavily in research and development to connect high-margin services to devices that typically remain in service for approximately a decade.

In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, software-as-a-service and license revenue reached $188.8 million, up 11.1% year over year, while hardware and other revenue totaled approximately $89 million, up 5.5%; implying total quarterly revenue of approximately $277.8 million. The company generated generally accepted accounting principles net income of approximately $24.2 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, compared with approximately $34.6 million a year earlier, while adjusted net income increased 17% to $41.1 million and adjusted earnings per share increased 24% to $0.77. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $57.7 million, up 15.7%, with a margin of 20.8% that improved by approximately 115 basis points.

The composition of the second quarter of fiscal 2026 reflects a balance between recurring income and hardware growth: growth initiatives in the commercial, EnergyHub, and international businesses represented approximately 35% of revenue and grew collectively by more than 30% year over year, contributing approximately 900 basis points to the growth rate. Hardware recorded a stronger mix due to elevated enterprise demand for commercial video and activity related to low-carbon and renewable fuel credits at EnergyHub, lifting its gross margin by 180 basis points year over year and enabling its gross profit to cover slightly more than 70% of sales and marketing expenses.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Alarm.com raised its software-as-a-service and license revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 to a range of $754.0–754.4 million, equivalent to growth of approximately 9.4% at the midpoint, after the second-quarter result exceeded the midpoint of its previous guidance by approximately $3.2 million.
  • The company raised its total revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 to $1.079–1.089 billion, including $325–335 million from hardware and other revenue; the midpoint of its hardware guidance is approximately $15 million above its May 2026 guidance, supported by enterprise demand for OpenEye.
  • The commercial initiatives, EnergyHub, and international business collectively grew by more than 30% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and now represent approximately 35% of revenue; the international business also surpassed one million active accounts through partners in more than 70 countries.
  • EnergyHub expanded the use of its platform during the July 2026 heat wave, as utilities executed more than 300 demand-response events across more than 30 states and the province of Ontario, shifting 17.5 gigawatt-hours of electricity consumption. Management estimates EnergyHub's penetration at only approximately 2% of the addressable North American market, with the platform connecting vehicles, chargers, batteries, and thermostats.
  • Alarm.com launched a commercial fire alarm communicator for a market it estimates at approximately 4–5 million fire panels in the United States and Canada, with nearly 3,000 potential service providers within its network. The number of installed units approached 1,000 during the first two to three weeks after launch, and the recurring service revenue per building is approximately twice the average monthly revenue of a typical residential account.
  • The company raised its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance for fiscal 2026 to $221–223 million, an increase of approximately $6.5 million at the midpoint from its previous guidance, and also raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance to $2.92–2.94.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The recurring revenue base demonstrates clear resilience; revenue retention remained in the 95% range for the third consecutive quarter, while software-as-a-service and license revenue grew 11.1% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and exceeded the midpoint of guidance by approximately $3.2 million.
  • +Growth sources beyond the core residential business are expanding, as the commercial initiatives, EnergyHub, and international business represented approximately 35% of revenue and grew by more than 30% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with strong enterprise demand for OpenEye's AI-powered services.
  • +Operating profitability improved alongside growth; adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 15.7% to $57.7 million, and its margin expanded by 115 basis points to 20.8%, while management raised its annual guidance to $221–223 million.
  • +Liquidity supports capital allocation and investment; the company ended the second quarter of fiscal 2026 with $479.4 million in cash and generated $37 million in free cash flow, while also repurchasing approximately 570 thousand shares for $25 million during the quarter under a $150 million authorization.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Software-as-a-service and license revenue growth is slowing under the third-quarter fiscal 2026 guidance to approximately 8.3% at the midpoint of the $189.8–190.0 million range, compared with actual growth of 11.1% in the second quarter; the fiscal 2026 guidance of 9.4% is also below the pace of the latest quarter.
  • −Generally accepted accounting principles net income declined in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 to approximately $24.2 million from $34.6 million a year earlier, partly due to lower interest income following the repayment of $500 million in convertible notes in January 2026, illustrating that growth in adjusted metrics has not fully translated into accounting profit.
  • −EnergyHub's acceleration includes a seasonal component and a non-organic portion; management explained on August 6, 2026, that its programs are annual and recurring rather than monthly, and that the second quarter includes programs growing at a faster pace, so growth initiatives' expansion of more than 30% should not be assumed to continue in every quarter.
  • −The commercial fire alarm communicator carries execution and adoption risks because it is a new product that must be activated through the service-provider channel, and management was unable on August 6, 2026, to estimate its long-term market share or the pace of device replacement in the market. Its hardware sales margin is also near breakeven or slightly positive, below the average margin of the hardware portfolio.
  • −Analyst targets may be optimistic relative to the stock's trading history, as the average target is $62.5 and the target range is $60–65, while the upper end of the 52-week range is only $58.195. This increases valuation sensitivity to any failure to achieve recurring revenue growth or the adjusted earnings margin target of 21% upon exiting fiscal 2027.
  • −Insiders recorded eight sales and no purchases during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 12, 2026, with net sales of $1.4 million. This remains a weak standalone trading signal because insider sales may be prearranged, and the provided context does not indicate otherwise.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is "Buy," with an average price target of $62.5 and a narrow range between $60 and $65; the average is above the $58.195 high within the 52-week range of $41.49–58.195. The data does not include a valid current price-to-earnings ratio, but management noted during the August 6, 2026, call that repurchase opportunities emerged near a multiple of 12 times at previous low levels; by contrast, the target range assumes achievement of the raised guidance despite the expected slowdown in software-as-a-service and license revenue growth in the third quarter of fiscal 2026.

BuyAnalyst target: $62.5(+12.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving Alarm.com's growth in fiscal 2026?

Growth came from stable demand in the residential business and accelerating OpenEye, EnergyHub, and international operations. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, software-as-a-service and license revenue grew 11.1% to $188.8 million, while the growth initiatives collectively grew by more than 30% and came to represent approximately 35% of revenue. As a result, the company raised its total revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 to a range of $1.079–1.089 billion.

How important is OpenEye to ALRM's business?

OpenEye is the commercial video platform that benefited in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 from enterprises expanding their deployment of surveillance cameras and adopting AI-powered services. Management described the mix as combining new customer logos with subsequent expansions in locations, facilities, and cameras among existing customers, supporting revenue retention. This enterprise demand also contributed to raising hardware gross margin by 180 basis points year over year.

How could the new fire alarm communicator affect Alarm.com's revenue?

The product targets what the company estimates to be approximately 4–5 million fire panels in the United States and Canada, and Alarm.com has nearly 3,000 service providers that could be candidates to deploy it. The number of installed units approached 1,000 during the first two to three weeks after launch and before the August 6, 2026, call. The device is sold at a margin near breakeven or slightly positive, but the monthly service fee per building is approximately twice the average monthly revenue of a typical residential account.

Why is EnergyHub an important driver for ALRM stock?

EnergyHub enables utilities to manage demand through thermostats, electric vehicles, chargers, and batteries at a time when the need to balance power grids is increasing. During the July 4, 2026, holiday, utilities used the platform to run more than 300 demand-response events across more than 30 states and Ontario, shifting 17.5 gigawatt-hours of electricity. Management estimates the platform's penetration at only approximately 2% of the addressable North American market, but cautioned that program timing creates quarterly seasonality in growth.

Did Alarm.com's profitability improve in the second quarter of fiscal 2026?

Adjusted metrics improved, as adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 15.7% to $57.7 million and its margin expanded to 20.8%. Adjusted net income also increased 17% to $41.1 million, and adjusted earnings per share reached $0.77, up 24%. In contrast, accounting net income declined to $24.2 million from $34.6 million, partly due to lower interest income following the repayment of $500 million in convertible notes in January 2026.

What are ALRM's key liquidity and share repurchase figures?

Alarm.com ended the second quarter of fiscal 2026 with $479.4 million in cash and generated $37 million in free cash flow. The company repurchased approximately 570 thousand shares for $25 million during the quarter, bringing total purchases since the beginning of fiscal 2025 to 1.8 million shares. It continues to operate under a $150 million repurchase authorization, while expecting to convert 90% of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization into free cash flow during fiscal 2026.