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Stocks
Allegion plc
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall79
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 6/9SafeBetter than 79% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
51
20.1x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
55
10.6%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
84
18.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
71
1.9x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
50
1.38%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
50
-0.7%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
80
8▲3Top tier
ALLE

ALLE Allegion plc

Allegion plc · NYSE
Market Closed
153.35
▲ ⁦+1.38%⁩ (+2.08)
Market Cap$12.9B
Beta0.84
52w Low52w High
125.00183.11
Last Week
⁦-1.11%⁩
Last Month
⁦-9.23%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+16.73%⁩
Last Year
⁦-10.60%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$153
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$156
⁦+2%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$142–$170⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$113
⁦-26%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.1⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$113–$156⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$156.00
⁦+1.7%⁩
Current Price $153.35·Median $156.00
Low
$142.00
High
$170.00
Current price
$153.35
Average target
$156.00
Street summary

Decline in Allegion plc (ALLE) Price Targets

Bearish tilt

Allegion stock has seen a notable decline in its average price target over the last 30 days, with the consensus dropping from 162.33 to 153.5, representing a 5.44% decrease. This negative adjustment occurred despite the number of participating analysts remaining steady (5 analysts), indicating a collective reassessment toward caution. The current price target is moving away from the previous peak of 165, with a dispersion gap between the low (142) and high (165).

As of 2026-07-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.36
Hold
Analyst coverage
11
Buy conviction
36%
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time11 analysts rating
4
7
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.54 → 3.36
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-04-29
    Robert W. Baird
    —· $165.00
  • = Reiterate2026-01-07
    Barclays
    —· $180.00
  • = Reiterate2025-12-16
    Wells Fargo
    Positive
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.07x
    5.69x45.54x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    16.69x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.70x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    5.2%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    10.6%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    6.0%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    44.8%
    8.6%54.6%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    18.2%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.87x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.4%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    27.6%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.54
    -5.667.97
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-23 data

Company Overview

Allegion plc operates in building access and security solutions, generating revenue from locks, readers, specialty doors, and electronic and mechanical credential systems. The company serves institutional, commercial, and residential markets, including education, healthcare, offices, multifamily housing, and data centers. It also benefits from hardware upgrades and subsequent maintenance and replacement demand after expanding its installed base. In the residential business, about 70% of business comes from the aftermarket versus about 30% from new construction, while electronics are driving the shift from keys and plastic cards to mobile and contactless credentials.

In Q2 FY2026, Allegion recorded revenue of approximately $1.2 billion, up 12.7% year over year, while organic growth was 6.9%. According to EDGAR filings, gross profit was $517.5 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 43.1%, while net income reached $184.6 million and earnings per share were $2.15. On an adjusted basis, operating margin was 24.2%, up 50 basis points, and adjusted earnings per share were $2.40, up 17.6% year over year.

The Americas were the primary driver of results; the segment generated revenue of $918.6 million, representing approximately 80% of the two segments' total revenue, with organic growth of 8.9% and adjusted operating income of $276.4 million. By contrast, International segment revenue was $232.9 million, but declined 1.2% organically despite reported growth of 16.2% supported by acquisitions and currency, and the segment recorded adjusted operating income of $28.8 million, with its margin declining 70 basis points. On a trailing twelve-month basis ending in FY2026, revenue was $4.3 billion, net income was $658.6 million, and earnings per share were approximately $7.66.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its FY2026 outlook to reported revenue growth of between 7.5% and 8.5% and organic growth of between 3.5% and 4.5%, while also raising the adjusted earnings per share range to $8.85–$9.00, based on stronger demand in the Americas partially offsetting weakness in international markets.
  • The Americas segment grew organically by 8.9% in Q2 FY2026, with high-single-digit growth in both non-residential and residential businesses, while the segment's electronics revenue increased by a low-teens percentage. Acquisitions also contributed approximately 2.9 percentage points to the segment's revenue growth.
  • The strength of non-residential project specification activity reached the highest level management has seen since the CEO joined the company, and these specifications typically lead revenue by approximately 12 to 18 months. The strength spans healthcare and education, alongside a cyclical improvement in offices and multifamily housing, while data centers are approaching 5% of Allegion's non-residential business and continue to grow rapidly.
  • The transition to mobile credentials enables a hardware upgrade cycle; two deployments at major universities became multimillion-dollar opportunities involving thousands of upgrades to Allegion readers and locks and credential standardization across systems. The benefits extend to off-campus student housing and property managers, supporting hardware sales and subsequent demand from the installed base.
  • Americas margins returned to expansion in Q2 FY2026; pricing and productivity, after accounting for inflation, investment, and currency, added $10.8 million and supported margin by 10 basis points. At the company level, the positive impact of this factor was $11.8 million and 30 basis points, with management expecting the impact in the Americas to be neutral to slightly positive during FY2026.
  • Allegion expects an annual benefit of $10 million from completed international cost-reduction and restructuring actions, with the full benefit run rate reached in Q4 FY2026. International segment margin improved 440 basis points sequentially in Q2 following enterprise resource planning system disruptions in Q1, providing an additional path for second-half improvement if the recovery of delayed production is completed.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q2 FY2026 results combine organic growth of 6.9%, a 50-basis-point year-over-year increase in adjusted operating margin to 24.2%, and 17.6% growth in adjusted earnings per share to $2.40, demonstrating that volume, pricing, and productivity are all contributing to earnings growth.
  • +Strong project specification activity provides visibility that typically extends from 12 to 18 months, with broad demand across healthcare, education, offices, and multifamily housing, in addition to data centers, which are approaching 5% of the non-residential business.
  • +The adoption of mobile and contactless credentials supports a long electronics and hardware upgrade cycle; just two universities generated multimillion-dollar opportunities and thousands of lock and reader upgrades, while Americas electronics grew by a low-teens percentage during the quarter.
  • +Net debt of 1.6 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization gives the company flexibility to allocate capital; it repurchased $120 million of shares and paid $47 million in dividends in Q2 FY2026, after spending $70 million on acquisitions in Q1.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

Analyst consensus on ALLE stock is Neutral, with an average price target of $156 and a range between $142 and $170, compared with a 52-week range between $125 and $183.11. The average target and the highest target are below the 52-week range high, reflecting a more conservative valuation than the peak levels reached by the stock, despite the increased FY2026 outlook. Earnings growth and Americas margins support the positive side of the valuation, while weakness in Germany, the decline in International segment margin, and the wide range of targets justify maintaining a Neutral view.

HoldAnalyst target: $156(+1.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Allegion's results in Q2 FY2026?

Revenue increased 12.7% to approximately $1.2 billion, while organic growth was 6.9%, supported by price and volume. The Americas segment led performance with organic growth of 8.9%, including high-single-digit growth in both residential and non-residential businesses. Adjusted operating margin was 24.2%, up 50 basis points, and adjusted earnings per share increased 17.6% to $2.40. According to EDGAR, net income was $184.6 million and earnings per share were $2.15.

What is Allegion's outlook for FY2026?

Management raised its reported revenue growth outlook to 7.5%–8.5% and raised the organic growth range to 3.5%–4.5%. It also raised its adjusted earnings per share outlook to $8.85–$9.00, consistent with high-single-digit to low-double-digit year-over-year growth. The outlook assumes 85.9 million shares and does not include benefits from additional share repurchases. By contrast, the company expects a low-single-digit organic decline in the International segment because of weakness in Europe, particularly Germany.

How does Allegion benefit from growth in electronic locks and credentials?

Universities are replacing plastic cards and mechanical keys with mobile and contactless credentials managed by Allegion, requiring upgrades to locks and readers. Two deployments at major universities turned thousands of upgrades and credential standardization into multimillion-dollar opportunities. Americas segment electronics revenue increased by a low-teens percentage in Q2 FY2026 and by a high-single-digit percentage year to date. Use also extends to off-campus student housing and property managers, expanding the hardware base that can generate subsequent demand.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Performance depends heavily on the Americas, which generated $918.6 million of the $1.1515 billion in total revenue from the two segments in Q2 FY2026, or approximately 80%. Therefore, any slowdown in non-residential or residential demand in this region could outweigh improvement in smaller markets.
  • −Demand deteriorated in Europe, particularly Germany as the company's largest international market, prompting Allegion to lower its FY2026 International organic growth outlook to a low-single-digit decline. International segment revenue declined 1.2% organically in Q2, even though acquisitions added 14.3% and currency added 3.1% to reported growth.
  • −The consequences of the enterprise resource planning system implementation remain an execution risk; despite a 440-basis-point sequential improvement in International segment margin, management expects to continue recovering production impacts throughout the remainder of FY2026. In Q2, the segment's margin remained 70 basis points lower year over year, while pricing and productivity after inflation and investment created a 120-basis-point headwind.
  • −The residential growth rate recorded in Q2 FY2026 may not continue; management noted some order pull-forward ahead of a price increase at the end of May and did not assume the same quarterly performance would continue in its outlook. Q3 also faces a difficult year-over-year comparison because of a product launch in Q3 FY2025, while new residential construction remained weak.
  • −Input-cost inflation and tariffs remain potential pressures on margins; the company had to announce price increases during the quarter to cover higher costs and intends to monitor the environment and take additional action as needed. Weaker international demand could reduce the ability to pass through price increases compared with the pricing strength in the North American non-residential business.
  • −The target valuation reflects limited optimism; analyst consensus is Neutral, and the average target of $156 is approximately 14.8% below the 52-week range high of $183.11, while even the highest target of $170 remains below that high. The spread of targets between $142 and $170 highlights meaningful differences over how much improvement the strength of the Americas can deliver against weakness in Europe and international execution risks.
How important are data centers to Allegion's business?

Data centers are approaching 5% of Allegion's non-residential business, according to management's statement on July 23, 2026, but are growing faster than traditional markets. The company becomes involved early in the design phase to define specifications and standards and provide the required products within short lead times. Krieger Specialty Products, which Allegion acquired approximately two years before the Q2 FY2026 call, adds high-tech doors suited to this segment. New facilities may later become a source of aftermarket sales as the installed base expands.

What is the main issue facing Allegion's international business?

Pressure is concentrated in Europe, particularly Germany, which management described as Allegion's largest international market, amid reduced economic growth expectations and weak demand. International revenue declined 1.2% organically in Q2 FY2026, and adjusted margin declined 70 basis points year over year. At the same time, the company improved margin by 440 basis points sequentially following enterprise resource planning system disruptions in Q1. It expects a $10 million annual benefit from cost and restructuring actions, reaching the full run rate in Q4 FY2026.

What do Allegion's liquidity and capital distributions look like?

Available cash flow year to date in FY2026 was approximately $260.8 million, down 5.3% because of the timing of sales and higher customer receivable balances at quarter-end. Management still expects available cash flow conversion equal to 85%–95% of adjusted net income during FY2026. Net debt was 1.6 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. In Q2, the company repurchased $120 million of shares and paid $47 million in dividends, and completed no acquisitions after spending $70 million on acquisitions in Q1.