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Stocks
Alkermes plc
ALKS

ALKS Alkermes plc

Alkermes plc · NASDAQ
Market Closed
41.75
▲ ⁦+2.98%⁩ (+1.21)
Market Cap$7.0B
Beta0.26
52w Low52w High
26.9955.37
Last Week
⁦+2.20%⁩
Last Month
⁦-12.51%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-20.32%⁩
Last Year
⁦+50.13%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall51
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 5/9Grey zoneBetter than 51% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
21
107.1x▼17.2xBottom tier
▸
Growth
49
10.8%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
77
3.4%▼4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
47
5.4x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
24
0.00%▼0.19%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
79
70.1%▲0.5%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
64
10▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price⁦$42⁩
  • Analyst targets
    6 analysts
    ⁦$60⁩
    ⁦+43%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$50⁩–⁦$65⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦+21%⁩
  • Discounted cash flow model
    ⁦8.9%⁩ discount rate · ⁦7%⁩ growth a year
    ⁦$22⁩
    ⁦−47%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$17⁩–⁦$31⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦−45%⁩
  • Value at the industry multiple
    Sales × ⁦1.7⁩, median of 62 companies
    ⁦$17⁩
    ⁦−59%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$7.16⁩–⁦$40⁩⁩
1
methods value it above the price
0
methods near the price
2
methods value it below the price

10-year US Treasury yield ⁦5.29%⁩ as of ⁦2026-09-30⁩. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$58.83
⁦+40.9%⁩
Current Price $41.75·Median $59.50
Low
$50.00
High
$65.00
Current price
$41.75
Average target
$58.83
Street summary

A Slight Decline in Consensus While the Outlook Remains Positive

Bullish tilt

The price target consensus remained steady at $58.83 among six analysts, unchanged over the last day, but declined by $1.77, or 2.92%, compared with September 18 and August 26. The range remains wide, between $50 and $65, with a median of $59.5, reflecting notable divergence in valuations despite the consensus remaining above the current price of $40.85.

As of 2026-09-25
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-2.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.79
Buy
Analyst coverage
19
Buy conviction
74%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
36%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
3
11
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 3.79
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-21
    TD Cowen
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-21
    H.C. Wainwright
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    H.C. Wainwright
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    107.05x
    3.64x42.75x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    45.35x
    3.71x29.66x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.2%
    -160.6%8.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    10.8%
    -59.0%93.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -81.4%
    -152.6%130.3%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    84.6%
    12.8%90.6%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    3.4%
    -151.4%16.1%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.39x
    0.61x5.12x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    0.0%
    0.0%1.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.07
    -39.3015.52
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Last updated: 2026-08-30Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Alkermes plc develops and commercializes specialized neuroscience treatments, generating revenue from three main areas: addiction treatment through VIVITROL, psychiatry through ARISTADA and LYBALVI, and sleep disorders through LUMRYZ. It also receives manufacturing and royalty revenue from VUMERITY, long-acting INVEGA products, and RISPERDAL CONSTA, while cash flows from the commercial business fund a future orexin 2 receptor agonist platform that includes alixorexton, ALKS 7290, and ALKS 4510.

In Q2 fiscal year 2026, revenue was $496.0 million and gross profit was $397.9 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 80.2%, while GAAP net income was limited to $501 thousand. Company-owned products generated net sales of $411.7 million, or approximately 83% of revenue, comprising $124.5 million from VIVITROL, $96.7 million from ARISTADA, $94.0 million from LYBALVI, and $96.6 million from LUMRYZ; the remaining $84.3 million came from manufacturing and royalties.

Q2 fiscal year 2026 reflects Alkermes' shift toward sleep and orexin biology following the acquisition of Avadel; LUMRYZ recorded its first full quarterly contribution, with approximately 3,900 patients on treatment. At the same time, research and development expenses rose to $112.9 million from $77.4 million a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA was $139.2 million and cash and investments totaled approximately $690 million at quarter-end, illustrating that the commercial products are funding an expanding but costly clinical program.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Data published on August 24, 2026 showed positive phase 2 results for Alkermes' investigational narcolepsy treatment, supporting alixorexton after the long-term extension study demonstrated sustained improvements in wakefulness, cognition, and fatigue for up to nine months in patients with narcolepsy types 1 and 2.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The phase 3 Brilliance studies of alixorexton in narcolepsy types 1 and 2 are underway with patients actively enrolling, and management said on the July 28, 2026 call that it expected the program to be completed the following year. Enrollment was also completed in the once-daily dose cohorts of the phase 2 Vibrance-3 study in idiopathic hypersomnia, while enrollment continued in the split-dose cohort, with study completion targeted for Q4 fiscal year 2026.
  • LUMRYZ generated net sales of $96.6 million in Q2 fiscal year 2026, with approximately 3,900 patients on treatment, representing 25% year-over-year growth and a net addition of approximately 300 patients from the previous quarter. The company maintained its fiscal year 2026 LUMRYZ sales guidance of $350 million to $370 million, of which $315 million to $335 million will be recorded by Alkermes because the Avadel transaction closed in mid-February 2026.
  • LYBALVI sales rose 12% year over year to $94.0 million, while total prescriptions grew 18% and coverage expanded to more than 80% of insured individuals following agreements with three of the largest Part D plans. Management maintained its fiscal year 2026 LYBALVI sales guidance of $380 million to $400 million, making the conversion of broader coverage into additional prescriptions an important driver of results.
  • Alkermes expanded the orexin platform beyond sleep disorders; the phase 1b study of ALKS 7290 was designed to include approximately 50 adults with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, with initial results targeted by the end of Q3 fiscal year 2026. A phase 2a study of ALKS 4510 was also planned in approximately 175 participants experiencing fatigue associated with multiple sclerosis or Parkinson's disease, opening additional opportunities if these programs demonstrate safety and efficacy.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Alkermes is supported by a diversified commercial portfolio that generated $411.7 million in company-owned product sales in Q2 fiscal year 2026, up 34% year over year, spanning addiction, psychiatry, and sleep disorders rather than relying on a single clinical asset.
    • +The sleep franchise combines an established commercial asset, LUMRYZ, with an advanced pipeline led by the phase 3 alixorexton studies, while LUMRYZ achieved 25% year-over-year patient growth and reached approximately 3,900 patients in Q2 fiscal year 2026.
    • +Alixorexton demonstrated sustained benefits for up to nine months in wakefulness, cognition, and fatigue in patients with narcolepsy types 1 and 2, while the positive phase 2 results published on August 24, 2026 support a partial reduction in clinical risk before phase 3 completion.
    • +Cash and investments of approximately $690 million, together with adjusted EBITDA of $139.2 million in Q2 fiscal year 2026, provide the capacity to fund multiple orexin studies without sacrificing commercial momentum in VIVITROL, ARISTADA, LYBALVI, and LUMRYZ.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The future value of the orexin platform remains subject to clinical trial and regulatory approval risks; alixorexton has not yet completed the phase 3 Brilliance studies, the phase 1b ALKS 7290 study is short, lasting two weeks, and is not designed to demonstrate statistical significance, and Alkermes still plans to consult with the FDA regarding the development path for ALKS 4510 and appropriate fatigue measures.
    • −Q3 fiscal year 2026 guidance indicates a sequential decline from Q2 results; the company expects revenue of $450 million to $470 million versus $496.0 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $80 million to $100 million versus $139.2 million. It also revised its fiscal year 2026 guidance to a GAAP net loss of $95 million to $115 million and positive EBITDA of $75 million to $95 million because of the remeasurement of contingent consideration related to the Avadel transaction.
    • −Alkermes faces direct competition in orexin agonists; management stated that Takeda will enter the market first with a treatment for narcolepsy type 1, while Lilly expanded its phase 2 ORX-750 program from 96 to 248 patients. Competitors' success and pricing could affect alixorexton's future market share and pricing, even though management believes its program offers a broader range of doses and indications.
    • −The strategy to expand LYBALVI access could pressure product economics before the volume impact emerges; gross-to-net adjustments were approximately 36% in Q2 fiscal year 2026, and management expects them to rise to the high-30% range during the second half. Therefore, expanding coverage to more than 80% of insured individuals does not guarantee an immediate corresponding improvement in net sales or margins.
    • −The range of analyst targets assumes substantial execution and clinical success; the average target of $60.6 is approximately 8.9% above the 52-week range high of $55.67, while the highest target reaches $65. This level of expectations increases the stock's sensitivity to any delay in alixorexton, slowdown in LUMRYZ, or additional pressure on LYBALVI profitability.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $60.6, within a relatively wide range of $54 to $65, compared with a 52-week range of $25.17 to $55.67, and the average target is approximately 8.9% above the annual high. The consensus is Buy, but reaching the targets assumes continued growth in LUMRYZ and LYBALVI and success in the next development stages of alixorexton. Conversely, the expected net loss for fiscal year 2026, clinical trial risks, and competition justify a cautious spread between the lowest and highest targets.

    BuyAnalyst target: $60.6(+45.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is the most important source of growth for Alkermes and its ticker ALKS in fiscal year 2026?

    The most prominent commercial driver came from the addition of LUMRYZ following the acquisition of Avadel, as the product recorded $96.6 million in Q2 fiscal year 2026, its first full quarter of contribution. The number of patients on treatment reached approximately 3,900, representing 25% year-over-year growth and a net addition of approximately 300 patients from the previous quarter. The company expects LUMRYZ sales of $350 million to $370 million during fiscal year 2026, of which $315 million to $335 million will be recorded by Alkermes.

    How important is alixorexton to the ALKS stock story?

    Alixorexton is the advanced asset in Alkermes' orexin 2 receptor agonist platform, and the company is targeting it for the treatment of narcolepsy types 1 and 2 and idiopathic hypersomnia. The extension study demonstrated sustained improvements in wakefulness, cognition, and fatigue for up to nine months, while the positive phase 2 results published on August 24, 2026 supported the clinical profile. However, the phase 3 Brilliance studies are still enrolling patients, so the risks related to ultimate efficacy and regulatory approval have not yet been resolved.

    How was the financial performance in Q2 fiscal year 2026?

    Revenue was $496.0 million and gross profit was $397.9 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 80.2%. The company recorded GAAP net income of $501 thousand, while adjusted EBITDA was $139.2 million. Alkermes ended the quarter with approximately $690 million in cash and investments, despite research and development expenses rising to $112.9 million and selling, general, and administrative expenses reaching $217.6 million.

    Does Alkermes depend solely on its sleep drug pipeline?

    No; VIVITROL generated sales of $124.5 million, ARISTADA generated sales of $96.7 million, and LYBALVI generated sales of $94.0 million in Q2 fiscal year 2026. Manufacturing and royalty revenue added $84.3 million, including $30.6 million from VUMERITY, $27.5 million from long-acting INVEGA products, and $20.9 million from RISPERDAL CONSTA. However, management said that most of the expected RISPERDAL CONSTA manufacturing revenue for fiscal year 2026 had already been recorded in that quarter and that it did not expect a material contribution from it for the remainder of the year.

    What are the main risks to monitor for ALKS?

    The first risk is that alixorexton, ALKS 7290, and ALKS 4510 remain clinical-stage assets, with efficacy validation and regulatory approval stages still ahead. The second is that Q3 fiscal year 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $450 million to $470 million and adjusted EBITDA of $80 million to $100 million, both below Q2 fiscal year 2026. Competition from Takeda and Lilly is also intensifying, while LYBALVI gross-to-net adjustments are expected to rise from approximately 36% to the high-30% range during the second half.

    How do analyst targets for ALKS compare with its annual range?

    The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $60.6, a low target of $54, and a high target of $65. The average target is approximately 8.9% above the 52-week range high of $55.67, while the annual range extends to a low of $25.17. This distribution reflects high expectations for growth in the sleep franchise and the success of alixorexton, but it also reveals meaningful differences among analysts regarding the value of clinical and commercial execution.

  • −The insider trading signal was classified as a strong sell, with net sales of $4.3 million over three months and 11 sales compared with no purchases, with the latest transaction occurring on August 17, 2026. This remains a weaker trading signal than the operating and clinical results because insider sales may be prearranged unless the disclosures state otherwise.