| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 65 | — | 17.3x | Around median | |
Growth | 39 | 8.2% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 47 | -1.9% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 24 | 12.0x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 38 | 0.00% | 0.06% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 29 | -16.2% | -1.6% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 93 | 11 | 3 | Top tier |
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Alaska Air Group operates Alaska, Hawaiian, and Horizon, combining passenger transportation, air cargo, the Atmos Rewards loyalty program, and co-branded cards. The Alaska Accelerate plan focuses on expanding international flights from Seattle and growing premium cabins, loyalty, and cargo, while benefiting from integrating Hawaiian into a unified reservation system. In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30, premium product revenue represented 35% of total revenue, and more than half of revenue came from outside the main cabin; this diversifies revenue sources within the airline business, but does not eliminate earnings sensitivity to fuel costs.
Revenue reached 4.1 billion dollars in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, growing 9.7% compared with the same quarter of the previous fiscal year, but the company recorded a net loss of 76.0 million dollars and negative diluted earnings per share of 0.68 dollars. Operating margin fell to -4.1% versus 7.5% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2025, a decline of 11.6 percentage points. Meanwhile, premium product revenue grew 15%, co-branded card remuneration rose 19% to 663 million dollars, and cargo revenue increased 21% compared with the same quarter of the previous fiscal year; growth in the targeted businesses has therefore yet to translate into an operating profit for the group.
Revenue totaled 14.8 billion dollars and the net loss was 175.0 million dollars for the last 12 months through 2026-06-30. According to EL7 data, operating cash flow reached 1.0 billion dollars for the same period, while free cash flow calculated by EL7 (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure) for the last 12 months was -350.0 million dollars. The ALK investment case therefore centers on whether premium revenue, loyalty, and international expansion can restore profitability and generate cash after capital expenditure, at a time when the 2026-09-30 news report warned of continued fuel pressure on earnings in quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026.
Q2 FY2026
Last 12 months to 2026-06-30
When: 2026-10-20
Earnings per share for quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 relative to the breakeven level of 0 dollars, in the expected earnings announcement
Operating margin for quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 compared with the -4.1% level in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30, in the expected earnings announcement
The median target of 6 analysts is 52 dollars, within a range of 46 dollars to 69 dollars, and this method reflects expected growth and profitability, with an inherently optimistic bias. The industry-multiple valuation is 42 dollars, within a range of 35 dollars to 52 dollars, based on next year's earnings and a median multiple of 8.1 among 15 companies, valuing the company according to its peers' pricing. The two ranges overlap between 46 dollars and 52 dollars, but the median analyst target is higher than the industry-multiple valuation, reflecting a growth outlook that goes beyond valuation at the peer multiple alone. The average consensus target is 52.86 dollars, while UBS cut its target to 51 dollars from 54 dollars on 2026-10-16, illustrating that positive longer-term expectations coexist with more cautious revisions.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-10-19; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue for quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30 reached approximately 4.1 billion dollars, growing 9.7% compared with the same quarter of the previous fiscal year, but the net loss reached 76.0 million dollars and operating margin was -4.1%. Unit costs excluding fuel rose 6.5% over the same comparison, while management described fuel as the main pressure on results. The 2026-09-30 warning regarding earnings for quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 indicates that the recovery test includes absorbing costs alongside sustained demand.
Co-branded card remuneration rose 19% to 663 million dollars in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30 compared with the same quarter of the previous fiscal year, alongside 15% growth in active Atmos Rewards members. In the same quarter, premium product revenue grew 15% and reached 35% of total revenue, following the addition of 1.3 million first-class and premium seats through 737 modifications. These businesses give the company ways to increase customer spending, while plans to add lie-flat seats and lounges outlined in the 2026-09-29 news report extend this direction without establishing that margins have improved yet.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Premium product revenue growth in quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 compared with the annual threshold of 15%, in the expected earnings announcement
Total debt reached 6.4 billion dollars, versus cash and short-term investments of 2.7 billion dollars at the end of quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30, according to EL7 data. This comparison excludes long-term marketable securities and therefore is insufficient on its own to establish a liquidity shortfall. Free cash flow calculated by EL7 (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure) for the last 12 months through 2026-06-30 was -350.0 million dollars, making the restoration of cash generation after investment a key factor in the company's ability to reduce debt.
Cargo revenue grew 21% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30 compared with the same quarter of the previous fiscal year, and the company plans to add 4 Boeing 737-800 cargo aircraft and increase the dedicated fleet of this model to 9 aircraft, with service beginning in early 2027. Management explained that the added aircraft would operate for the company and under its brand, rather than under an operating arrangement for Amazon. Separately, the 2026-09-24 news report conveyed expectations of Boeing 737 MAX 10 certification by the end of September 2026 and delivery of the first aircraft in spring 2027, a plan related to passenger fleet renewal whose realization was not established by the report.
The 2026-07-22 call set earnings per share guidance for quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 between breakeven and 1 dollar, based on an expected fuel cost of 3.75 dollars per gallon. However, the warning published on 2026-09-30 indicated that results could reach the low end of expectations because of higher fuel costs. The announcement expected on 2026-10-20 therefore represents a test of profitability and continued premium product growth, which reached 15% compared with the same quarter of the previous fiscal year in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30.