| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 58 | — | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 54 | 9.8% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 55 | -0.1% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 30 | 8.6x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 44 | — | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 22 | -16.0% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 90 | 11 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Alaska Air Group operates a passenger and cargo air transportation network through the Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian, and Horizon brands, with more than 30 thousand employees. Revenue depends on the main cabin, premium products, international flights, the Atmos Rewards program and its co-branded credit cards, and cargo; in Q2 fiscal 2026, premium revenue represented 35% of the total after growing 15%, while more than half of every revenue dollar came from outside the main cabin. Cargo revenue also rose 21%, and co-branded card remuneration reached $663 million, up 19% year over year.
Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue reached approximately $4.1 billion, up 10% year over year with capacity growth of 1%, while unit revenue rose 8.6% despite a 3-point negative impact from Hawaii storms. However, the company recorded a GAAP net loss of $76 million, or a loss of $0.68 per share according to EDGAR data, and an adjusted loss of $102 million. The data did not disclose a consolidated gross margin, but the company returned to profitability in June 2026 and achieved a double-digit pretax margin during that month despite fuel prices rising approximately 70% year over year.
On a trailing-12-month basis in 2026, revenue reached $14.8 billion and the net loss was $175 million, compared with revenue of $14.2 billion and net income of $100 million in fiscal 2025. These figures show that revenue growth has not yet translated into sustainable annual profit, while the group builds a broader mix of premium, loyalty, cargo, and long-haul revenue. Over the longer term, the Alaska Accelerate plan targets structural earnings power exceeding $10 per share and double-digit margins, but these targets remain contingent on fuel normalization and improved operational and financial execution.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The average analyst price target is $59 within a wide range of $46 to $69, with a consensus rating of “Buy”; the average is below the $65.88 peak within the 52-week range of $33.03–$65.88, while the highest target exceeds that peak. The price-to-earnings multiple currently provides no useful anchor because of the approximately $1.57 loss per share and the $175 million net loss over the trailing 12 months in 2026, so the valuation depends more heavily on the guided earnings reversal in the second half, fuel normalization, and reduced financial leverage. The wide target range reflects uncertainty between strong revenue and loyalty growth on one hand, and continued fuel-related losses, debt, and Hawaii risks on the other.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue reached approximately $4.1 billion, up 10% year over year, but the company recorded a net loss of $76 million and an adjusted loss of $102 million. Fuel was the most significant factor, with its average economic cost reaching $4.43 per gallon and rising approximately 70% year over year. Costs also included elevated 787 crew training and employee recognition expenses associated with completing the unified passenger service system. Nevertheless, the company returned to profitability in June 2026 with a double-digit pretax margin.
Co-branded card remuneration reached $663 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 19% year over year. The number of active Atmos Rewards members rose 15%, while member attrition declined by more than 30%, and the number of new cardholders in Hawaii increased 73%. The total number of premium cardholders also exceeded the company’s expectations by approximately 50%, and more than 60% of new accounts during the quarter came from outside the Pacific Northwest. On flights equipped with the Starlink portal, approximately 75% of nonmembers registered Atmos Rewards accounts to use the feature.
Management said on the July 22, 2026 call that flights to Rome, London Heathrow, and Reykjavik started with strong demand, and that 50% or more of passengers on each route were Atmos Rewards members. The company had already achieved its fair share of the premium cabin at the U.S. point of sale and across several corporate channels, while sales in the United Kingdom were activated during 2026. Management also stated that Rome could have been profitable with normalized fuel costs and that booked load factors on Incheon and Narita were significantly higher year over year. Nevertheless, the flights remain in the build-out phase, and the company estimated that the long-haul mix reduces unit revenue by approximately 2 points.
Management described the Hawaii business as a $1 billion franchise within a premium market worth approximately $8 billion and said the group now holds approximately 50% of the premium travel market there. However, storms in 2026 reduced Q2 fiscal 2026 unit revenue by approximately 3 points, alongside a 7% to 8% increase in industry capacity. On August 19, 2026, it was estimated that Hurricane Lala could reduce Q3 fiscal 2026 unit revenue by 2 to 3 points, or approximately $123 million. On the July 22, 2026 call, management said fall bookings and September yields were improving toward historical levels, but competition and natural disasters remain important sources of volatility.
Cargo revenue rose 21% in Q2 fiscal 2026, compared with approximately 10% revenue growth for the group. The company intends to add four owned Boeing 737-800 freighters, increasing its dedicated 737 cargo fleet to 9 aircraft, with service beginning in early 2027 and the aircraft deployed to Alaska and Hawaii. It also plans to begin retiring the 717 fleet in 2028 and replace interisland flights with newer, more fuel-efficient Boeing 737 aircraft. Management believes cargo can add 1 margin point to the group’s business under the Alaska Accelerate plan.
The company ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with total liquidity of $3.8 billion after raising $1 billion in financing, split between $500 million of senior unsecured notes and a term loan of the same amount. Debt to capitalization reached 65% and adjusted net leverage was 4.8 times, while unencumbered assets totaled approximately $20 billion. The weighted average interest rate on debt rose to approximately 5.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter. Management said it would begin aggressively reducing debt after 1 or 2 quarters of stable input prices and a return to healthy cash flows.
