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Home
Stocks
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall42
Weak — below market medianMomentum TrapF 6/9Better than 42% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
28
39.9x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
80
26.3%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
44
——Around median
▸
Safety
36
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
41
1.12%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
53
-15.6%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
67
14▲3Top tier
AJG

AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. · NYSE
Market Closed
240.32
▼ ⁦-1.23%⁩ (-2.99)
Market Cap$61.7B
Beta0.50
52w Low52w High
190.75313.55
Last Week
⁦-9.13%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.20%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+9.17%⁩
Last Year
⁦-19.49%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$240
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$291
⁦+21%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$225–$300⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$132
⁦-45%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$132–$291⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$284.50
⁦+18.4%⁩
Current Price $240.32·Median $291.00
Low
$225.00
High
$300.00
Current price
$240.32
Average target
$284.50
Street summary

Slight Increase in Consensus Price Target with Notable Divergence

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target increased over the last 30 days from 280.56 to 284.5, an increase of 3.94 or 1.4%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days. The current range is between 225 and 300, with a median of 291, indicating clear divergence among analysts even though the consensus remains above the current price of 240.32. The number of analysts in the latest snapshots also declined from 9 to 5, reducing the breadth of the consensus base.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.91
Buy
Analyst coverage
22
Buy conviction
73%
High
Target dispersion
31%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time22 analysts rating
4
12
6
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.61 → 3.91
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-10
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    UBS
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    39.85x
    3.16x25.26x
    Expensive
  • Forward P/E
    17.02x
    2.76x22.06x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    26.3%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -9.3%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    1.1%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    44.6%
    9.8%97.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. operates in insurance brokerage and risk management, and achieves growth through two parallel paths: organic expansion and acquisitions. Its brokerage businesses include property and casualty insurance, employee benefits, reinsurance, and specialty markets, while Gallagher Bassett provides claims and risk management services; revenue depends on client retention, winning new business, growth in client exposures, brokerage commissions, and supplemental and contingent revenues.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, revenue according to EDGAR data was approximately $4.0 billion, net income was $324 million, and earnings per share were $1.25. Based on the adjusted earnings reported in the results announcement, earnings per share were $2.84 versus expectations of $2.81, while reported revenue was $3.95 billion versus expectations of $4.01 billion. During the twelve months ended in fiscal year 2026, the company recorded revenue of $15.0 billion, net income of $1.6 billion, and earnings per share of approximately $6.27, compared with revenue of $13.9 billion and net income of $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2025.

Combined revenue from the brokerage and risk management segments grew 24% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, including 6% organic growth. Brokerage revenue increased 26%, including 5% organically, while Gallagher Bassett achieved 12% organic growth; the adjusted EBITAC margin for risk management also increased 140 basis points to 22.3%, and brokerage recorded underlying margin expansion of 50 basis points. The same quarter also marked the twenty-fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit adjusted EBITAC growth.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management maintained its forecast for overall organic growth of 6% in fiscal year 2026, split between 5.5% for brokerage and 9% for risk management, supported by strong new business, client retention, and growth in client exposures.
  • Gallagher Bassett supports operating momentum with 12% organic growth and an adjusted EBITAC margin of 22.3% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, and the company expects the margin to remain above 22% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 and for the full fiscal year.
  • AssuredPartners continues to support expansion; it generated EBITA of $222 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, and management expects annual run-rate savings of $160 million by the end of 2026, rising to $325 million by early 2028.
  • The company completed seven tuck-in acquisitions during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 with estimated annual revenue of approximately $63 million, and it has more than 30 signed or pending term sheets representing approximately $500 million in annual revenue.
  • Management sees a long-term productivity opportunity from artificial intelligence; it estimated potential savings of approximately 5% of production-layer costs, 10% to 15% of support costs, and 20% to 30% of back-office costs over three to five years, which could allow the company to capture approximately 400 basis points out of an estimated total opportunity of 600 basis points after accounting for potential offsets.
  • The company has estimated capacity of approximately $10 billion for capital deployment during the two years following the July 30, 2026 call, with acquisitions taking priority and the possibility of selective share repurchases; it had repurchased approximately 850 thousand shares for $170 million in the second quarter, bringing the total to $480 million through June 30, 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Gallagher's model combines 6% organic growth with 24% total growth for the brokerage and risk management segments in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, demonstrating contributions from both existing operations and acquisitions rather than reliance on a single source of growth.
  • +Business diversification provides relative protection from weakness in property pricing; Gallagher Bassett achieved 12% organic growth, while new business supported reinsurance growth, and the company continued to benefit from demand related to infrastructure, energy, data centers, and specialty risks.
  • +The integration of AssuredPartners enhances earnings scalability, with EBITA of $222 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 and expected run-rate savings rising from $160 million by the end of 2026 to $325 million by early 2028.
  • +Cash generation supports the acquisition strategy, as management indicated a cash tax rate of approximately 10% of EBITA and $3.4 billion in future tax savings, alongside capacity of approximately $10 billion for capital deployment over two years.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $284.5, within a wide range of $225 to $300, compared with the stock's 52-week range of $190.75 to $313.55; the average target is approximately 9% below the top of the annual range. The consensus rating is Buy, but the wide gap between the lowest and highest targets and the absence of an available price-to-earnings ratio reflect meaningful disagreement over the effect of weak property pricing and the pace at which AssuredPartners savings will be realized on fair value.

BuyAnalyst target: $284.5(+18.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove AJG's results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026?

Combined brokerage and risk management revenue grew 24%, and organic growth was 6% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. Brokerage revenue increased 26%, including 5% organically, while Gallagher Bassett recorded 12% organic growth. According to EDGAR data, revenue was approximately $4.0 billion, net income was $324 million, and earnings per share were $1.25, while reported adjusted earnings per share were $2.84.

How does AssuredPartners affect Arthur J. Gallagher's growth?

AssuredPartners generated EBITA of $222 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, consistent with the company's estimates provided in June 2026. Its underlying growth was approximately 4% at the time of the July 30, 2026 call, with client retention remaining strong according to management. The company expects annual run-rate savings of $160 million by the end of 2026, rising to $325 million by early 2028.

Does declining property insurance pricing threaten AJG's growth?

Property renewal premiums fell 10% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, and management indicated that pricing contributed only approximately one percentage point to organic growth. In contrast, casualty lines increased 3% overall, professional lines 1%, workers' compensation 2%, and personal lines 3%. The company is targeting overall organic growth of 6% in fiscal year 2026, relying to a greater extent on new business, client retention, and exposure growth.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Declining property pricing creates direct pressure on organic growth; property renewal premiums fell 10% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, pricing contributed only approximately one percentage point to organic growth, and property catastrophe reinsurance faced additional pricing pressure due to abundant capacity.
  • −Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 came in at $3.95 billion, below analysts' expectations of $4.01 billion, despite adjusted earnings per share exceeding expectations by $0.03; this divergence makes the continuation of both revenue growth and margin improvement a critical factor.
  • −Achieving the 5.5% brokerage organic growth forecast for fiscal year 2026 requires acceleration in the latter part of the year; calculated growth in the first half was approximately 4.6%, and management acknowledged that the forecast assumes an increase in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 following the impact of the property renewal season in the second quarter.
  • −Acquisition activity slowed to approximately 80% of its historical average, and management said the number of deals declined by approximately 20% as sellers adjusted to lower valuation multiples; a continuation of this slowdown may limit the contribution from inorganic growth until dealmaking conditions improve.
  • −Analyst targets range from $225 to $300, a spread of $75, and the data do not include a usable price-to-earnings ratio; therefore, fair value estimates remain sensitive to differing assumptions regarding declining insurance prices, accelerating organic growth, and the realization of AssuredPartners savings.
  • −Insiders recorded net sales of $3.9 million during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 24, 2026, through two sales and no purchases; this is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data establish otherwise.
  • How important is Gallagher Bassett to the AJG investment thesis?

    Gallagher Bassett achieved 12% organic growth in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, driven by new business and strong client retention. The adjusted EBITAC margin increased 140 basis points to 22.3%, and adjusted EBITAC grew 22% as adjusted revenue grew 14%. Management expects a margin above 22% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 and for the full fiscal year, benefiting from scale and the use of data and artificial intelligence in claims management.

    How is AJG deploying capital in fiscal year 2026?

    The company completed seven tuck-in acquisitions in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 with estimated annual revenue of approximately $63 million. The opportunity pipeline includes more than 30 signed or pending term sheets representing approximately $500 million in annual revenue. It also repurchased approximately 850 thousand shares for $170 million in the second quarter, bringing total repurchases to $480 million through June 30, 2026, but clarified that acquisitions remain the priority for capital deployment.

    What are the key figures to monitor for AJG during the remainder of fiscal year 2026?

    The first indicator is the company's ability to achieve overall organic growth of 6%, including 5.5% for brokerage and 9% for risk management in fiscal year 2026. The targeted underlying brokerage margin expansion of between 40 and 60 basis points should also be monitored, along with Gallagher Bassett's margin remaining above 22%. Other key factors include targeted AssuredPartners savings at a run rate of $160 million by the end of 2026, as well as the impact of continued declines in property pricing, which reached 10% in second-quarter renewals.