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Stocks
AAR Corp.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall82
Excellent — top fifth of the marketMomentum TrapF 6/9SafeBetter than 82% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
42
25.9x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
93
19.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
41
8.6%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
62
2.7x2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
78
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
77
96.8%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
47
4▲3Around median
AIR

AIR AAR Corp.

AAR Corp. · NYSE
Market Closed
125.48
▲ ⁦+0.81%⁩ (+1.01)
Market Cap$5.0B
Beta1.13
52w Low52w High
73.26154.00
Last Week
⁦-0.14%⁩
Last Month
⁦-15.31%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.38%⁩
Last Year
⁦+69.45%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$125
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$145
⁦+16%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$132–$155⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$8.31
⁦-93%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.4⁩% discount · ⁦6⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$8.31–$145⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$144.00
⁦+14.8%⁩
Current Price $125.48·Median $145.00
Low
$132.00
High
$155.00
Current price
$125.48
Average target
$144.00
Street summary

Analysis of target price revisions for AAR Corp. (AIR) stock

Bullish tilt

The stock saw a sharp upward revision in the average target price over the past thirty days, with the consensus jumping from $120 to $144, an overall increase of 20%. This adjustment, which gained additional momentum in the last week with a 5.88% increase, reflects growing optimism from the covering analysts (2 analysts), with the target range currently between $132 and $155, placing the current price (135.4) near the lower end of expectations.

As of 2026-07-29
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.86
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
71%
High
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
1
4
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.20 → 3.86
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-22
    KeyBanc
    Sector Weight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-14
    Jefferies
    Buy
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-06-30
    KeyBanc
    OverweightSector Weight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    25.87x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    21.22x
    4.57x36.58x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    17.15x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    1.2%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    19.0%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    1285.7%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    18.8%
    8.6%54.6%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    8.6%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.68x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.96
    -5.667.97
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-21 data

Company Overview

AAR Corp. provides an integrated aviation aftermarket services platform combining parts supply, component and airframe repair, engineering solutions, and software. Its principal activities are divided among parts supply; repair, engineering and software; and government solutions. Commercial customers accounted for 73% of fiscal 2026 Q4 sales, versus 27% for government customers. The company benefits from new parts distribution, aircraft and component maintenance, repair and overhaul, government logistics contracts, and recurring software revenue from Trax and Aerostrat, with pilot testing beginning for the AI-powered Airvoyant platform.

Fiscal 2026 Q4 sales reached a record $928 million, up 26% year over year, including 13% organic growth. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 27% to $116 million, and the margin improved from 12.4% to 12.5%, while adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 32% to $1.53. Parts supply generated $424 million in sales, repair, engineering and software generated $314 million, and government solutions recorded $130 million, equivalent to approximately 46%, 34% and 14% of total sales, respectively, with the remaining activities contributing the balance.

In fiscal 2026, adjusted sales rose 20% to $3.3 billion, including adjusted organic growth of 14%, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization increased 24%. The adjusted margin was 12.1%, or 12.7% excluding the legacy commercial programs business, while adjusted earnings per share rose 29% to $5.05. The company generated adjusted cash flow from operations of $58 million in fiscal 2026 Q4 and $94 million during fiscal 2026, while net leverage declined from 2.17 times at the end of Q3 to 2.03 times at the end of Q4.

What's Driving the Stock

  • AAR management is targeting fiscal 2027 Q1 sales growth of between 21% and 23% and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization margin of between 12.25% and 12.75%, both excluding the legacy commercial programs business. Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for growth ranging from the low teens to the early teens, driven by new parts distribution, component repair, new capacity, software, and an improved government program mix.
  • New parts distribution grew organically by 19% in fiscal 2026 Q4, with commercial distribution growing organically by 28% and government distribution by 7%. The company also expanded its relationship with Woodward through an exclusive agreement to distribute high-demand parts for LEAP, GEnX and CF34 engines, while management explained that approximately half of commercial distribution growth came from existing agreements and slightly less than half from the ramp-up of new agreements.
  • Repair, engineering and software sales rose 35% to $314 million in fiscal 2026 Q4, supported by HAECO Americas, record growth in component repair, higher airframe maintenance volumes, and increased recurring revenue at Trax. The company is targeting HAECO Americas facilities to reach margins comparable to its other airframe maintenance locations in the second half of fiscal 2027, after the acquisition’s negative impact on the company’s margin declined from approximately 70 basis points in the previous quarter to approximately 40 basis points in Q4.
  • Software represents an increasingly important growth driver. AAR doubled Trax revenue from $25 million at the time of acquisition to $50 million and sees a clear path to $100 million before a longer-term target of $200 million for the software portfolio. Airvoyant, launched in April 2026, entered pilot testing with launch partners, while the Trax implementation at Delta reached phase two and is now used by more than 10,000 Delta professionals.
  • The government contract backlog supports the forward outlook despite the contraction in WASS. In March 2026, AAR received a $305 million follow-on contract from the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps to support the C-40 fleet. In fiscal 2026 Q4, other government programs and platform sales partly offset the decline in WASS and increased the government solutions margin by 670 basis points to 16.0%, despite an 8% decline in segment sales to $130 million.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +AAR achieved broad-based growth in fiscal 2026 Q4, with sales rising 26%, organic growth reaching 13%, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization increasing 27%, and adjusted earnings per share rising 32%, demonstrating that the expansion did not depend on acquisitions alone.
  • +The company’s parts, repair and software platform provides several simultaneous growth drivers. Parts supply grew 39% to $424 million, repair, engineering and software grew 35% to $314 million, and new parts distribution activities achieved 19% organic growth in fiscal 2026 Q4.
  • +There is a measurable growth opportunity in software and component repair. Trax reached $50 million in revenue with a stated path toward $100 million, while the cross-selling model identified customers generating more than $100 million annually in airframe maintenance compared with only a few million in component repair.
  • +The financial position improved alongside the expansion, with net leverage declining to 2.03 times at the end of fiscal 2026 Q4 and adjusted cash flow from operations reaching $58 million in the quarter. This gives the company greater capacity to finance parts supply growth and complete the integration of acquisitions, while continuing to target operating cash conversion exceeding 30% of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization over multiple periods.

Valuation

The analyst consensus on AIR stock is “Buy,” with an average price target of $144 and a target range of $132 to $155. The average target is below the 52-week high of $154, while the highest target nearly matches it, and the wide spread between the lowest and highest targets reveals a meaningful difference in estimates of the pace of growth and margin improvement. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the stock’s valuation here is based on the target range compared with the 52-week range of $73.05 to $154, while balancing strong fiscal 2026 growth against expected growth deceleration and pressure from the HAECO Americas integration.

BuyAnalyst target: $144(+14.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove AAR’s growth in fiscal 2026 Q4?

AAR’s sales reached a record $928 million in fiscal 2026 Q4, up 26% year over year with 13% organic growth. Parts supply grew 39% to $424 million, while repair, engineering and software sales rose 35% to $314 million. Growth came from new parts distribution, increased component and airframe repair work, the HAECO Americas acquisition, and higher recurring revenue at Trax. Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 32% to $1.53.

What is AAR’s outlook for fiscal 2027?

For fiscal 2027, management expects sales growth, excluding the legacy commercial programs business, ranging from the low teens to the early teens. For fiscal 2027 Q1, it expects sales growth of between 21% and 23% and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization margin of between 12.25% and 12.75%. This outlook depends on continued strength in new parts distribution, growth in component repair, maintenance facility expansions entering service, and software expansion. The company also expects new, higher-margin government programs to offset the continuing decline in WASS activity.

How important are Trax, Airvoyant and Aerostrat to AAR’s growth?

AAR doubled Trax revenue from $25 million at the time of acquisition to $50 million and sees a clear path to $100 million before a longer-term target of $200 million for the software portfolio. The Trax implementation at Delta reached phase two, and the system is used by more than 10,000 Delta professionals. The company launched Airvoyant in April 2026, and the platform entered pilot testing with several airlines, benefiting from the Aeroxchange network, which connects approximately 5,000 suppliers with hundreds of airlines. Management also said Aerostrat’s performance in the heavy maintenance planning market has exceeded its expectations since the acquisition.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −The WASS program continues to contract, resulting in an 8% decline in government solutions sales to $130 million in fiscal 2026 Q4, and management expects its activity to continue declining. Other programs and platform sales offset part of the impact, but the continuing decline requires the company to generate sufficient growth in higher-margin government contracts to maintain the segment’s trajectory.
  • −The integration of HAECO Americas continues to pressure profitability. It reduced the repair, engineering and software segment margin by approximately 130 basis points in fiscal 2026 Q4, while other component repair costs had an impact of approximately 90 basis points. As a result, the segment margin declined 50 basis points to 11.5% despite 35% sales growth.
  • −The parts supply margin declined 250 basis points to 14.6% in fiscal 2026 Q4, affected by a nonrecurring gain of $6.5 million in the comparable period and weaker economics for used serviceable material. Management explained that limited asset availability increased purchasing costs and narrowed the spread between the purchase and sale prices of these assets, making margin improvement more dependent on continued growth in higher-margin distribution.
  • −Fiscal 2027 guidance indicates growth ranging from the low teens to the early teens, excluding legacy commercial programs, which is slower than the 20% adjusted sales growth achieved in fiscal 2026. Fiscal 2027 Q1 guidance for a margin of between 12.25% and 12.75% also leaves clear sensitivity to any delay in integrating HAECO Americas or bringing maintenance facility expansions into service.
  • −Adjusted operating cash conversion was 24% of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in fiscal 2026, below the long-term target of more than 30%. Achieving the target requires continued reductions in days sales outstanding and improved inventory turnover, while inventory investments needed for parts supply growth may cause cash flow volatility between periods.
  • −The valuation based on analyst targets offers limited headroom relative to the historical top of the range. The average target of $144 is approximately 6.5% below the 52-week high of $154, while the highest target of $155 is approximately equal to that level. With no price-to-earnings ratio available in the data, it is difficult to assess whether the valuation fully reflects the risks of slowing growth, margin pressure and execution.
Are AAR’s margins improving despite the acquisitions?

The company’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization margin rose from 12.4% to 12.5% in fiscal 2026 Q4 and reached 13% excluding legacy commercial programs. However, the repair, engineering and software margin declined 50 basis points to 11.5%, as the integration of HAECO Americas had an impact of approximately 130 basis points and component repair costs had an impact of approximately 90 basis points. The parts supply margin also declined 250 basis points to 14.6% due to a previous nonrecurring gain of $6.5 million and pressures from used serviceable material. The company is targeting HAECO Americas facilities to reach margins comparable to its other locations in the second half of fiscal 2027.

What are the main growth opportunities in AAR’s parts distribution and government contracts?

New parts distribution grew organically by 19% in fiscal 2026 Q4, including organic growth of 28% in commercial distribution and 7% in government distribution. AAR signed an additional exclusive agreement with Woodward to distribute parts for LEAP, GEnX and CF34 engines, following previous cooperation in defense distribution. In March 2026, the company received a $305 million follow-on contract to support the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps C-40 fleet. In contrast, the continuing decline of the WASS program remains a challenge that requires sufficient growth in other government programs to offset it.

What do AAR’s financial position and cash flow look like?

AAR generated adjusted cash flow from operations of $58 million in fiscal 2026 Q4 and $94 million during fiscal 2026. Net leverage declined from 2.17 times at the end of Q3 to 2.03 times at the end of Q4, despite financing the acquisition of Aircraft Reconfig Technologies during the quarter. Adjusted operating cash conversion was 50% of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in the quarter, but only 24% for the full year. Management is targeting more than 30% over multiple periods by reducing days sales outstanding and increasing inventory turnover.