| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 73 | 9.3x | 17.3x | Top tier | |
Growth | 10 | -10.6% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 42 | — | — | Around median | |
Safety | 58 | — | — | Around median | |
Capital Return | 91 | 2.05% | 0.06% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 28 | -14.5% | -1.6% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 66 | 2 | 3 | Top tier |
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. operates in financial guarantees, with its core business focused on insuring U.S. municipal bonds, global structured finance, and public finance outside the United States, alongside asset management and the Assured Life Re pension reinsurance platform. The company earns income from guarantee premiums, while its fund finance business adds shorter-term transactions than its long-term U.S. public finance portfolio, with maturities typically ranging from a few months to slightly more than two years, allowing premiums to be earned and capital to be recycled more quickly. It also allocates part of its portfolio to alternative investments, which have generated an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 12% since inception, compared with a three-year average yield of 4.3% for the fixed-maturity portfolio.
In Q2 FY2026, adjusted operating income was $55 million, or $1.23 per share, compared with $50 million in Q2 FY2025, with per-share income rising 22%. The result benefited from growth in net earned premiums, supported by refundings and scheduled premiums associated with shorter-term strategies such as fund finance, and from a decline in loss expense to $4 million from $28 million a year earlier; conversely, the company recorded a $19 million mark-to-market loss in a CLO equity fund. The call did not include a figure for GAAP revenue, GAAP net income, or gross margin for the quarter, while the latest available EDGAR figures for Q1 FY2026 show revenue of $261 million, net income of $88 million, and earnings per share of $1.91.
Present value of production PVP reached approximately $152 million in the first half of FY2026, up 48% from $103 million in the corresponding period, with U.S. public finance leading the mix with production of $106 million. Global structured finance production reached $35 million, compared with $15 million, while the company insured $9.6 billion of par value in new issues across 423 transactions, and more than $10.1 billion when including primary and secondary market transactions in U.S. public finance. At the end of Q2 FY2026, adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share reached a record $129.94, while adjusted book value per share also reached a record $189.72.
The analyst consensus is "Buy," with an average price target of $80 and identical high and low targets of $80, compared with a 52-week range of $72.76 to $92.40. The target is approximately 13% below the top of the range and approximately 10% above its bottom, reflecting a valuation anchor closer to the midpoint of the range than to its peak, while the data do not provide a valid P/E multiple for comparison. Record levels of adjusted book value and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share support the positive valuation case, but Brightline and Thames Water risks, CLO volatility, and the allocation of capital to Assured Life Re justify caution about relying on a single target.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Present value of production PVP rose 48% to $152 million from $103 million in the first half of FY2025. U.S. public finance contributed $106 million, exceeding the company's total production in the corresponding period, while global structured finance rose to $35 million from $15 million. The company also insured $9.6 billion of new municipal issues across 423 transactions, demonstrating that growth came from both business volume and the expanding range of guarantee applications.
Brightline represented the largest driver of adverse economic loss development during Q2 FY2026 and faces clear liquidity pressure. Assured Guaranty's share is approximately $1 billion within the top $2 billion of the capital structure, with approximately $4 billion below that layer, according to management's explanation on August 7, 2026. The situation did not affect adjusted operating income because expected losses did not exceed deferred premium revenue, but the start of claim payments would be a key factor in moving it to surveillance category 3.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The company recorded a $19 million mark-to-market loss on an investment in a CLO equity fund, and this portfolio is reported with a one-quarter lag. Management said on August 7, 2026 that it had seen a partial reversal of some of those losses in the subsequent period, without specifying an amount. Despite the volatility, the annualized internal rate of return on alternative investments since inception remained approximately 12%, compared with 4.3% for the three-year average yield on the fixed-maturity portfolio.
Management said on August 7, 2026 that market reception for the Assured Life Re platform could accelerate the timing of transaction bookings compared with the original schedule. This acceleration requires more capital initially, before the portfolio reaches a scale that allows it to fund itself. Therefore, a smaller portion of released capital may be available for repurchases, although the company bought 554 thousand shares for $45 million in Q2 FY2026.
Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share reached a record $129.94 at the end of Q2 FY2026, while adjusted book value per share reached a record $189.72. In the same quarter, the company returned $45 million through share repurchases and $17 million through dividends, while holding-company liquidity was approximately $179 million at the time of the August 7, 2026 call. Since the repurchase program began in 2013, total purchases have reached $6 billion, while the quarterly dividend per share has increased from $0.10 to $0.38.
As of the August 7, 2026 call, the company had issued policies or commitments expected to generate $42 million of PVP. This business includes large U.S. public finance transactions, a European toll road in the primary market, and several structured finance transactions, including two with a new counterparty. Management affirmed that it had a strong pipeline across U.S. public finance, global structured finance, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region, but did not provide a full numerical target for the quarter or the second half.