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Home
Stocks
Affirm
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall76
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 4/8Better than 76% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
32
12.9x▲17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
97
32.2%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
99
——Top tier
▸
Safety
43
——Around median
▸
Capital Return
18
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
56
-12.0%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
44
20▲3Around median
AFRM

AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc.

Affirm Holdings, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
71.44
▲ ⁦+5.07%⁩ (+3.45)
Market Cap$23.9B
Beta3.62
52w Low52w High
42.1092.56
Last Week
⁦-3.58%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.87%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+13.74%⁩
Last Year
⁦-19.20%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$71
Analyst target · 10 analysts
$97
⁦+36%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$75–$115⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$21
⁦-70%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦12⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$21–$97⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 10 analysts setting price target
$97.47
⁦+36.4%⁩
Current Price $71.44·Median $97.00
Low
$75.00
High
$115.00
Current price
$71.44
Average target
$97.47
Street summary

Affirm Price Target Consensus Rises Amid Continued Divergence

Bullish tilt

Affirm’s consensus price target rose to 97.47 from 91.92 over the last 30 days, an increase of $5.55 or 6.04%, while the increase over the last 7 days was limited to $0.47. The consensus was unchanged over the last day, and the number of analysts remained at 10, indicating that the recent improvement came from revised estimates rather than broader coverage.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+6.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.88
Buy
Analyst coverage
33
Buy conviction
73%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
56%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time33 analysts rating
5
19
9
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.75 → 3.88
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    Loop Capital Markets
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-02
    Scotiabank
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.92x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    41.13x
    2.76x22.06x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    46.02x
    3.07x24.55x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    4.0%
    -19.9%19.1%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    32.2%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    3586.7%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    64.0%
    23.5%98.3%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    14.3%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    11.33x
    0.25x7.31x
    High debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-27 data

Company Overview

Affirm Holdings, Inc. provides buy now, pay later solutions and purchase financing, connecting consumers with merchants through a network that includes point-of-sale financing, Affirm Card, Affirm Money Account, and products tailored to business purchases. Its model spans interest-bearing loans and 0% interest promotional programs funded by merchants, manufacturers, or platform partners, in addition to loan sale revenue; the share of interest-bearing loans exceeded 80% in direct-to-consumer products during Q4 FY2026.

EDGAR data for FY2026 showed revenue of $4.3 billion, net income of $1.9 billion, and earnings per share of $5.53. In Q4 FY2026, the data showed revenue of $3.2 billion and net income of $1.6 billion, while the company reported quarterly earnings of $4.62 per share versus analysts’ estimates of $0.33, and management described the quarter as the most profitable in its history even when excluding the tax allowance release.

The profit surge requires careful interpretation; Q4 FY2026 net income was approximately $1.617 billion, but it included a tax benefit of $1.448 billion, while operating income was $147 million. As for the business mix, Pay-in-X grew by 41%, and Pay in 4 accelerated after a major merchant adopted it permanently, while offline transactions accounted for 30% of Affirm Card transactions despite remaining a small portion of gross merchandise volume.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Q4 FY2026 earnings per share exceeded expectations by a wide margin, reaching $4.62 versus the expected $0.33, but the more sustainable operating driver is the $147 million in operating income rather than the $1.448 billion tax benefit.
  • Pay-in-X grew by 41% during Q4 FY2026, and Pay in 4 accelerated after a major merchant with a low average order value made it a permanent part of its financing program, demonstrating Affirm’s ability to tailor financing offers to each merchant’s basket size.
  • Affirm Card’s active-user attachment rate reached 19%, and management said a card user spends approximately twice as much as a typical user, while 30% of card transactions occur offline; therefore, increasing penetration and in-store usage represent two clear paths to growing gross merchandise volume.
  • Affirm is available at 80 of the top 250 e-commerce sites and at 10% of e-commerce merchants, leaving substantial room for expansion, although management notes that integrating major merchants requires long sales cycles and modifications to legacy systems.
  • Services segment volume nearly doubled year over year after signing one or two major services platforms, while the company expanded its international partnership with Shopify and recorded positive initial results in the United Kingdom, adding growth sources beyond financing U.S. e-commerce.
  • FY2027 guidance targets a revenue less transaction costs percentage of 4.16%, above the medium-term range of 3.25% to 4%, supported by funding cost and mix, stable credit performance, and a slight shift toward interest-bearing loans.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q4 FY2026 demonstrated that business growth can coincide with operating profit; operating income reached $147 million, while FY2026 recorded revenue of $4.3 billion and net income of $1.9 billion.
  • +Affirm has measurable penetration potential, as it is still available at only 80 of the top 250 e-commerce sites and at 10% of merchants, alongside Shopify expansion and the positive launch that management described in the United Kingdom.
  • +Affirm Card supports repeat usage, as card users spend approximately twice as much and its active-user attachment rate reached 19%, while the 30% share of offline transactions among card transactions opens access to a market larger than e-commerce alone.
  • +The diversity of products across Pay in 4, Pay-in-X, interest-bearing loans, and 0% offers gives the company flexibility to align financing duration and basket size with each merchant, as reflected in Pay-in-X growth of 41% and the services segment’s acceleration to nearly double.

▼ Selling Case8 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average target of $97.13 and a wide range between $75 and $115; the average is approximately 4.2% above the 52-week range high of $93.2, while the range low is $42.095. No price-to-earnings ratio is displayed, and the $1.448 billion tax benefit inflated Q4 FY2026 earnings; therefore, valuation should be tied to the $147 million in operating income and the sustainability of growth and credit performance rather than extrapolating quarterly earnings per share of $4.62.

BuyAnalyst target: $97.13(+36.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove AFRM’s Q4 FY2026 results?

Affirm reported earnings per share of $4.62 versus estimates of $0.33, and net income reached $1.617 billion. However, the results included a tax benefit of $1.448 billion, while operating income was $147 million. At the business level, Pay-in-X grew by 41%, and Pay in 4 accelerated after a major merchant decided to make it a permanent part of its financing program.

Is Affirm’s Q4 FY2026 profitability repeatable?

The figures do not support extrapolating earnings per share of $4.62 as reported into subsequent periods. The $1.448 billion tax benefit accounted for most of the $1.617 billion in quarterly net income, compared with operating income of $147 million. Management also refrained from providing precise earnings-per-share guidance for FY2027 because of volatility in the effective tax rate, while estimating an operating tax rate in the mid-to-high twenties percentage range.

How important is Affirm Card to AFRM’s growth?

Affirm Card’s active-user attachment rate reached 19% in Q4 FY2026, and management said a card user spends approximately twice as much as a typical user. Offline transactions accounted for 30% of card transactions, although the card still represents a small portion of gross merchandise volume. The company is working to increase the attachment rate and usage through card-specific features and integration with Affirm Money Account.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Affirm’s exposure to credit and funding risks is fundamental because its business depends on making approval or rejection decisions for approximately 100 million transactions each quarter; any deterioration in delinquencies could prompt the company to tighten approvals and slow gross merchandise volume before it develops into a larger credit disruption.
  • −Q4 FY2026 earnings per share of $4.62 do not represent an extrapolatable level because $1.448 billion of the $1.617 billion in net income came from a tax benefit, while operating income was limited to $147 million.
  • −Some of the acceleration depends on specific major partners; a major merchant drove growth by permanently adopting Pay in 4, while the near-doubling of services growth followed the signing of one or two major platforms, making the growth rate vulnerable to the performance of a limited number of new integrations.
  • −Competition in buy now, pay later and payments continues, and a question directed to management noted competitors launching more products and flexible debit cards; AFRM’s 10% rise on August 28, 2026 was also linked in part to the collapse of a potential acquisition deal involving PayPal, a non-operating sector catalyst.
  • −In-store expansion faces technical and user-experience barriers, including weak connectivity, some point-of-sale systems not supporting QR codes or barcodes, and difficulty handling order rejections or basket-value adjustments, while card transactions still represent a small portion of gross merchandise volume despite 30% of them occurring offline.
  • −Affirm Edge requires lengthy implementation cycles and banking and regulatory approvals, and management explained that banking partners require approvals from entities such as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and that technical parts of the product are still under development.
  • −Analysts’ targets range from $75 to $115, a $40 spread that reflects high sensitivity to assumptions regarding growth, credit, and margins; the absence of a displayed price-to-earnings ratio also makes valuing sustainable earnings more difficult following the large tax benefit.
  • −Insider activity showed one sale and net sales of 155,720 shares during the three months ended August 12, 2026, with no purchases, but this is a weak standalone signal because insider sales may be prearranged unless disclosures state otherwise.
  • What are Affirm’s growth opportunities outside U.S. e-commerce?

    Affirm is available at 80 of the top 250 e-commerce sites and at 10% of e-commerce merchants, meaning the core market itself remains underpenetrated. On August 28, 2026, gross merchandise volume growth was linked to the expansion of the international partnership with Shopify, while management described the response from consumers and merchants in the United Kingdom as positive. Services segment volume also nearly doubled year over year after signing one or two major platforms, although management cautioned against assuming that the same near-doubling pace would continue.

    What are Affirm’s biggest credit and funding risks?

    Affirm makes real-time credit decisions for approximately 100 million transactions each quarter and treats its credit-loss target as an input that determines approval rates. Management said it would slow growth before allowing a major credit disruption to occur, but acknowledged upward and downward movements in delinquency indicators. The targeted revenue less transaction costs percentage of 4.16% in FY2027 also depends on funding cost and mix and credit performance continuing without material deterioration.

    How does AFRM’s valuation look according to analyst consensus?

    The stock has a “Buy” consensus and an average target of $97.13, with a high target of $115 and a low target of $75. The average target exceeds the 52-week range high of $93.2 by approximately 4.2%, while the range low is $42.095. No price-to-earnings ratio is displayed, and the $40 spread in targets confirms that the valuation estimate depends heavily on separating sustainable operating profit from the non-recurring tax benefit.