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Stocks
Aflac Incorporated
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall70
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 4/8Better than 70% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
59
12.4x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
38
13.4%▲7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
88
——Top tier
▸
Safety
32
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
72
2.04%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
67
14.7%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
43
9▲3Around median
AFL

AFL Aflac Incorporated

Aflac Incorporated · NYSE
Market Closed
115.28
▲ ⁦+0.71%⁩ (+0.81)
Market Cap$58.3B
Beta0.58
52w Low52w High
105.43130.22
Last Week
⁦-1.67%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.78%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.56%⁩
Last Year
⁦+8.47%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$115
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$122
⁦+6%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$99–$138⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$81
⁦-30%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$81–$122⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$118.86
⁦+3.1%⁩
Current Price $115.28·Median $122.00
Low
$99.00
High
$138.00
Current price
$115.28
Average target
$118.86
Street summary

Analysts’ Views Diverge on Aflak

The consensus price target stood at 118.86, unchanged over the past 7 days, which is approximately 2.53 higher than its level 30 days ago, while the number of analysts increased from 2 to 6. The current range is between 99 and 138, while the median is 122, reflecting a notable divergence in estimates compared with the current price of 115.16.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.00
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦15 (+4)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
20%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
34%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
2
1
8
3
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.29 → 3.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-19
    Wolfe Research
    Underperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-10
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    Barclays
    Underweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.40x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    15.71x
    2.76x22.06x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    13.4%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    109.9%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    2.0%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    25.3%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-07 data

Company Overview

Aflac Incorporated operates in insurance through two main markets, Japan and the United States, and generates income from insurance policy premiums and returns on its investment portfolio. In Japan, its core portfolio focuses on third-sector cancer and medical insurance, while the first-sector yen-denominated savings product Tsumitasu is used to attract younger customers and support concurrent sales of cancer and medical insurance policies. In the United States, operations include group voluntary benefits, group life, absence, and disability insurance, and network-based dental and vision products.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, net diluted earnings per share were $1.63 and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.75, while adjusted earnings reached $1.80 when excluding the impact of foreign currency, an annual increase of 1.1%. The Japan segment recorded a pretax margin of 34.3%, up 230 basis points, with a benefit ratio of 64% and an expense ratio of 20.2%. The United States segment recorded a pretax margin of 20.9%, down 160 basis points, with a benefit ratio of 49.5% and an expense ratio of 36.1%.

The provided data does not include consolidated revenue or net income figures for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, so the EDGAR filings for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 provide the latest complete anchor for these two items: revenue of $4.3 billion, net income of $1 billion, and earnings per share of $1.98. On a twelve-month basis ending in fiscal year 2026, revenue reached $18.1 billion, net income was $4.6 billion, and earnings per share were approximately $9.01, compared with revenue of $17.2 billion and net income of $3.6 billion in fiscal year 2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Aflac Japan sales increased 7% during the first half of fiscal year 2026 despite declining 5.6% to ¥19.6 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, and management expects fiscal year 2026 sales to exceed the fiscal year 2025 level. Support came from Tsumitasu and the Anshin Palette medical insurance product launched in December 2025.
  • Tsumitasu has become a driver for attracting younger customers and cross-selling; it represents 20% of sales, while the rate at which it was sold concurrently with cancer and medical insurance exceeded the original plan of 25%. The volume of in-force first-sector business also remained below 20% of total in-force business, preserving the dominance of third-sector products in the Japanese portfolio.
  • Aflac U.S. sales grew 2.6% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, while sales of group life, absence, and disability together with dental, vision, and voluntary benefits increased 7.1%. Dental and vision sales jumped 47%, and earned premiums for group products increased 13%, with $1.07 of voluntary benefits sold for every dollar of dental and vision sales.
  • The company repositioned $4.8 billion, or approximately 5% of the investment portfolio, through swap transactions to capture higher yields and improve asset-liability matching. Management expects the program to increase net investment income by more than $50 million annually on a run-rate basis, with a very limited impact on capital.
  • Aflac returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 and $2.6 billion during the first half, including $983 million in share repurchases and $309 million in dividends during the quarter. This was supported by unrestricted liquidity of $3.3 billion, an estimated ESR ratio of 226% or 240% with the USP factor, and a combined RBC ratio slightly above 600%.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Aflac combines strong profitability in Japan with high capital levels; Japan's pretax margin reached 34.3% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, while the ESR ratio with the USP factor reached 240% and the combined RBC ratio exceeded 600%.
  • +Tsumitasu and Anshin Palette provide a defined path for expanding the customer base in Japan, as sales in the first half of fiscal year 2026 increased 7% and concurrent sales with cancer and medical insurance exceeded the original plan of 25%.
  • +The group business in the United States is showing stronger growth than the overall business; earned premiums for group products increased 13%, and dental and vision sales rose 47% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.
  • +The repositioning of $4.8 billion in investments could add more than $50 million annually to net investment income on a run-rate basis, while expanding the internal reinsurance limit in Japan to 30% of FSA reserves gives the company room to improve balance-sheet efficiency and return on equity.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $118.86, with a “Neutral” consensus and a wide range between $99 and $138; the average is below the 52-week range high of $130.22, while the highest target exceeds that high. No price-to-earnings multiple is available in the provided data, and the Wolfe Research downgrade in August 2026 highlights that valuation is affected by concerns about premiums and the benefit ratio in Japan despite strong capital and share repurchases.

HoldAnalyst target: $118.86(+3.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Aflac's results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026?

Net diluted earnings per share were $1.63 and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.75 in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. Excluding the impact of foreign currency, adjusted earnings were $1.80 per share, an annual increase of 1.1%. The Japan segment supported results with a pretax margin of 34.3%, while variable investment income falling $72 million short of expectations offset part of this support.

Is Aflac Japan's business still growing in fiscal year 2026?

Aflac Japan sales declined 5.6% to ¥19.6 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, but increased 7% during the first half. Management expects fiscal year 2026 sales to exceed the fiscal year 2025 level, with the ¥80 billion target remaining within reach. In contrast, earned premiums declined 3.7% in yen, and the benefit ratio reached 64% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.

How important are Tsumitasu and Anshin Palette to Aflac's growth?

Tsumitasu represents approximately 20% of Aflac Japan sales and targets younger and middle-aged customers interested in yen-denominated savings. The rate at which it was sold concurrently with cancer and medical insurance exceeded the original plan of 25%. Anshin Palette, launched in December 2025, maintained momentum that enabled sales in the first half of fiscal year 2026 to exceed the corresponding period of fiscal year 2025.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Japan's results remain under pressure from premium contraction and a higher benefit ratio; earned premiums declined 3.7% in yen and core premiums fell 1.4% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, and management expects the fiscal year 2026 benefit ratio to be at the upper end of the 60% to 63% range.
  • −Management lowered its fiscal year 2026 outlook for net earned premium growth in the United States to slightly below the 3% to 6% range, after previously expecting the lower end of the range. In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, the benefit ratio increased 220 basis points to 49.5% and the pretax margin declined 160 basis points to 20.9% due to higher group disability claims.
  • −Quarterly sales in Japan declined 5.6% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 following a strong comparison related to the launch of Miraito, while Anshin Palette sales also declined sequentially from the first quarter to the second quarter. Despite 7% growth in the first half, achieving growth in fiscal year 2026 depends on continued momentum from new products and a reduction in policy cancellation and reissuance activity.
  • −Variable investment income was $72 million below long-term return expectations in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, and adjusted net investment income in Japan declined 2.9%. The company also recorded impairments of $11 million on invested assets in the United States and ¥15.8 billion on securities under the Japanese FSA basis.
  • −Japan's expense base faces inflation of approximately 3% and potential pressure from a weaker yen and higher energy prices. Management explained that any deterioration in the Middle East situation could increase the risk of a weaker Japanese economy and accelerating inflation through oil prices, even as Japan's expense ratio remained at 20.2% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.
  • −Wolfe Research downgraded AFL to “Underperform” in August 2026 due to concerns related to its Japanese operations. This caution is consistent with the wide range of analyst targets between $99 and $138, reflecting significant divergence in assessments of the company's ability to maintain margins and growth.
  • How is Aflac using capital in fiscal year 2026?

    The company returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 and $2.6 billion during the first half. The quarter included $983 million in share repurchases and $309 million in dividends, with management committed to extending its 43-year record of dividend increases during fiscal year 2026. Unrestricted liquidity reached $3.3 billion, or $2.3 billion above the internal minimum of $1 billion.

    Do insider transactions and Japan Post Group provide a negative signal for AFL shares?

    Data for the three months ended August 24, 2026 showed net insider selling of $66.4 million across 68 sales with no purchases. Insider sales may be prearranged, so they remain a weaker signal than changes in premiums, margins, and operating guidance. Japan Post Group also sold $1.5 million in shares on August 21, 2026, but it continued to own more than 50 million shares, representing a 10% stake.