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American Financial Group, Inc.
AFGE

AFGE American Financial Group, Inc.

American Financial Group, Inc. · NYSE
Market Open
16.83
▲ ⁦+0.12%⁩ (+0.02)
Market Cap$1.4B
Beta0.69
52w Low52w High
15.6019.24
Last Week
⁦+1.26%⁩
Last Month
⁦+5.65%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+6.65%⁩
Last Year
⁦-11.65%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall78
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 5/9Better than 78% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
98
1.5x▲17.4xTop tier
▸
Growth
26
-0.2%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
93
——Top tier
▸
Safety
22
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
86
41.28%▲0.18%Top tier
▸
Momentum
53
-16.9%▼1.3%Around median
▸
Sentiment
1
1▼3Bottom tier
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    1.47x
    3.02x24.14x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    1.41x
    2.61x20.85x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -0.2%
    -36.3%104.9%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    25.7%
    -99.9%193.6%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    41.3%
    0.0%8.8%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    60.7%
    11.9%103.5%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Last updated: 2026-09-02Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

American Financial Group, Inc. operates in specialty property and casualty insurance through 36 businesses and derives its results from collecting premiums, generating underwriting profits, and investing available funds within a portfolio totaling $17.1 billion as of June 30, 2026. Its portfolio includes Property and Transportation, Specialty Casualty, and Specialty Financial groups, with specific exposures such as crop insurance, commercial auto, workers' compensation, financial institutions, and lender-placed property. This diversity provides the company with multiple sources of growth, but it also ties results to factors such as catastrophe losses, social inflation, crop prices, and alternative investment returns.

In Q2 FY2026, the company reported revenue of $2.0 billion, net income of $248 million, and earnings per share of $2.99, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 12.4%. Core operating earnings were $2.82 per share, up 32% year over year, with an annualized core operating return on equity of 19.2%. Its specialty property and casualty insurance operations also achieved a combined ratio of 91.5%, compared with 93.1% in Q2 FY2025, and set a new second-quarter record for pre-tax operating income.

Gross and net written premiums increased by 7% and 6%, respectively, in Q2 FY2026. By group, the combined ratio was 90.3% in Property and Transportation, 94.5% in Specialty Casualty, and 85.6% in Specialty Financial, while gross premiums increased by 8%, 5%, and 10% in these groups, respectively. Net investment income in the property and casualty operations also increased by 23% year over year, supported by alternative investment returns reaching 7.1%, compared with 1.2% in the corresponding period.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Underwriting economics improved in Q2 FY2026, as the combined ratio for specialty property and casualty operations declined by 1.6 points to 91.5%, alongside 6% growth in net written premiums and average renewal rate increases of approximately 4%, including workers' compensation.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The Property and Transportation Group delivered the strongest operating improvement, with the combined ratio declining by 4.9 points to 90.3% and gross premiums increasing by 8%, supported by crop insurance, new business opportunities, increased exposures, and an improved pricing environment across several transportation businesses. Renewal rates in the group increased by approximately 8%, while the increase in commercial auto liability was 15%.
  • The $17.1 billion investment portfolio helped increase net investment income in the property and casualty operations by 23%, with the ability to invest funds in fixed-income securities at yields of approximately 5.5%. The annualized return on alternative investments was 7.1% in Q2 FY2026, compared with 1.2% in the corresponding period.
  • The company expects to complete the sale of Charleston Harbor Resort and Marina in Q3 FY2026, subject to customary approvals and conditions, with an estimated pre-tax core operating gain of approximately $125 million, or $1.20 per share. This gain was not included in the assumptions of the company's original business plan.
  • Artificial intelligence investments focus on automating insurance submissions, document intelligence, claims workflow automation, and AI-assisted recorded statements, while underwriting knowledge management applications remain at an early stage. Management indicated that productivity improvements are being achieved, with greater progress in the use of technology within claims than in underwriting.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +In Q2 FY2026, the company recorded simultaneous growth in premiums, underwriting profitability, and investment income, with core operating earnings per share increasing by 32% and annualized core operating return on equity reaching 19.2%.
    • +The diversity of 36 insurance businesses strengthens American Financial Group's ability to capitalize on varied opportunities, and approximately three-quarters of the businesses recorded premium growth during the six months ended June 30, 2026. The company also maintained overall renewal rate increases for 40 consecutive quarters.
    • +Combined ratios of 90.3% in Property and Transportation and 85.6% in Specialty Financial demonstrate strong underwriting margins, while commercial auto liability returned to a small underwriting profit for the second consecutive quarter amid rate increases of 15%.
    • +Capital generation provides flexibility in its deployment; the company returned approximately $100 million to shareholders during Q2 FY2026, including $26 million in share repurchases and a quarterly dividend of $0.88 per share. Management expects to continue generating substantial excess capital during the remainder of FY2026, allowing it to consider acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Q2 FY2026 results partly depend on favorable prior-year reserve development, which reduced the combined ratio by 3.4 points, compared with 0.7 points in the corresponding period. Therefore, a meaningful portion of the improvement in the combined ratio resulted from re-estimating reserves for prior claims rather than from accident-year performance alone.
    • −Social inflation remains a risk to long-tail casualty businesses, so the company maintained conservative initial loss estimates in exposed businesses. The Specialty Casualty Group's combined ratio also increased to 94.5% in Q2 FY2026 from 93.9% in the corresponding period, despite premium growth.
    • −The workers' compensation business faces pricing weakness and geographic variation; rates declined by approximately 2% in Q2 FY2026 and by approximately 3% during the first half. California represents approximately 14% of this business, and management stated that underwriting results there are weak. It also expected workers' compensation results to become less robust in the future, although they remain strong.
    • −Crop insurance profitability in FY2026 is tied to yields and prices during the second half, with moisture levels through August and early September remaining an important factor. The company records most crop profits in Q4 FY2026 after actual production and claims become clear, creating seasonality and uncertainty in the timing of earnings.
    • −Some Specialty Casualty markets face competition from managing general agents and capital supporting fronting arrangements, and management acknowledged that this competition has an impact in some parts of the market. In Specialty Financial, renewal pricing declined by less than 1% during Q2 FY2026 despite 10% premium growth.
    • −The stock's 52-week range was between $15.6501 and $19.41, meaning the upper end is approximately 24% above the lower end. The available data do not provide a reference price-to-earnings multiple that can be used to determine whether AFGE's valuation is low or high relative to its earnings.

    Valuation

    AFGE's 52-week range extends from $15.6501 to $19.41, with the upper end approximately 24% above the lower end, illustrating the breadth of its valuation movement during the period. A more precise relative assessment cannot be established from the provided data using a price-to-earnings multiple or a consensus price target, so underwriting performance, investment returns, and the expected gain from the sale of Charleston Harbor Resort and Marina remain the primary operating pillars for valuing the company.

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How did American Financial Group perform in Q2 FY2026?

    The company reported revenue of $2.0 billion, net income of $248 million, and earnings per share of $2.99. Core operating earnings were $2.82 per share, up 32% year over year. Its specialty property and casualty operations also achieved a combined ratio of 91.5% and an annualized core operating return on equity of 19.2%.

    Which businesses drove premium growth in Q2 FY2026?

    The company's gross and net written premiums increased by 7% and 6%, respectively. In Property and Transportation, gross premiums increased by 8%, supported by crop insurance, new business opportunities, increased exposures, and improved pricing in some transportation businesses. Gross premiums also increased by 5% in Specialty Casualty and 10% in Specialty Financial, with growth in the financial institutions business serving as a key driver for the latter group.

    How important is American Financial Group's investment portfolio to earnings?

    The investment portfolio totaled $17.1 billion as of June 30, 2026, with approximately two-thirds invested in fixed-income securities. Net investment income in the property and casualty operations increased by 23% year over year during Q2 FY2026, with new investment yields of approximately 5.5% on fixed-income securities. The annualized return on alternative investments also increased to 7.1% from 1.2% in the corresponding period, while management expects a long-term annual return of 10% or more on these investments.

    What is the expected impact of the sale of Charleston Harbor Resort and Marina?

    In April 2026, AFG entered into definitive agreements to sell Charleston Harbor Resort and Marina. The company expects to complete the transaction in Q3 FY2026, subject to the necessary approvals and satisfaction of customary closing conditions. The pre-tax core operating gain is estimated at approximately $125 million, or $1.20 per share, and will be included in net investment income and allocated equally between the property and casualty operations and the parent company.

    What are the main operating risks facing AFG in FY2026?

    Social inflation remains important in long-tail casualty businesses and has prompted the company to remain conservative in its initial loss estimates despite improvement in commercial auto liability. Workers' compensation pricing also declined by 2% in Q2 FY2026, and results in California, which represents 14% of this business, were weak. Crop insurance results depend on yields and prices during the second half of FY2026, while catastrophe losses added 1.8 points to the quarter's combined ratio.

    How does American Financial Group use artificial intelligence?

    The company uses artificial intelligence to automate insurance submissions, analyze documents, automate claims workflows, and summarize recorded statements and extract insights from them. Management stated during the August 5, 2026 call that it is seeing productivity improvements, with advanced uses in the crop insurance business. Underwriting knowledge management and support for underwriter decisions remain at an early stage, and their applications are undergoing several trials.