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Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.
AERO

AERO Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. · NYSE
Market Closed
15.01
▼ ⁦-1.25%⁩ (-0.19)
Market Cap$2.2B
Beta1.83
52w Low52w High
12.2623.05
Last Week
⁦+1.56%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.70%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-6.25%⁩
Last Year
—
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall52
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 5/8Better than 52% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
95
10.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
28
4.6%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
79
19.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
42
2.1x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
22
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
8
—2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
74
4▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$15
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$20
⁦+33%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$20–$20⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$20
⁦+35%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦12.5⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$20–$20⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$20.00
⁦+33.2%⁩
Current Price $15.01·Median $20.00
Low
$20.00
High
$20.00
Street summary

AERO price target downgrade

Bearish tilt

The price target for 'Aeromexico' shares saw a sharp reduction of 23.08% over the past thirty days, as the consensus fell from 26 to 20. There is currently a lack of dispersion among analysts, as both the high and low estimates converged at the level of 20, reflecting a unified and more conservative view regarding the stock's fair value compared to previous periods.

As of 2026-08-19
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-23.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.33
Buy
Analyst coverage
9
Buy conviction
89%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time9 analysts rating
4
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.56 → 4.33
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-06-18
    Jefferies
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-03-24
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-02-19
    Barclays
    —· $32.00
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.31x
    5.69x45.54x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    9.51x
    4.57x36.58x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    3.69x
    3.43x27.47x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    26.7%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.6%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -93.2%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    23.5%
    8.6%54.6%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    19.2%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.14x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-14 data

Company Overview

Grupo Aeroméxico operates a domestic and international airline network focused on passenger transportation through a fleet that includes Boeing 787, Boeing 737, and Embraer 190 aircraft. Its revenue comes primarily from passenger tickets, particularly premium cabins, with additional sources including Aeromexico Rewards, VIP lounges, charter flights, car rentals, insurance, vacation packages, and the co-branded Aeromexico Inbursa credit card. In Q2 FY2026, premium revenue accounted for 43% of total revenue, up one percentage point year over year and 17 percentage points from 2019, while 39% of passengers participated in the rewards program, up 7 percentage points year over year.

In Q2 FY2026, the company recorded revenue of approximately $1.5 billion, up 30% year over year according to the earnings call, despite capacity growth, measured in available seat miles, of only 1.9%. Gross profit was $181.0 million, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of approximately 12.1%, while net income was a loss of $57.5 million and earnings per share were negative $0.39. In contrast, operating income was $68 million with an operating margin of 5%, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $260 million with a margin of 18%.

Revenue for the trailing twelve-month period in 2026 was approximately $5.7 billion, with gross profit of $1.3 billion, net income of $215.4 million, and earnings per share of $1.456. This compares with revenue of $5.4 billion, net income of $351.9 million, and earnings per share of $2.4 in FY2025, illustrating that revenue growth did not prevent a decline in cumulative profitability. The company ended Q2 FY2026 with more than $1 billion in cash and total liquidity exceeding $1.2 billion, in addition to an undrawn $100 million revolving credit facility.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company increased revenue per available seat mile by 10.5% and passenger revenue per available seat mile by 10% year over year in Q2 FY2026, benefiting from international demand, pricing, and premium revenue growth, alongside limited capacity growth of 1.9%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Aeroméxico recovered approximately 70% of the fuel cost pressure through pricing and revenue management according to the financial presentation, while management cited 75% during the question-and-answer session, compared with a previous target of 50%; second-half guidance targets recovering more than the full remaining impact of higher fuel costs.
  • For Q3 FY2026, the company expects revenue between $1.59 billion and $1.62 billion and an operating margin in the mid-teens, followed by Q4 FY2026 revenue growth between 14.5% and 16.5% and an operating margin between 15.5% and 18.5%. For FY2026, it targets revenue growth between 13% and 14% and an operating margin between 11% and 13%.
  • Operational expansion is supported by the delivery of two Boeing 787 aircraft and the expected delivery of an additional aircraft during FY2026, along with the company securing approximately ten additional slot pairs at Mexico City Airport as airport operations increase from 44 to 46 operations per hour during the IATA winter season. Management plans to use this capacity for wide-body flights and to restore some domestic capacity, while increasing Seoul flights from five to seven per week.
  • The Mexico City–Barcelona and Monterrey–Paris routes had starts that management described as strong, and the company decided to operate the Monterrey–Paris route year-round. Additionally, half of the Aeromexico Inbursa cardholders who had received the card by the July 14, 2026 call did not previously have a co-branded credit card, indicating that the loyalty ecosystem is adding new customers rather than merely shifting existing ones.
  • On August 24, 2026, the company announced its intention to present shareholders with a share repurchase program of up to $100 million annually. Implementation is not final, as it remains subject to approval by the general shareholders' meeting and compliance with Mexican Securities Market Law and the company's bylaws.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The company demonstrated clear strength in pricing and revenue quality during Q2 FY2026; TRASM increased by 10.5% and PRASM by 10%, while premium revenue reached a record 43% of the mix despite fuel-related price increases.
    • +Liquidity exceeding $1.2 billion and $362 million in operating cash flow generation in Q2 FY2026 provide flexibility to fund the fleet and improve the balance sheet, and the company reduced financial debt by approximately $17 million without drawing on the $100 million revolving facility.
    • +Greater utilization of existing aircraft and crews could increase revenue with limited additional fixed costs; the company targets capacity growth between 6.5% and 8% in Q4 FY2026, with an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin between 28% and 31%.
    • +Revenue sources not directly tied to tickets are growing through Aeromexico Rewards, reopened lounges, charter flights, retail products, and the Inbursa card. Passenger participation in the rewards program reached 39% in Q2 FY2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 7 percentage points.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Fuel remains the largest direct risk to earnings; the company absorbed pressure of approximately $220 million compared with FY2025 in Q2 FY2026, and the cost was approximately $30 million above the assumptions in its April 2026 guidance. This contributed to limiting the operating margin to 5% despite record revenue.
    • −Non-fuel operating expenses increased by 13% in Q2 FY2026 due to the strength of the Mexican peso, employee wage pressures, and higher depreciation associated with fleet growth. Maintenance costs also increased after the renewal of three component maintenance program contracts and the addition of 25 aircraft during the previous fiscal year, which could limit the profitability benefit from revenue growth.
    • −The company recorded a net loss of $57.5 million in Q2 FY2026, compared with net income of $11.0 million in Q1 FY2026 and $164.9 million in Q4 FY2025. Net income for the trailing twelve-month period in 2026 also declined to $215.4 million from $351.9 million in FY2025, despite revenue increasing to $5.7 billion from $5.4 billion.
    • −Management expects Q3 FY2026 margins to be modestly lower than the strong levels recorded a year earlier because revenue growth offsets most of the fuel increase but raises the revenue base and pressures the margin percentage. It also said FY2026 earnings will remain slightly below FY2025 despite expecting earnings growth in Q3 and Q4 on a year-over-year basis.
    • −Domestic demand experienced a noticeable disruption in June 2026, and management estimated lost domestic revenue due to changes in World Cup-related travel patterns at approximately $24 million. Although the impact was described as temporary, the company explained that it would reduce capacity if fuel volatility persisted and demand was insufficient, while still being required to cover its Mexico City slots if the operational exemption is not extended.
    • −Domestic competition and the ability to pass through fuel costs remain uncertain factors; management said domestic market yields in April and May 2026 did not reflect higher fuel costs as quickly as the international market did. It also noted that the competitive landscape could be affected by a transaction submitted to competition authorities, without providing an outcome or a timetable for its resolution.

    Valuation

    The average analyst target is $20, which is also the highest and lowest target, with a consensus Buy rating; this target is approximately 13% below the 52-week range high of $23.05 and approximately 63% above its low of $12.26. No published price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, making it difficult to anchor the valuation to a clear earnings multiple despite trailing twelve-month earnings per share in 2026 of approximately $1.456. The Buy consensus should be weighed against the Q2 FY2026 loss, the decline in cumulative net income, and fuel pressure, in addition to the fact that identical high and low targets of $20 do not provide a range reflecting differences among analyst scenarios.

    BuyAnalyst target: $20(+33.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove AERO's Q2 FY2026 results?

    Revenue was approximately $1.5 billion, up 30% year over year according to the July 14, 2026 call, with TRASM increasing by 10.5% and PRASM by 10%. This was supported by international demand, pricing, and a 43% premium revenue mix, while capacity increased by only 1.9%. In contrast, fuel pressure of approximately $220 million compared with FY2025 led to a net loss of $57.5 million, despite operating income of $68 million and an operating margin of 5%.

    What is Aeroméxico's guidance for the remainder of FY2026?

    The company expects revenue between $1.59 billion and $1.62 billion in Q3 FY2026, with an operating margin in the mid-teens. In Q4 FY2026, it targets revenue growth between 14.5% and 16.5% and an operating margin between 15.5% and 18.5%. FY2026 guidance includes capacity growth between 2% and 3%, revenue growth between 13% and 14%, and an operating margin between 11% and 13%.

    How do fuel prices affect AERO's profitability?

    In Q2 FY2026, the company faced fuel pressure of approximately $220 million compared with FY2025, including approximately $30 million above the assumptions in its April 2026 guidance. Management said it recovered between 70% and 75% of the impact through pricing and revenue management, compared with a previous target of 50%. Second-half guidance assumes recovery of more than the full remaining impact, but continued fuel volatility could prompt the company to adjust capacity if demand does not support the required pricing.

    What role do premium products and Aeromexico Rewards play in the company's growth?

    Premium revenue reached 43% of the mix in Q2 FY2026, up one percentage point year over year and 17 percentage points from 2019. A total of 39% of passengers participated in Aeromexico Rewards, up 7 percentage points year over year, supporting loyalty revenue and revenue quality. The company also launched the Aeromexico Inbursa card, and half of those who had received it by the July 14, 2026 call did not previously have a co-branded credit card.

    How does Aeroméxico plan to increase capacity and operating profitability?

    The company took delivery of two Boeing 787 aircraft and expects an additional aircraft during FY2026, alongside securing approximately ten additional slot pairs in Mexico City during the IATA winter season. Management targets capacity growth between 6.5% and 8% in Q4 FY2026 by utilizing existing aircraft and crews more intensively, without a comparable need to increase fixed costs. The plan includes increasing Seoul service from five to seven flights per week and supporting the Mexico City–Barcelona and Monterrey–Paris routes, which management described as having started strongly.

    Has AERO's $100 million share repurchase program taken effect?

    On August 24, 2026, Grupo Aeroméxico announced its intention to submit a proposal for share repurchases of up to $100 million annually. The data did not describe the program as effective, but instead tied its implementation to approval by the general shareholders' meeting. Any implementation will be subject to Mexican Securities Market Law and the company's bylaws, so the full amount should not be treated as a confirmed capital distribution.